NBA Home favorites: Miami Heat: ATS Record Since 2007-08
Teams laying points at home. 654 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 310-334-10 (48.1%)
Straight up: 462-192 (70.6%)
Over/under: 350-297-7 (54.1% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.84 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -1.0%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2017: 179-185 (49.2%); 2018-2027: 131-149 (46.8%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2026 | 15-14 | 51.7% |
| 2025 | 12-13 | 48.0% |
| 2024 | 15-16 | 48.4% |
| 2023 | 13-23-1 | 36.1% |
| 2022 | 23-21 | 52.3% |
| 2021 | 12-14-2 | 46.2% |
| 2020 | 17-11 | 60.7% |
| 2019 | 10-20 | 33.3% |
| 2018 | 13-15-2 | 46.4% |
| 2017 | 15-10 | 60.0% |
| 2016 | 24-17 | 58.5% |
| 2015 | 9-16 | 36.0% |
| 2014 | 24-26-1 | 48.0% |
| 2013 | 28-25 | 52.8% |
| 2012 | 26-18-2 | 59.1% |
| 2011 | 21-29-1 | 42.0% |
| 2010 | 14-18-1 | 43.8% |
| 2009 | 16-14 | 53.3% |
| 2008 | 2-12 | 14.3% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA home favorites for the Miami Heat?
310-334-10 against the spread (48.1%) in 654 team-games since 2007-08, 462-192 straight up and 350-297-7 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -1.0%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 179-185 (49.2%); 2018-2027: 131-149 (46.8%).