Vegas Golden Knights vs Boston Bruins prediction: Swayman's Bruins test Vegas, the road favorite with the shaky penalty kill
Vegas controls the shot count and Boston gets the saves, and whether Carter Hart is sharp after his lower-body injury may decide which edge wins out at TD Garden.
| Line | Vegas Golden Knights -115 (puck line -1.5) |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 6 |
- Expect Vegas to outshoot Boston, and expect the Bruins to lean on Jeremy Swayman and opportunistic finishing to keep it tight at home.
- Vegas's power play, 7th in the league, against a Boston team that is shorthanded more than most. The Knights' 26th-ranked penalty kill cuts the other way.
- Vegas is a -115 road favorite with a total of 6.0. Vegas has gone over in 11 of 15 games, while Boston is 9-6 to the under.
Boston wins without the puck
The Bruins sit at 10-4-1 and have dominated at home, where they are 6-1-0. They have done it without controlling play. Boston's shot share (its share of all shots in its games) is 48.2%, 24th of 32 teams, and it allows 28.3 shots per game, 22nd.
Two things cover that gap. Boston ranks 1st in team save percentage at 91.5% and 4th in shooting percentage at 14.0%. That is a team getting the best goaltending in the league and finishing at a high clip. Both can cool, and 15 games is a small sample in a low-scoring sport.
The team has confirmed Jeremy Swayman for tonight. He carries a .912 save percentage and a 2.35 goals-against average this season. Boston needed overtime and a comeback from two goals down to beat Chicago 5-4 on Saturday, with Elias Lindholm scoring the winner.
The question in the Vegas crease
Carter Hart is the probable starter, though Vegas hasn't confirmed it. Hart left the Oct. 27 morning skate with a lower-body injury, returned to practice Thursday, and was not the starter against New Jersey. Previews posted today expect him to be available. His season line is a .889 save percentage and a 2.76 goals-against average.
The schedule complicates things. Vegas opens a four-game road trip here and plays at Pittsburgh on Tuesday, so the Knights are likely to split Hart and Adin Hill across the back-to-back. Hill's numbers are close to Hart's: .891 and 2.84. Whoever starts, Vegas's 88.5% team save percentage ranks 14th, well behind Boston's.
Special teams cut both ways
Vegas's sharpest weapon is its power play (power-play goals per opportunity), which converts at 27.3%, 7th in the league. Boston feeds that kind of unit. The Bruins are shorthanded 3.47 times per game, 25th, and rank 30th in penalty minutes.
The Knights stay out of the box, ranking 2nd in times shorthanded. When they do take penalties, though, they bleed. Their penalty kill stops just 69.4% of chances, 26th of 32. Boston's power play is middling at 19.6%, 20th, so this matchup favors whichever team's discipline holds.
Stars and lineup shuffles
Jack Eichel leads Vegas with 20 points in 15 games. Mark Stone has 9 goals on just 30 shots, a 30.0% rate that rarely lasts. Mitch Marner has been a setup man, with 13 assists against only 2 goals.
For Boston, David Pastrnak has 19 points and a team-high 50 shots. Center James Hagens has 11 points while averaging 13.2 minutes.
Vegas expects Dylan Coghlan to replace Ville Heinola on defense. Victor Olofsson (upper body) has been skating and could return on this road trip, but nothing confirms him for tonight. Former Bruin Parker Wotherspoon remains on injured reserve. Boston has no injury report, and Matt Poitras returns to center the fourth line, with Sean Kuraly coming out.
What the market is pricing
Books make Vegas a -115 road favorite despite Boston's better record. The puck line is Vegas -1.5 and the total is 6.0, unchanged since our feed first saw the game.
The Knights' recent form doesn't help that case. They lost 2-6 to Tampa Bay and St. Louis and 2-5 to New Jersey, each time as the favorite. They are 6-9 on the puck line this season. Boston is 11-4 on the puck line. The totals records split cleanly: Vegas is 11-4 to the over, while Boston leans under at 9-6. Vegas also allows 1.07 first-period goals per game, 23rd, so a quick Boston start would not be a surprise.
Vegas Golden Knights vs Boston Bruins line movement and odds
| Book | Knights ML | Bruins ML | Knights spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -115 | -105 | -1.5 (+200) | o6 (-120) |
| DraftKings | -118 | -102 | -1.5 (+215) | o6.5 (+105) |
| ESPN BET | -110 | -110 | +1.5 (-290) | o6.5 (+105) |
| Fanatics | -115 | -105 | -1.5 (+210) | o6.5 (+105) |
| FanDuel | -115 | -104 | -1.5 (+198) | o6.5 (+108) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -115 | -115 | +1.5 (-300) | o6.5 (+100) |
| Caesars | -115 | -103 | -1.5 (+210) | o6 (-120) |
Where the money is on Vegas Golden Knights vs Boston Bruins
On the Kalshi moneyline: Vegas Golden Knights: 38% of bets, 43% of the money; Boston Bruins: 62% of bets, 57% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Vegas Golden Knights -1.5: 65% of bets, 74% of the money; Boston Bruins +1.5: 36% of bets, 26% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 40% of bets, 30% of the money; Under 6.5: 60% of bets, 71% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: Vegas Golden Knights (1 wallet, $765) vs Boston Bruins (3 wallets, $57,934). Largest: Barren-Hospital-Pilgrim $48,624 on Boston Bruins, Forked-Puffin $7,350 on Boston Bruins, Stickman22 $1,960 on Boston Bruins. Spread: Boston Bruins (1 wallet, $1,373). Largest: Barren-Hospital-Pilgrim $1,373 on Boston Bruins. Total: over (1 wallet, $174) vs under (1 wallet, $3,960). Largest: Barren-Hospital-Pilgrim $3,960 on under, Near-Clavier $174 on over.
Vegas Golden Knights vs Boston Bruins stats (this season)
| Stat | Vegas Golden Knights | Boston Bruins |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-5-1 | 10-4-1 |
| Goals per game | 3.47 (10th of 32) | 3.67 (6th of 32) |
| Goals allowed per game | 2.93 (10th of 32) | 2.40 (4th of 32) |
| Goal differential per game | 0.53 (7th of 32) | 1.27 (3rd of 32) |
| Shots on goal per game | 29.1 (8th of 32) | 26.3 (20th of 32) |
| Shots allowed per game | 25.6 (9th of 32) | 28.3 (22nd of 32) |
| Shot share | 53.2% (9th of 32) | 48.2% (24th of 32) |
| Shooting % | 11.9% (14th of 32) | 14.0% (4th of 32) |
| Team save % | 88.5% (14th of 32) | 91.5% (1st of 32) |
| Power play % | 27.3% (7th of 32) | 19.6% (20th of 32) |
| Penalty kill % | 69.4% (26th of 32) | 76.9% (18th of 32) |
| Faceoff % | 50.5% (15th of 32) | 54.8% (3rd of 32) |
Key players
- Jack Eichel (Vegas Golden Knights): Leads Vegas with 20 points in 15 games this season, including 7 goals.
- Mark Stone (Vegas Golden Knights): Has 9 goals on 30 shots this season, a 30.0% shooting rate.
- Mitch Marner (Vegas Golden Knights): Has 13 assists but only 2 goals this season, shooting 6.5%.
- Carter Hart (Vegas Golden Knights): Is the probable starter after a lower-body injury, with a .889 save percentage this season.
- Jeremy Swayman (Boston Bruins): Confirmed for tonight, with a .912 save percentage and 2.35 goals-against average this season.
- David Pastrnak (Boston Bruins): Leads Boston with 19 points and 50 shots this season.
- Elias Lindholm (Boston Bruins): Scored Saturday's overtime winner and has 12 points this season.
- James Hagens (Boston Bruins): Has 11 points this season while averaging 13.2 minutes of ice time.
Numbers that matter
| Boston team save % | 91.5% | Ranks 1st of 32 and covers a shot share that ranks 24th. |
|---|---|---|
| Vegas penalty kill | 69.4% | Ranks 26th, a weak spot against any Boston power play. |
| Vegas power play | 27.3% | Ranks 7th and faces a Boston team that is 25th in times shorthanded. |
| Vegas moneyline | -115 | Vegas is the road favorite even though Boston has the better record. |
| Vegas over/under record | 11-4 | Vegas games have mostly gone over, while Boston leans under at 9-6, ahead of a 6.0 total. |
Vegas Golden Knights vs Boston Bruins: quick answers
What is the over/under for Vegas Golden Knights vs Boston Bruins?
The total is 6 goals.
When is Vegas Golden Knights vs Boston Bruins?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 7:10 PM ET.
Where is Vegas Golden Knights vs Boston Bruins played?
TD Garden, Boston.
Has the line moved for Vegas Golden Knights vs Boston Bruins?
No: Vegas Golden Knights has stayed at -1.5, and the total is still 6.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Vegas Golden Knights vs Boston Bruins?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Vegas Golden Knights: 38% of bets, 43% of the money; Boston Bruins: 62% of bets, 57% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Vegas Golden Knights -1.5: 65% of bets, 74% of the money; Boston Bruins +1.5: 36% of bets, 26% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 40% of bets, 30% of the money; Under 6.5: 60% of bets, 71% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Vegas Golden Knights vs Boston Bruins?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: Vegas Golden Knights (1 wallet, $765) vs Boston Bruins (3 wallets, $57,934). Largest: Barren-Hospital-Pilgrim $48,624 on Boston Bruins, Forked-Puffin $7,350 on Boston Bruins, Stickman22 $1,960 on Boston Bruins. Spread: Boston Bruins (1 wallet, $1,373). Largest: Barren-Hospital-Pilgrim $1,373 on Boston Bruins. Total: over (1 wallet, $174) vs under (1 wallet, $3,960). Largest: Barren-Hospital-Pilgrim $3,960 on under, Near-Clavier $174 on over. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.