Toronto Maple Leafs vs Seattle Kraken prediction: Maple Leafs' league-best penalty kill tests a Kraken team without McCann
Toronto kills nearly every penalty and converts its own chances, while Seattle, now missing its top scorer, concedes shots and power-play goals.
| Line | Toronto Maple Leafs -135 (puck line -1.5) |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 6.5 |
- Toronto should carry more of the puck against a Seattle team that ranks 29th in shot share and now plays without Jared McCann.
- Toronto's power play (28.9%, 5th) against Seattle's penalty kill (70.6%, 25th) is the mismatch most likely to swing the night.
- Toronto is a -120 moneyline favorite with the total at 6.5; Seattle games have gone over in nine of 12.
The special teams gap
The widest gap in this matchup shows up when someone goes to the box. Toronto's power play converts 28.9% of its chances (power-play goals per opportunity), 5th in the league. Seattle's penalty kill stops only 70.6%, which ranks 25th of 32.
The other side of the ledger is just as lopsided. The Maple Leafs' penalty kill sits 1st in the NHL at 93.6%, so Seattle's middle-of-the-pack power play has little room to work.
Seattle's best defense is to stay out of trouble. The Kraken are shorthanded 2.83 times a night, 7th-fewest, while Toronto ranks 21st in that stat. If the Leafs' discipline slips, that kill has been strong enough to cover for it so far.
Seattle gives up shots and scores anyway
The Kraken have won with an unusual formula. They allow 31.8 shots a game, 31st in the league, and their shot share (their portion of all shots in their games) is 45.1%, 29th. Yet they finish at 13.7%, 5th-best, which explains how a team that is outshot most nights still sits at 7-4-1.
That formula got harder to sustain on Sunday. Jared McCann, the Kraken's top scorer, is out for about 10 weeks with a lower-body injury. Kaapo Kakko now leads the remaining group with 10 points.
Toronto brings far more firepower. Auston Matthews has 20 points in 14 games, and William Nylander scored twice in the 7-2 rout at Edmonton, including his 300th career goal. Both are shooting above 20%, a pace a 14-game sample tends to flatter.
Goalies: probable, not promised
Philipp Grubauer is the probable starter for Seattle, and he has earned the net: a .907 save percentage and 2.76 goals-against average in seven appearances. Joey Daccord has struggled at .882, which is why Grubauer is expected to get this one.
Toronto has not confirmed its starter. Sergei Bobrovsky is listed as the probable, carrying a .897 save percentage and 3.09 GAA. Anthony Stolarz has been sharper at .907 and made 30 saves in the win at Edmonton. With the Leafs allowing 30.3 shots a night, 26th, whichever goalie starts will be busy.
Health and schedule
Kirill Marchenko, Toronto's third-leading scorer with 14 points, is day-to-day with a lower-body injury as of Tuesday. John Tavares remains out and has not traveled on the trip. Chris Tanev skated Monday in a non-contact jersey but has no return date.
Seattle has had four days off since a 5-1 home loss to Minnesota. Toronto arrives on two days' rest after a 5-2 loss in Calgary snapped a four-game winning streak. The Kraken won both meetings last season, including a 5-2 result in Seattle.
What the market says
Books have Toronto at -120 and Seattle at even money, with the Kraken getting 1.5 goals on the puck line. The total of 6.5 hasn't moved since our feed first saw the game.
The over has been the steady story for both clubs: Toronto is 9-5 to the over and Seattle 9-3. The Kraken are also 8-4 on the puck line, often as the underdog getting the 1.5 goals. One wrinkle for early bettors: Seattle scores 1.33 first-period goals a game, 2nd in the league.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Seattle Kraken line movement and odds
| Book | Leafs ML | Kraken ML | Leafs spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -145 | +115 | -1.5 (+154) | o6.5 (-130) |
| DraftKings | -130 | +110 | -1.5 (+180) | o6.5 (-120) |
| ESPN BET | -130 | +110 | -1.5 (+190) | o6.5 (-120) |
| Fanatics | -130 | +110 | -1.5 (+175) | o6.5 (-125) |
| FanDuel | -134 | +112 | -1.5 (+172) | o6.5 (-124) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -130 | +100 | -1.5 (+180) | o6.5 (-120) |
| Caesars | -131 | +110 | — | o6.5 (-130) |
Key players
- Auston Matthews (Toronto Maple Leafs): Leads Toronto with 20 points, including 9 goals, in 14 games this season.
- William Nylander (Toronto Maple Leafs): Has 9 goals on 41 shots this season and just reached 300 career goals.
- Sergei Bobrovsky (Toronto Maple Leafs): Owns a .897 save percentage and 3.09 GAA in nine games this season.
- Kirill Marchenko (Toronto Maple Leafs): Day-to-day with a lower-body injury after posting 14 points in 14 games this season.
- Philipp Grubauer (Seattle Kraken): Has a .907 save percentage and 2.76 GAA in seven games this season.
- Kaapo Kakko (Seattle Kraken): Leads the healthy Kraken with 10 points, eight of them assists, this season.
- Brandon Montour (Seattle Kraken): Logs 23.7 minutes a night with 9 points in 11 games this season.
Numbers that matter
| Toronto penalty kill | 93.6% | First in the NHL, which blunts one of Seattle's paths to goals. |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle penalty kill | 70.6% | Ranks 25th and faces a Toronto power play that sits 5th. |
| Seattle shot share | 45.1% | 29th in the league; the Kraken are routinely outshot and rely on finishing. |
| Toronto moneyline | -120 | Toronto is a modest road favorite with Seattle at even money. |
| Seattle over/under record | 9-3 | The over has hit in most Kraken games, with the total set at 6.5 here. |
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Seattle Kraken: quick answers
What is the over/under for Toronto Maple Leafs vs Seattle Kraken?
The total is 6.5 goals.
When is Toronto Maple Leafs vs Seattle Kraken?
Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 10:10 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Toronto Maple Leafs vs Seattle Kraken?
No: Toronto Maple Leafs has stayed at -1.5, and the total is still 6.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).