Philadelphia Flyers vs Washington Capitals prediction: Shorthanded, scoring-starved Flyers face rested Capitals on a back-to-back

An offense running on fumes

The Flyers have found a dozen ways to lose this month, and the root of most of them is the same: they can't score. Philadelphia averages 1.93 goals per game, 32nd of 32, and converts just 8.3% of its shots, also last in the league. It doesn't generate much volume either, owning only 43.5% of the shots in its games (shot share), 30th in the NHL.

The little scoring it has comes from a narrow group. Trevor Zegras leads the team with 12 points. Matvei Michkov has 8 goals, but on only 20 shots, a 40.0% shooting rate no player keeps up for long. If Michkov cools before the rest of the lineup heats up, the Flyers' margin gets even thinner.

Now they do it on the second night of a back-to-back, a day after a 4-3 overtime loss to Columbus in which they were outscored 3-0 in the first period, against a Capitals team that hasn't played since Saturday.

Goaltending keeps Philadelphia alive

What the Flyers do well happens in their own end. Their team save percentage of 89.4% ranks 7th, and they block 16.1 shots per game, 5th in the league. That combination helps explain why they've lost close: four of their 14 games have ended in overtime or shootout losses, the third number in their 3-7-4 record.

Joseph Woll is ESPN's probable starter, though the Flyers haven't confirmed it and it isn't clear who played Tuesday. Woll owns a .904 save percentage and a 2.99 goals-against average. Dan Vladar, the alternative, sits at .888.

For Washington, Logan Thompson is the probable starter after a lower-body injury. He practiced Monday and remained day-to-day; coach Spencer Carbery called the progress a "good sign." Thompson has a .901 save percentage and a 2.9 goals-against average. If he can't go, Charlie Lindgren (.886) is the fallback; he started Saturday's overtime win over Buffalo. Washington plays at Nashville on Thursday, which adds a wrinkle to how the Capitals manage their goalies this week.

The first period is Washington's

No team starts faster than the Capitals. They score 1.4 first-period goals per game, 1st in the NHL. They also give up 1.3 in the opening frame, 30th, so their games tend to open up early.

The Flyers sit at the other end: 0.57 first-period goals per game, 30th, while allowing only 0.71, 7th. If Washington's opening push lands against tired legs, Philadelphia's offense is poorly built to chase. If the Flyers survive the first 20 minutes level, the game drifts toward the low-event style they prefer.

Alex Tuch is the finisher to watch, with 7 goals and a 25.9% shooting rate. Dylan Strome matches him with 9 points.

Who's missing

Philadelphia's injured reserve list reads like a lineup card. Owen Tippett and Travis Konecny are on IR, Nikita Grebenkin is out at least four months after back surgery, and Cam York is on IR. Rasmus Ristolainen joined them Tuesday, placed on injured reserve retroactive to Oct. 24 after his return that night was cut short. Travis Sanheim, already logging 25.8 minutes a night, is absorbing more, and Hunter McDonald has moved up the depth chart.

Washington is healthier. Jakob Chychrun missed Monday's skate for maintenance but is expected to play. Rasmus Sandin remains on long-term injured reserve after knee surgery, and Vincent Desharnais is out for weeks after an appendectomy.

What the market is pricing

Books have Washington at -230 on the moneyline and Philadelphia at +190, with the Capitals laying 1.5 goals on the puck line. Neither the puck line nor the total of 6.0 has moved since our feed first saw the game.

The Flyers' trends cut against a blowout. They've covered the puck line in 8 of 14 games and gone under in 10 of 14, because even a bad offense rarely loses by multiple goals when its goaltending holds. Washington has gone over in 6 of 10, driven by those wild first periods.

The rivalry has been tight lately too. The teams split last season's series, and the Capitals won the final meeting 6-4 in Washington on March 31.