New Jersey Devils vs Colorado Avalanche prediction: Devils' shot flood tests Colorado's finishers in Denver rematch
New Jersey piles up shots like nobody else, but Colorado converts its chances at a far higher rate, and the night before in Dallas may decide who starts in goal for the Devils.
| Line | Colorado Avalanche -148 (puck line -1.5) |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 6.5 |
- Expect New Jersey to own the puck while Colorado wins on finishing. The Avalanche convert at 14.0%, the Devils at 9.6%.
- Goaltending is unsettled on both sides: Allen is projected for New Jersey after Hellebuyck plays Tuesday, and Colorado's starter is unconfirmed.
- Colorado is -182 with the total steady at 6.5; the Avalanche have gone over in 8 of 12 games this season.
Volume against finish
This rematch pits the league's best shot generator against one of its most efficient finishers. New Jersey averages 34.1 shots per game, 1st of 32, and allows just 23.9 (4th). The Devils control 58.8% of all shots in their games, 2nd in the league.
The problem is what happens after the shot. New Jersey scores on only 9.6% of them, 28th in the league. Colorado sits at 14.0%, 4th, which helps explain why the Avalanche score 4.08 goals per game, 2nd in the NHL, despite a more ordinary shot share.
Artturi Lehkonen is the extreme case: 10 goals on 22 shots. That pace won't last forever, but it shows how little volume Colorado needs.
Who's in the crease
Neither starter is settled. New Jersey's Connor Hellebuyck is confirmed for Tuesday in Dallas, his Devils debut, which makes Wednesday the second night of a back-to-back. Jake Allen is projected to start in Denver, though the Devils haven't announced it. Allen has a .886 save percentage and a 2.84 goals-against average this season.
Colorado's choice is murkier. Mackenzie Blackwood is the listed probable starter, but one projection has Scott Wedgewood starting instead, and that is also unconfirmed. Wedgewood was in net for Sunday's 6-2 loss in Nashville, where he was caught out of his crease on a 5-on-3 goal. Blackwood carries a .893 save percentage; Wedgewood owns a 3.48 goals-against average. Given New Jersey's shot volume, whoever starts should be busy.
Colorado searching for form
The Avalanche are 6-5-1 and have lost three of four. Coach Jared Bednar has called his team too passive, and the numbers back him up: Colorado allows 3.25 goals per game, 19th in the league, and 28.5 shots per game, 22nd. Home ice has helped, with a 4-1-1 record in Denver.
New Jersey arrives 7-4-0, though just 1-2-0 on the road. The Devils won the first meeting 4-3 on Oct. 20 in New Jersey, with Colorado trailing late. They also start fast defensively, allowing 0.55 first-period goals per game, best in the league.
Availability is mostly stable. Colorado's Zachary L'Heureux (upper body) is on injured reserve and expected out until at least Nov. 7, and Nicolas Roy (lower body) has been listed day-to-day with no Wednesday update. For New Jersey, Seamus Casey (knee) and Nick Bjugstad remain on injured reserve.
Special teams and the market
Neither penalty kill inspires confidence. New Jersey kills 74.1% of penalties (23rd) and Colorado 75.0% (22nd). The Devils limit the damage by staying out of the box, going shorthanded just 2.45 times per game, 3rd fewest.
The market makes Colorado a -182 favorite, with New Jersey at +152. The puck line has Colorado at -1.5, and the total has held at 6.5 since our feed first saw the game. Colorado games have gone over 8 times in 12, while the Devils are 5-6 to the over. Colorado's own puck line record sits at 7-5.
Key players
- Jack Hughes (New Jersey Devils): Hughes leads the Devils with 12 points this season but has scored just 3 goals on 39 shots.
- Arseny Gritsyuk (New Jersey Devils): Gritsyuk has been the exception to New Jersey's finishing woes, scoring 6 goals at a 24.0% shooting rate this season.
- Jake Allen (New Jersey Devils): The projected starter carries a .886 save percentage over 7 games this season.
- Nathan MacKinnon (Colorado Avalanche): MacKinnon has 21 points and 50 shots in 12 games this season, driving Colorado's attack.
- Artturi Lehkonen (Colorado Avalanche): Lehkonen has 10 goals on just 22 shots this season.
- Mackenzie Blackwood (Colorado Avalanche): The listed probable starter has a .893 save percentage and 2.91 goals-against average this season.
Numbers that matter
| Devils shots per game | 34.1 | First in the NHL, giving New Jersey control of play in most games. |
|---|---|---|
| Devils shooting % | 9.6% | Ranks 28th, the gap that keeps all that volume from becoming goals. |
| Avalanche goals per game | 4.08 | Second in the league, powered by a 14.0% shooting rate. |
| Avalanche goals allowed per game | 3.25 | Ranks 19th, a defensive slide Bednar has called out. |
| Colorado moneyline | -182 | Colorado is a clear home favorite despite losing three of four. |
New Jersey Devils vs Colorado Avalanche: quick answers
What is the over/under for New Jersey Devils vs Colorado Avalanche?
The total is 6.5 goals.
When is New Jersey Devils vs Colorado Avalanche?
Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 9:10 PM ET.