Philadelphia Flyers vs Vancouver Canucks prediction: Flyers' cold offense gets Canucks' last-ranked defense on a back-to-back

Last-place defense, sputtering offense

Vancouver sits at 3-15-1, last in the NHL and losers of five straight. The record matches the defensive numbers. The Canucks allow 4.58 goals per game, last of 32 teams. Their shot share, a team's share of all shots in its games, is 41.2%, also the league's lowest.

Philadelphia should be the ideal opponent for a team in that state, except the Flyers can't score either. They average 2.21 goals per game, 31st in the league. Matvei Michkov has carried the finishing load with 10 goals on just 27 shots. That conversion rate won't last, and the rest of the lineup hasn't picked up the slack.

Vancouver gets more from less. The Canucks shoot 13.3%, 5th in the league, and Elias Pettersson leads them with 19 points. The opening 20 minutes show both flaws at once. Vancouver allows 1.47 first-period goals per game, the worst rate in the league. Philadelphia scores 0.53 in the first, 31st.

Two goalie questions, one bigger

ESPN lists Joseph Woll and Leevi Merilainen as the probable starters. Neither team has confirmed a starter, though, and other Monday listings show Dan Vladar and Kevin Lankinen instead. Treat both creases as open until warmups.

The schedule points Philadelphia toward Woll. Vladar was in net Sunday in Calgary, where Matt Coronato beat him in overtime, and Woll started Thursday against the Rangers. Woll also has the better numbers this season, a .898 save percentage.

The Vancouver choice carries more weight. Merilainen made 26 saves Saturday in Edmonton and has an .889 save percentage. Lankinen's mark is .808, which would make the Flyers' cold shooters look much better. Thatcher Demko remains on injured reserve after hip surgery, and the club hopes he returns before Christmas.

Special teams lean Philadelphia

Vancouver's penalty kill is a problem. It succeeds on 63.5% of opponent power plays, 31st in the league. Philadelphia's power play hasn't been much better than its five-on-five offense, converting 17.2% of its chances for a 27th-place rank. Owen Tippett is back from his upper-body injury, though, and scored on the man advantage Sunday.

The Flyers hold up better on the other side, with a penalty kill that ranks 10th at 80.6%. Both teams draw 3.05 power plays per game, so neither should expect an edge in whistles. The question is which unit converts when the penalties come, and Vancouver's kill is the weakest piece on the ice.

Tocchet, fatigue and the price

Rick Tocchet coaches against the Canucks, his former team, for this game in Vancouver. His Flyers arrive on the second night of a back-to-back after blowing three leads in Sunday's overtime loss in Calgary. They are 1-6-2 on the road. Vancouver has had two days off but has won just once at home. Philadelphia won both meetings last season.

Availability is thin on both sides. Filip Chytil (upper body) is on injured reserve for Vancouver. Tom Willander (lower body) is day-to-day as of Sunday's report. For Philadelphia, Rasmus Ristolainen (hand) is on injured reserve, with no update since late October.

The market still trusts the Flyers, pricing them at -135 on the road, with Vancouver getting +1.5 on the puck line. The total has fallen to 6.0 from 6.5 when our feed first saw the game. Philadelphia's games have gone under 11 times this season, which helps explain the drop.