New York Islanders vs San Jose Sharks prediction: Sorokin's heavy workload hangs over Islanders' visit to the skidding Sharks
New York carries the clear edge in goal into San Jose, but only if Ilya Sorokin gets the net two days after a 45-save night.
San Jose Sharks covered the closing puck line (New York Islanders -1.5). The game went under the closing total of 6.5.
| Line | New York Islanders -140 (puck line -1.5) |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 6.5 |
- This looks like a low-event game: two shot-starved teams, so expect the goalie matchup and penalties to decide it.
- Watch the Sharks' penalty-drawing (3rd in the league) against an Islanders kill that ranks 5th but gets called often.
- The Islanders are -137 favorites; the total has climbed to 6.5 from 6.0, despite both teams sitting in the bottom six in shot share.
The gap in goal
Two teams in freefall meet in San Jose on Monday night, and the difference between them sits in the crease. The Sharks have dropped five straight. The Islanders have lost three in a row (0-2-1), but they have the sturdier goaltending, while San Jose has been losing because the puck keeps going in.
Ilya Sorokin is the Islanders' probable starter, though a Monday preview said neither team had announced a goalie. He has a .909 save percentage and a 2.64 goals-against average this season. The catch: he made a season-high 45 saves in Saturday's 5-4 overtime loss to New Jersey, so a turn for Semyon Varlamov is plausible. Nothing has surfaced on that either way.
Yaroslav Askarov is expected to start for San Jose after Alex Nedeljkovic took Saturday's loss in Dallas. Askarov's numbers tell the Sharks' story: an .885 save percentage and a 3.35 goals-against average. As a team, New York ranks 7th of 32 in save percentage; San Jose ranks 21st. Askarov is 0-1-1 in two career games against the Islanders.
Penalties tilt toward San Jose
The Sharks' best weapon is getting to the power play. They draw 3.68 power plays per game, 3rd in the league, and the Islanders hand them out freely, ranking 27th in times shorthanded.
That sets up a real test for a New York penalty kill (the share of opponent power plays killed without allowing a goal) that ranks 5th at 85.7%. If the kill holds, San Jose loses its most dependable route to goals. Will Smith's power-play goal kept the Sharks close in Dallas on Saturday.
The other side of special teams favors nobody. The Islanders' power play converts just 14.6% of its chances, 29th in the league, so New York's own penalty-drawing isn't much of a threat.
Stars carrying thin attacks
Neither team pushes play. Both own a 47.3% shot share (a team's share of all shots on goal in its games), bottom six in the league. San Jose's problem is finishing: it scores on 9.2% of its shots, 31st of 32, and it has been dreadful in first periods.
Macklin Celebrini carries the Sharks with 21 points in 17 games, including three assists Saturday. The Sharks moved Michael Misa to the wing beside Celebrini and Smith last week, stacking their scoring onto one line.
For New York, defenseman Matthew Schaefer logs 26.8 minutes a night and matches Bo Horvat's team-leading point total. The Islanders also win 56.2% of their faceoffs, 2nd in the league, a quiet way to keep the puck away from Celebrini.
Who's dressing
The Islanders are getting healthier. Mathew Barzal (knee) was in a regular jersey by Saturday's morning skate, and coach Jim DeBoer said he would be evaluated for this West Coast trip; he remains on injured reserve. Matias Maccelli was a full participant Saturday but is also still on IR. Ryan Pulock was ruled out for two to four weeks on Nov. 1, and Alexander Romanov is likely out for the season.
San Jose remains without Igor Chernyshov, listed as week-to-week. Alexander Wennberg was upgraded to day-to-day in a Nov. 6 report but sat Saturday, so his status is unsettled.
What the market says
New York is a -137 moneyline favorite with San Jose at +115, and the Sharks get the 1.5-goal puck line at home. San Jose has covered that line just seven times in 19 games. The total has moved up to 6.5 from the 6.0 our feed first recorded, a lean toward goals that runs against two shot-starved offenses. The Islanders won both meetings last season by one goal.
New York Islanders vs San Jose Sharks line movement and odds
| Book | Islanders ML | Sharks ML | Islanders spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -145 | +120 | -1.5 (+170) | o6.5 (-102) |
| DraftKings | -142 | +120 | -1.5 (+170) | o6.5 (-102) |
| ESPN BET | -140 | +120 | -1.5 (+175) | o6.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | -145 | +120 | -1.5 (+170) | o6.5 (+100) |
| FanDuel | -140 | +116 | -1.5 (+168) | o6.5 (-102) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -150 | +115 | -1.5 (+175) | o6.5 (-105) |
| Caesars | -145 | +121 | -1.5 (+160) | o6.5 (-102) |
Key players
- Ilya Sorokin (New York Islanders): Has a .909 save percentage and 2.64 GAA this season, but faced 45 shots on Saturday.
- Matthew Schaefer (New York Islanders): Plays 26.8 minutes a night and has 16 points in 16 games this season.
- Bo Horvat (New York Islanders): Leads the team with 7 goals this season on a 14.3% shooting rate.
- Macklin Celebrini (San Jose Sharks): Has 21 points and 71 shots in 17 games this season, both team highs.
- Yaroslav Askarov (San Jose Sharks): Carries an .885 save percentage and 3.35 GAA through 12 games this season.
- Will Smith (San Jose Sharks): Has 7 goals this season, including a power-play goal Saturday in Dallas.
Numbers that matter
| Sharks power plays drawn per game | 3.68 | 3rd in the NHL, against an Islanders team that ranks 27th in times shorthanded. |
|---|---|---|
| Islanders penalty kill | 85.7% | 5th in the league, the unit that has to blunt San Jose's best weapon. |
| Sharks shooting percentage | 9.2% | 31st of 32, the root of San Jose's five-game skid. |
| Islanders moneyline | -137 | New York is favored on the road despite its own three-game losing streak. |
| Total | 6.5 | Up from the 6.0 our feed first recorded for this game. |
New York Islanders vs San Jose Sharks: quick answers
What was the final score of New York Islanders vs San Jose Sharks?
New York Islanders 2, San Jose Sharks 3 (final). San Jose Sharks covered the closing puck line (New York Islanders -1.5). The game went under the closing total of 6.5.
What is the over/under for New York Islanders vs San Jose Sharks?
The total is 6.5 goals.
When is New York Islanders vs San Jose Sharks?
Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:10 PM ET.
Has the line moved for New York Islanders vs San Jose Sharks?
No: New York Islanders has stayed at -1.5, and the total moved from 5.5 to 6.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).