Washington Huskies vs Purdue Boilermakers prediction: Elijah Brown inherits Washington's sinking pocket in a Friday night test at Purdue

A backup behind a bad wall

Washington is 0-3 in Big Ten play, has lost three straight, and will probably play this one without its starting quarterback. Jedd Fisch said Monday he is not under the impression Demond Williams Jr. will play through his rib injury, adding that a "pretty significant change" would be needed. Williams did not practice, and Elijah Brown took every first-team rep. The official tag is day to day, with a decision due later in the week.

Brown was not bad in relief against Iowa. He went 28-of-39 for 251 yards and three touchdowns after Williams went down late in the first half. The problem is what stands in front of him. Washington gives up 3.5 sacks per game, 133rd of 138 FBS teams, and its run game offers no cover: 90.3 rushing yards per game ranks 135th.

The saving grace is the opponent. Purdue averages just 1.17 sacks per game (119th), and its havoc rate, the share of plays ending in a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup, ranks 105th. If Brown gets the clean pockets Purdue usually allows, Chris Lawson becomes a real weapon. He has 245 receiving yards over the last three games.

Walters returns to a mismatch

The storyline is Ryan Walters, Purdue's coach before Barry Odom, coming back to Ross-Ade Stadium as Washington's defensive coordinator. His unit looked sturdy early: 42nd nationally in EPA allowed per play (expected points added, a measure of how much each snap moves the scoreboard). The last three games tell a different story. Against Minnesota, USC and Iowa, Washington allowed 0.262 EPA per play and a 49.6% success rate, the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule. That stretch produced an average of 31.0 points against.

Now Walters loses a piece. Linebacker Xe'ree Alexander suffered a high-ankle sprain against Iowa and is ruled out.

Purdue's offense is built to exploit that slide. It ranks 29th in EPA per play and 25th in passing EPA. Ryan Browne has thrown one interception all season on a 68.9% completion rate, with 8.6 yards per attempt. His efficiency dipped to 6.6 yards per attempt over the last three, but that run included Notre Dame, the No. 3 team in SP+.

Ijeboi versus the stuff rate

The one place Washington's defense still holds is the run. Its stuff rate, the share of carries stopped at or behind the line, is 26.1%, eighth in the country. Washington ranks 30th in rushing EPA allowed.

Fame Ijeboi is coming off his best day: 31 carries for 195 yards and three touchdowns in the 41-13 rout of Minnesota. He has nine rushing touchdowns on the season. Purdue's line is only average at creating push, 84th in line yards per carry, so Ijeboi's game hinges on whether Washington's front still plays like its season numbers or like its last three weeks.

Third downs and the schedule

The third-down split is stark. Purdue converts 45.3% of its third downs (38th), while Washington converts just 31.2% (122nd). Flip it around and the matchup gets stranger: Washington's defense allows only 30.7% (21st), while Purdue's allows 47.9%, 130th of 138.

Purdue's defense is genuinely poor, 133rd in EPA allowed per play. But context matters. Purdue has played a much tougher slate, with an average opponent SP+ of 12.5 against Washington's 2.0, including losses to UCLA and Notre Dame. Purdue has covered its last two as an underdog. Washington has covered once in six tries this season.

The stakes split the same way. A Purdue win would put the Boilermakers above .500 past midseason for the first time since 2022. Washington won last year's meeting 49-13. Purdue comes in on a short week, with its only bye waiting on the other side.

What to watch

• Washington's quarterback decision. If Williams surprises and plays, the protection questions remain but the passing ceiling rises.
• Early sacks. Purdue rarely gets home. If it does against Brown, Washington has no running game to lean on.
• Ijeboi's first quarter. Early success against an eighth-ranked stuff rate would confirm that Washington's recent defensive slide is real.
• Browne's interception count. One all season. Washington averages 1.5 takeaways per game (31st).