Memphis Tigers vs Tulane Green Wave prediction: Memphis's ground game aims at Tulane's collapsing run defense

Tulane can't stop the run

Memphis arrives 5-1 and 2-0 in the American. Tulane is 2-3 and has dropped its league opener. Holding off this Memphis team on Friday night will be harder.

The problem is the run. Memphis averages 247.0 rushing yards per game, 7th of 138. Its line yards per carry, the rushing yardage credited to the offensive line, ranks 12th. Tulane allows 218.6 rushing yards per game, 133rd. Its stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line, ranks 128th.

Last week showed how bad it can get. Army's Cale Hellums ran for a career-high 223 yards, and Army won 20-17 on a field goal on the final play. Jaylin Carter has 645 yards at 7.2 per carry, and he just went for 132 yards and two scores against UAB.

Semonza behind a patched line

Tulane's passing game has given it little room for error. Kadin Semonza is completing 53.8% of his throws, and he has averaged 5.9 yards per attempt over the last three games. The offense's success rate, the share of plays that keep it on schedule, is 33.7%, 133rd nationally.

Now the line protecting him has been reshuffled. Injuries to Dom Steward and Darion Reed forced Tulane to start a new line against Army, with Ryan Mickow moving to left tackle. That line was already giving up 2.8 sacks per game, 123rd. Memphis gets 2.5 sacks per game, 30th. Elijah Kinsler has 4.5 sacks and J'Mond Tapp has 3.5. Long-yardage downs favour the Tigers.

Stokes against a soft secondary

Marcus Stokes has been the most efficient piece of Memphis's offense. He has 16 touchdowns against three interceptions at 10.7 yards per attempt. Memphis ranks 5th in passing EPA, which measures the expected points added per dropback. Tulane ranks 109th in passing EPA allowed.

The Green Wave average 0.2 takeaways per game, 137th of 138. Opponents also convert 49.4% of their third downs against Tulane, 134th.

Tulane's one real weapon is the big play. It ranks 1st in explosiveness, the average value of its successful plays, and Memphis ranks 117th in explosiveness allowed. Maurice Turner averages 10.7 yards per carry and ran for 200 yards on 12 carries against Southern Miss. Tulane can't sustain drives, so its upset chances depend on a few long runs.

How real is 5-1?

The best case for Tulane is the Memphis schedule. The Tigers' FBS opponents average an SP+ of -8.2, compared with -2.2 for Tulane's. Memphis's last three wins came against UT Martin, Charlotte and UAB.

Tulane's most competitive showing came against stronger opposition. It lost 20-31 at Kansas State, 31st in SP+, and covered as a 20.5-point underdog. That shows the Wave can stay close against a better team. It doesn't change how badly they've defended the run.

Field position favours the hosts

Memphis starts its drives on average at its own 25.4-yard line, 131st, so the Tigers often have a long field.

That matters less against a defense that rarely forces punts, but it is how Tulane can keep the score close. In a game decided on the ground, though, Memphis has the stronger offensive line, the better quarterback and a far better turnover record.