Georgia Southern Eagles vs Old Dominion Monarchs prediction: Max Johnson's hot arm against an Old Dominion offense going nowhere
Old Dominion ranks last in FBS in yards per play and sacks allowed, so Georgia Southern may only need its quarterback to keep doing what he has done for three weeks.
| Spread | Georgia Southern -3 |
|---|
- Georgia Southern's passing game should drive the scoring while Old Dominion's defense keeps it competitive and its offense struggles to sustain drives.
- Georgia Southern's pass rush against an Old Dominion line that allows 4.67 sacks per game, last in FBS.
- Our model doesn't price this game yet.
An offense at the bottom
Two 2-4 Sun Belt teams meet on a Thursday night in Norfolk, and only one of them can reliably move the ball. Old Dominion averages 4.19 yards per play, 138th of 138 in FBS. Its success rate, the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule, sits at 30.5%, also last.
The problems start up front. The Monarchs rank 138th in line yards per carry, a measure of how much push the offensive line generates on runs. They allow 4.67 sacks per game and a havoc rate of 24.5%, both worst in the country. Havoc counts plays that end in a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
Quinn Henicle has made it worse through the air. Across his last three appearances he completed 47.3% of his passes with no touchdowns and three interceptions. He went 10 of 20 for 97 yards and two picks in the 10-3 win at App State. His legs are his best weapon, with 323 rushing yards this season.
Georgia Southern's front is solid rather than special: 2.33 sacks per game ranks 41st and its havoc rate ranks 52nd. Against this line, that may be enough to stall drives before they start.
Johnson against a stingy defense
Max Johnson has been the best player on either side for three weeks. Over that stretch he threw for 860 yards and nine touchdowns against one interception, averaging 8.2 yards per attempt. That came against Houston, Coastal Carolina and James Madison, with three touchdown passes in each game.
Old Dominion's defense is the reason this isn't a blowout forecast. It ranks 23rd in EPA allowed per play, which measures the expected points opponents gain on each snap. Against the run it is even better, 15th in rushing EPA allowed. Georgia Southern runs for just 120.0 yards per game, 117th, so expect Johnson to carry the offense again.
The matchup favors him through the air. Old Dominion ranks 58th in passing EPA allowed, a middling mark compared with its run defense. Alex Taylor has 220 receiving yards and three touchdowns over the last three games. Josh Dallas caught eight passes for 111 yards against JMU. The Eagles will be without WR Jeremiah Ware, who was ruled out with an undisclosed injury.
Kicks, punts and giveaways
Georgia Southern's special teams could hand back what its offense earns. The Eagles have made 5 of 11 field goals, 130th in the country, and their last game ended when a 52-yard try scraped the bottom of the crossbar in the 27-24 loss to JMU.
The punt game is worse. Georgia Southern's net punting average ranks 126th, and it allows 24.4 yards per punt return, 130th. Old Dominion averages 15.4 yards per punt return, 22nd, giving the Monarchs their likeliest path to a short field.
Turnovers cut both ways for Old Dominion. The offense gives the ball away 2.17 times per game, 135th. The defense takes it away 1.83 times per game, 16th, and Brandon Crutchfield sealed the App State win with an interception on fourth-and-6. Johnson, with two interceptions all season, rarely hands over those chances.
Form, history and the ATS split
The Eagles have played closer than their record. They covered in five of six games with a line, including a 7-point underdog loss by three to JMU. The defense has slipped, though, allowing 31.0 points per game over the last three.
Old Dominion has covered once in six tries. Its last three games produced 13.3 points per game, and the offense posted a 28.0% success rate in that stretch.
The series has belonged to the Monarchs lately. They won the last three meetings, including a 45-10 rout at Georgia Southern in 2025 and 47-19 at home in 2024. Both teams come in on five days of rest after Saturday games.
What to watch
- Early sacks: if Georgia Southern gets Henicle on the ground on early downs, Old Dominion's offense has no fallback.
- Henicle's legs: his scrambles are the Monarchs' best way to extend drives.
- Eagles field goals: stalled drives that end in kicks have been a losing proposition this season.
- Punt returns: Old Dominion's return unit against Georgia Southern's coverage is the biggest special-teams mismatch on the field.
Key players
- Max Johnson (Georgia Southern): Has thrown nine touchdowns and one interception over his last three games at 8.2 yards per attempt.
- Alex Taylor (Georgia Southern): Has 220 receiving yards and three touchdowns in the last three games, including 119 yards against Houston.
- Josh Dallas (Georgia Southern): Leads the team with 37 catches and posted 111 yards against JMU.
- Quinn Henicle (Old Dominion): Completed 47.3% of his passes over his last three games but has 323 rushing yards this season.
- Devin Roche (Old Dominion): Carried 23 times for 101 yards in the win at App State.
- Javen Gibson (Old Dominion): Leads the defense with 4.5 sacks, two of them at App State.
- Brandon Crutchfield (Old Dominion): Has two interceptions in the last three games, including the game-sealer at App State.
Numbers that matter
| ODU yards per play | 4.19 | Ranks 138th of 138, the least productive offense in FBS. |
|---|---|---|
| ODU sacks allowed per game | 4.67 | Last in FBS, against a Georgia Southern pass rush ranked 41st in sacks. |
| Johnson TD passes, last 3 | 9 | Three in each game against Houston, Coastal Carolina and James Madison. |
| GS field goals | 5/11 | A 130th-ranked kicking game that just lost to JMU on a missed 52-yarder. |
| ODU takeaways per game | 1.83 | Ranks 16th and gives the Monarchs their best chance to steal short fields. |
Georgia Southern Eagles vs Old Dominion Monarchs: quick answers
Who is favored in Georgia Southern Eagles vs Old Dominion Monarchs?
Georgia Southern is favored by 3 points (Georgia Southern -3).
When is Georgia Southern Eagles vs Old Dominion Monarchs?
Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET.