Colorado State Rams vs Texas State Bobcats prediction: Texas State's ground game targets a Colorado State defense without a coordinator

Burgess against a broken front

Texas State's first Pac-12 home game comes against a defense that has come apart. Colorado State allows 223.0 rushing yards per game, 136th of 138, and Mora fired defensive coordinator Tyson Summers after he left the sideline during the Oregon State loss. Ken McClendon now calls the defense, with a bye week to prepare.

The Bobcats are built to exploit exactly this. They run for 263.6 yards per game, fifth in the country. Colorado State gives up 3.46 line yards per carry (yards credited to the offensive line on runs), 135th, and its stuff rate (share of runs stopped at or behind the line) ranks 119th.

Torrance Burgess Jr. carries the load. He has 614 yards at 7.3 per carry, and he went for 214 against North Texas. Davian Jackson, the team's leading rusher in touchdowns with five, is out, so Burgess should see even more of the ball.

The recent trend is worse than the season line for the Rams. Over their last three games they allowed 52.0 points per game, and opponents succeeded on 62.4% of plays. Mora summed it up plainly: "This is awful right now."

Brad Jackson's hot hand

If Colorado State sells out to stop the run, Brad Jackson has been punishing defenses through the air. Over his last three games he has 12 touchdown passes and 10.4 yards per attempt.

The Rams rank 129th in passing EPA allowed (expected points added per play, a measure of how much each throw helps the offense). Texas State's passing EPA ranks 14th. The Bobcats convert 55.4% of third downs, fourth nationally, and Colorado State ranks 119th at getting off the field on third down. Long drives should be the norm.

Who throws for Colorado State

Freshman Hauss Hejny is questionable with a hamstring injury, upgraded from an earlier "unlikely" tag. Mora said Hejny is "practicing, not in a full role yet, but he'll be on the trip with us and he'll be suited up." Our projection has K'saan Farrar starting.

Farrar has been uneven. He threw for 70 yards on 3.0 per attempt against BYU, then put up 344 against UTSA. His top target, RJ Vick, is also questionable after Mora called him "probably doubtful." Vick leads the Rams with 367 receiving yards and four touchdowns.

There is an opening if the passing game holds together. Texas State allows 298.6 passing yards per game, 137th, and its 1.0 sacks per game ranks 124th. Colorado State gives up only 0.4 sacks per game, third nationally, so Farrar should get time. The Rams also rank fourth in explosiveness, the size of their gains on successful plays.

Kicking keeps the door open

The Bobcats' weakness is special teams. They have made 4 of 9 field goals, and their 34.3-yard gross punting average is last in the country. Kinne called the San Diego State results "unacceptable" after a blocked field goal and a 15-yard punt.

Colorado State averages 35.5 yards per kick return, seventh, and Texas State allows 30.6, 133rd. The Bobcats also score just 3.16 points per scoring opportunity, 110th. Settling for field goals they miss is how a big rushing night still ends in a narrow win, as it did in the 31-29 loss at San Diego State as a 9.5-point favourite.

Where the number sits

Texas State opened at 11.5 and has moved to 12.5, so Colorado State is getting +12.5. Our model lands at 12.74 with the Bobcats winning 79.0% of the time, close enough to the market that it offers no edge on the full-game side. Our total of 66.7 matches the 66.8 on the board.

One tested pattern fits this game script. When the favourite covers, its rushing goes over its line 33.9% of the time, against 25.3% if the two were unrelated. If Texas State wins by margin, it will probably be Burgess doing the damage. Our first-half number is Texas State by 7.0.