Texas Southern Tigers vs Murray St Racers prediction: Murray State's turnover machine faces a Texas Southern team still finding the ball
The Racers' pressure and interior scoring line up with Texas Southern's two biggest weaknesses, and a fast pace gives the gap more possessions to grow before the 27.5-point line comes into play.
Texas Southern Tigers covered the closing spread (Texas Southern Tigers +28.5). The game went over the closing total of 162.5.
| Spread | Murray State -29 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 162.5 |
- Murray State's pressure and size should build a big lead; the question is whether Texas Southern's guards keep it under four touchdowns.
- Christian Jones and the Racers' pressure against Karris Bilal, a high-usage guard who went 2 of 16 at LSU.
- Murray State is favored by 27.5, unchanged since our feed first saw it; Texas Southern lost by 41 at LSU as a 36-point underdog.
Pressure against a loose handle
Murray State has opened its first Missouri Valley season by taking the ball away. Texas Southern has opened Corey Lowery's first season by giving it up. Tonight those two habits collide in Murray.
The Racers force turnovers on 28.1% of opponent possessions (turnover rate is giveaways per 100 possessions), 13th of 364 teams. Texas Southern coughs it up at a 19.5% rate, 261st. Christian Jones, a George Washington transfer who comes off the bench, averages 2.7 steals in 21 minutes and is the point of the spear.
The Tigers' main creator is the pressure point. Karris Bilal, a transfer from Louisiana, carries the offense but went 2 of 16 from the floor at LSU. Both teams also play fast: Texas Southern ranks 15th nationally in pace, Murray State 33rd. More possessions mean more chances for live-ball turnovers to become runouts, and more room for a margin to grow. Every number here comes from three games, so treat the details as early reads.
Open lanes to the rim
Texas Southern's defense has been hardest hit inside the arc. Opponents are making 63.9% of their twos, 349th in the country, and the Tigers rank 334th in defensive rebounding. Murray State scores inside efficiently, hitting 62.6% of its twos (40th), and grabs 40.0% of its own misses (58th).
That combination is the cleanest path to a blowout: the Racers either score at the rim or get a second try. Brigham Rogers, a Belmont transfer, averages 8.3 rebounds and pulled down 12 against Alcorn State.
The arc is the one area where the Tigers have held up, with opponents shooting 28.6% from three (111th). It matters because Brayden Shorter has made 16 of 30 threes. If Texas Southern runs him off the line and still loses the paint, the Racers win anyway, just more slowly.
Two rebuilt rosters, one far deeper
Neither team looks much like last season's. Texas Southern returns just 21.2% of last season's minutes, so its 12-18 record from 2025-26 says little. The upheaval reaches the bench: Lowery replaced Johnny Jones, who left in April for an assistant job at LSU, and players joined an August demonstration against the hire, urging the school to keep interim coach Shyrone Chatman.
The Tigers have found some offense. Jason Kimbrough has made 9 of 18 threes, and Cameron Patterson scored 27 in the home win over College of Biblical Studies. Bilal is 0 for 10 from deep, though, and the shooting falls off quickly after Kimbrough.
Murray State, picked first in the MVC preseason poll, has more answers. Roman Domon averages 22.7 points with the ball in his hands on a third of possessions, even while he is 3 of 17 from three. Shorter adds 20.3 a night. Nothing has surfaced on injuries for either team.
Where the number sits
The Racers are 27.5-point favorites with a total of 161.5, and neither number has moved since our feed first recorded them Friday morning.
Texas Southern's two road games against high-major opponents went one way each against the spread. It covered as a 28.5-point underdog at Grand Canyon despite losing 103-79, then lost 92-51 at LSU as a 36-point underdog. Murray State has covered twice in three tries. Its one miss came as a 23-point favorite in a 93-71 win over Northwestern State.
On the total, Murray State has gone under in two of three games despite scoring in the 90s every time, because its defense has held opponents to 64 points a game. Texas Southern has allowed 91 a game, which leaves the over depending on whether the Tigers can score enough against the Racers' pressure.
Texas Southern Tigers vs Murray St Racers line movement and odds
| Book | Tigers ML | Racers ML | Tigers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | — | — | +29.5 (-115) | o162.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +28.5 (-108) | o164.5 (-108) |
| DraftKings | +4000 | -50000 | +28.5 (-105) | o162.5 (-112) |
| ESPN BET | — | — | +29.5 (-115) | o162.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | +8000 | -50000 | +28.5 (-105) | o163 (-110) |
| FanDuel | — | — | +28.5 (-104) | o162.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +28.5 (-105) | o164.5 (-105) |
| Caesars | — | — | +29 (-110) | o163 (-110) |
Where the money is on Texas Southern Tigers vs Murray St Racers
On the Kalshi moneyline: Texas Southern Tigers: 80% of bets, 2% of the money; Murray St Racers: 20% of bets, 98% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Murray St Racers -30.5: 50% of bets, 95% of the money; Texas Southern Tigers +30.5: 50% of bets, 6% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 161.5: 68% of bets, 92% of the money; Under 161.5: 32% of bets, 8% of the money.
Key players
- Roman Domon (Murray State): Averages 22.7 points on a 33.2% usage rate despite making just 3 of 17 threes.
- Brayden Shorter (Murray State): Has hit 16 of 30 threes, including 8 of 12 against Northwestern State.
- Christian Jones (Murray State): The George Washington transfer averages 2.7 steals and 4.7 assists off the bench.
- Brigham Rogers (Murray State): Averages 8.3 rebounds and grabbed 12 against Alcorn State.
- Jason Kimbrough (Texas Southern): Averages 15.3 points and has made 9 of 18 threes, scoring 16 at LSU.
- Karris Bilal (Texas Southern): Carries a 29% usage rate but is shooting 22.2% from the field and 0 for 10 from three.
- Cameron Patterson (Texas Southern): Scored 27 on 9-of-13 shooting against College of Biblical Studies.
Numbers that matter
| Murray State forced turnover rate | 28.1% | Ranks 13th nationally, against a Texas Southern offense that ranks 261st in turnover rate. |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Southern opponent 2-point % | 63.9% | Ranks 349th, a soft interior for a Murray State team that makes 62.6% of its twos. |
| Texas Southern returning minutes | 21.2% | So little of last season's roster is back that last season's numbers say little about this team. |
| Spread | -27.5 | Murray State's line hasn't moved since our feed first recorded it. |
Texas Southern Tigers vs Murray St Racers: quick answers
What was the final score of Texas Southern Tigers vs Murray St Racers?
Texas Southern Tigers 78, Murray St Racers 99 (final). Texas Southern Tigers covered the closing spread (Texas Southern Tigers +28.5). The game went over the closing total of 162.5.
Who is favored in Texas Southern Tigers vs Murray St Racers?
Murray State is favored by 29 points (Murray State -29).
What is the over/under for Texas Southern Tigers vs Murray St Racers?
The total is 162.5 points.
When is Texas Southern Tigers vs Murray St Racers?
Friday, November 13, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Texas Southern Tigers vs Murray St Racers?
Yes: Texas Southern Tigers opened +27.5 and is now +28.5, and the total moved from 162 to 162.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Texas Southern Tigers vs Murray St Racers?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Texas Southern Tigers: 80% of bets, 2% of the money; Murray St Racers: 20% of bets, 98% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Murray St Racers -30.5: 50% of bets, 95% of the money; Texas Southern Tigers +30.5: 50% of bets, 6% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 161.5: 68% of bets, 92% of the money; Under 161.5: 32% of bets, 8% of the money.