Chicago St Cougars vs San Diego Toreros prediction: Mike Price can score, but can Chicago State hold onto the ball?

The turnover problem

Chicago State has found a scorer. It has not found a way to keep the ball. The Cougars give it away on 23.2% of their possessions, a turnover rate that ranks 343rd of 364 Division I teams. Last season's mostly departed roster ranked 147th, so this is a new group's new habit.

San Diego is built to exploit it. The Toreros force turnovers on 21.6% of opponent possessions, 104th nationally, and Dusty Stromer has been the chief pest at 2.7 steals a game. Every live-ball steal is a likely layup the other way for a team that has averaged 83.3 points.

The Cougars can't count on second chances to make up the difference. San Diego has collected 75.0% of opponents' misses, 79th in the country, and it is the bigger team on a minutes-weighted basis.

Jevon Hill from deep

San Diego doesn't take many threes as a team, but it makes them, hitting 36.9% (96th). Most of that is Jevon Hill, a forward who has gone 13 of 26 from beyond the arc. He made six against Tarleton State and six more at Colorado, the second on just 10 attempts against a Big 12 defense.

Chicago State has not been able to slow shooters. Opponents have hit 35.7% of their threes against the Cougars, and South Carolina State, a team ranked 359th in adjusted net efficiency, put 53 on them in the first half in Chicago. If Hill gets clean looks, a two-touchdown spread becomes reachable quickly.

A long night at the line

Neither defense keeps opponents off the free-throw line. San Diego's opponents have drawn free throws at a rate that ranks 357th nationally, measured as attempts per field-goal try. That is the most direct path for Chicago State, which gets to the line at a healthy clip itself.

That path runs through Mike Price. The transfer from Cal State Bakersfield uses 39% of Chicago State's possessions while he's on the floor and averages 22.0 points. He scored 29 in Wednesday's 81-62 win at Cal Baptist. Nobody else on the roster averages more than 10.5.

The Toreros also shoot it better at the stripe. Their 79.5% free-throw mark ranks 28th, and guard Davion Hill has made 94.4% of his. Hill's usage is heavy too, though he has been inefficient from the floor so far.

Two rosters built from scratch

Both programs started over. Chicago State returns just 7.7% of last season's minutes from a 7-25 team, and Landon Bussie is in his second season. San Diego returns 4.3% from a 12-21 team and is in its first season under JR Blount, who earned his first official win in the opener against Biola.

That makes last season's numbers a weak guide for either side. The Toreros lean on transfers: Marqui Worthy Jr. averaged 16.2 points at UC Riverside last season, and Davion Hill came over from Ball State. Their early form has been uneven. They needed overtime to beat Tarleton State after trailing by 15, then covered in an 83-75 loss at Colorado.

Where the number sits

San Diego is a 16-point favorite, with the total at 142.5. The spread has moved from 13.5 and the total from 147.75 since the line appeared early Friday. Tipoff is 9:30 p.m. ET at Jenny Craig Pavilion on ESPN+.

Chicago State has been a tough read. It covered as an underdog at Incarnate Word and Cal Baptist, then lost by 15 at home to South Carolina State as a favorite. San Diego is 2-0 to the over in games with a line. A game featuring two defenses that foul and allow open threes leans toward points, as long as Chicago State's turnovers don't shorten its own possessions into nothing, though the lower total of 142.5 asks for a bit less.

What to watch - Chicago State's turnover count in the first 10 minutes. - Jevon Hill's three-point attempts. - Price's free-throw attempts as a measure of whether he's getting downhill.