Miss Valley St Delta Devils vs Oregon St Beavers prediction: Oregon State's transfer-built offense eyes Mississippi Valley State's collapsing interior defense
The Beavers have been efficient from everywhere in a 3-0 start, and the Delta Devils, four games into a 14-game road odyssey, have yet to show they can protect the paint.
Miss Valley St Delta Devils covered the closing spread (Miss Valley St Delta Devils +34.5). The game went under the closing total of 157.5.
| Spread | Oregon State -35 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 157 |
- Oregon State's shooters and slashers should pile up efficient looks early; the drama is the margin, not the winner.
- Xavion Staton and the Beavers' frontcourt against a Delta Devils team that ranks 359th in defensive rebounding.
- Oregon State is a 33.5-point favorite; the Delta Devils covered 40.5 at Oklahoma and 35.5 at Oregon.
Nothing stops at the rim
Mississippi Valley State's problem is simple to describe and hard to fix. Opponents are making 69.2% of their two-point shots against the Delta Devils, 363rd of 364 Division I teams. Their effective field goal percentage allowed (a shooting measure that counts threes as 1.5 makes) sits at 61.2%, 356th nationally.
That is a bad fit against Oregon State's new offense. The Beavers post a 59.5% effective field goal mark, 42nd in the country, and hit 38.4% of their threes. They also take care of the ball, turning it over on 13.4% of possessions, 41st nationally, so the Delta Devils' steal-hunting has fewer chances to change the shape of the game.
The second-chance math adds to it. Mississippi Valley State grabs only 54.7% of opponents' misses, 359th nationally. Staton, a center averaging 10.7 rebounds and 2.7 blocks, should get every putback he wants.
A rebuilt roster on the road
Mike Davis took over in May as the program's 13th head coach after an assistant stint at Memphis, inheriting a team that went 3-30 last season. Almost nothing carried over: players on this roster logged just 5.1% of last season's minutes, so last season's team numbers say little about who takes the floor tonight.
The schedule offers no cushion. The Delta Devils open with 14 straight road games and won't play at home until Jan. 9. Corvallis is the next stop after a trip through Oklahoma, Washington and Oregon, and both games with known results got away early: they trailed 38-22 at halftime at Oklahoma and 50-28 at Oregon.
The Joyner remake is working
Oregon State also turned its roster over, with returning players accounting for 16.8% of last season's minutes. First-year coach Justin Joyner, who won a national title as a Michigan assistant in 2026, has rebuilt around transfers and has the Beavers 3-0 after a 94-84 win over Eastern Washington on Nov. 9.
Buffalo transfer Daniel Freitag carries the heaviest load and scored 21 against Eastern Washington. Legend Smiley, from San Francisco, has been the sharpest shooter, hitting 11 of 23 threes while coming off the bench. Josiah Lake II, back after first-team All-WCC honors, is the steadying hand at 4.3 assists per game.
The depth shows: five Beavers reached double figures against Eastern Washington, and Joyner is still using this home stretch to settle a rotation. That matters for a big spread, because the second unit isn't a drop-off.
Can the Delta Devils hang around 33.5
The market sees a blowout. Oregon State is a 33.5-point favorite with a 154.5 total, and neither number has moved since our feed first recorded them. The Beavers covered big lines against Weber State and California Baptist, winning 102-61 and 96-68, and both games went over.
The case for the underdog is that Mississippi Valley State has already covered two lines larger than this one. Tempo helps: the Delta Devils play at 66.7 possessions per 40 minutes, 308th nationally, against an Oregon State team that runs at 74.2, 69th. Fewer possessions shrink a margin, and a slow, grinding pace is the one tool a team this outmatched can control.
The question for the total is whether Oregon State's efficiency or Mississippi Valley State's pace sets the game's shape. The Delta Devils' offense has been scarce early, averaging 25.0 first-half points, 356th nationally.
Miss Valley St Delta Devils vs Oregon St Beavers line movement and odds
| Book | Devils ML | Beavers ML | Devils spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | — | — | +34.5 (-110) | o157.5 (-105) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +35.5 (-120) | o157.5 (-114) |
| DraftKings | — | — | +34.5 (-108) | o157.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | — | — | +34.5 (-105) | o157.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | +7000 | -50000 | +34.5 (-105) | o157 (-110) |
| FanDuel | — | — | +34.5 (-108) | o156.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +34.5 (+100) | o157.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | — | — | +34.5 (-110) | o157.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Miss Valley St Delta Devils vs Oregon St Beavers
On the Kalshi moneyline: Miss Valley St Delta Devils: 91% of bets, 15% of the money; Oregon St Beavers: 9% of bets, 85% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Oregon St Beavers -33.5: 56% of bets, 81% of the money; Miss Valley St Delta Devils +33.5: 44% of bets, 19% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 155.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money; Under 155.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money.
Key players
- Daniel Freitag (Oregon State): Leads the Beavers at 17.7 points per game with a team-high 28.2% usage rate.
- Legend Smiley (Oregon State): Has made 47.8% of his threes while averaging 16.3 points off the bench.
- Josiah Lake II (Oregon State): Shooting 50% from three with 4.3 assists per game as the lone major returner.
- Xavion Staton (Oregon State): Averages 10.7 rebounds and 2.7 blocks, the inside presence the Delta Devils must solve.
- Tymias Williams (Mississippi Valley State): Playing 35.7 minutes a night with 8.3 rebounds and 3.0 steals per game.
- AJ Abrams (Mississippi Valley State): Scored 20 points on 5-of-7 shooting against Washington.
- Gabriel Martinez (Mississippi Valley State): The team's most reliable outside threat at 6 of 14 from three.
Numbers that matter
| MVSU opponent 2-point % | 69.2% | Ranks 363rd of 364, the core reason Oregon State should score at will inside. |
|---|---|---|
| Oregon State effective FG% | 59.5% | 42nd nationally for a transfer-heavy offense that has scored in bunches all month. |
| MVSU returning minutes | 5.1% | Nearly a full roster reset under a first-year coach, making last season's 3-30 team a weak guide. |
| Spread | -33.5 | Unmoved since our feed first saw it, and smaller than two lines the Delta Devils already covered. |
Miss Valley St Delta Devils vs Oregon St Beavers: quick answers
What was the final score of Miss Valley St Delta Devils vs Oregon St Beavers?
Miss Valley St Delta Devils 65, Oregon St Beavers 81 (final). Miss Valley St Delta Devils covered the closing spread (Miss Valley St Delta Devils +34.5). The game went under the closing total of 157.5.
Who is favored in Miss Valley St Delta Devils vs Oregon St Beavers?
Oregon State is favored by 35 points (Oregon State -35).
What is the over/under for Miss Valley St Delta Devils vs Oregon St Beavers?
The total is 157 points.
When is Miss Valley St Delta Devils vs Oregon St Beavers?
Friday, November 13, 2026 at 9:30 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Miss Valley St Delta Devils vs Oregon St Beavers?
Yes: Miss Valley St Delta Devils opened +33.5 and is now +34.5, and the total moved from 154.5 to 157.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Miss Valley St Delta Devils vs Oregon St Beavers?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Miss Valley St Delta Devils: 91% of bets, 15% of the money; Oregon St Beavers: 9% of bets, 85% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Oregon St Beavers -33.5: 56% of bets, 81% of the money; Miss Valley St Delta Devils +33.5: 44% of bets, 19% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 155.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money; Under 155.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money.