Marist Red Foxes vs Lehigh Mountain Hawks prediction: Lehigh's vanished jump shot turns a title defense into a grind
The Patriot League champions brought back most of their roster but not their shooting, and a rebuilt Marist team arrives at Stabler Arena with its own scoring problems.
Lehigh Mountain Hawks covered the closing spread (Marist Red Foxes +2.5). The game went under the closing total of 132.5.
| Spread | Lehigh -2.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 133 |
- Expect a low-possession scrap decided at the free-throw line, with two bottom-tier offenses trading empty trips until someone finds a jumper.
- Lehigh's guards are the story: the Mountain Hawks are hitting 25.8% from three, 338th nationally, and need Joshua Ingram to break that.
- Lehigh is a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 133.5, both unchanged since our feed first saw the line; Lehigh's offense ranks 335th.
A champion that can't find the rim
Lehigh opened the season as the defending Patriot League champion, received votes in the preseason mid-major poll and brought back 80.6% of last season's minutes. Three games in, the offense looks nothing like a title team's. The Mountain Hawks score 91.9 points per 100 possessions, 335th of 364, and their effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times a two) sits 350th.
The hole is shaped like Nasir Whitlock. He averaged 20.5 points last season and shot 43.3% from three before leaving for Georgia Tech, and nobody has replaced that gravity. Lehigh is making 25.8% of its threes. Peter Kramer, a 37.5% shooter from deep last season, is 0-for-6 this year.
The Brown game showed the cost. Lehigh closed as a 5.5-point favorite at home and lost 65-55. Preseason Player of the Year Hank Alvey made 62.4% of his shots last season; he is at 45.5% now, and Lehigh's offense needs him back to that level more than any single fix on the perimeter.
Marist rebuilt around Dywane Chess
Marist is barely the team that beat Lehigh 78-55 last November. Only 26.9% of last season's minutes returned, so last season's elite defense, which allowed 95.7 points per 100 possessions and ranked 4th nationally, says little about this group.
What Marist has now is Dywane Chess, who has scored 20 in each of his last two games and averages 16.0 points. Jack Graham, a transfer from New Hampshire, has added steady shooting at 4-of-8 from three. Jadin Collins-Roberts drives and draws contact instead, with no made threes this season but an 82.8% free-throw mark.
The new pieces have not learned to close. Marist led Dartmouth 47-38 with 10:53 left in the opener and lost. At UMass Lowell it lost 63-61 in a game with 19 lead changes.
Turnovers and the free-throw line
Marist's biggest weakness is ball security. The Red Foxes give it away on 21.4% of possessions, 314th nationally. That flaw may not cost much here: Lehigh forces turnovers on only 15.9% of trips, 291st.
Both teams lean on free throws while their shots aren't falling. Marist's free throw rate (free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt) is 45.9%, 68th, and Lehigh's is 45.1%, 74th. Neither crashes the offensive glass, so second chances will be scarce. In a game this tight, made free throws could settle it.
Inside, Lehigh's defense has been soft, allowing 62.5% on twos, 344th. Marist hasn't been able to finish at the rim either, making 46.1% of its twos, so that gap only matters if Chess and Collins-Roberts attack it.
The market and the series
Lehigh is a 1.5-point favorite at nine books, and neither the spread nor the 133.5 total has moved since our feed first recorded it Friday morning. Both teams are 1-2 against the spread and have gone under in two of three games.
History leans Lehigh. The Mountain Hawks lead the series 9-1, and Marist's lopsided win last season was its first. Lehigh is coming off five days of rest at home, with this its third straight home game. We found no injuries for either team heading into Friday.
Marist Red Foxes vs Lehigh Mountain Hawks line movement and odds
| Book | Foxes ML | Hawks ML | Foxes spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +125 | -150 | +2.5 (-110) | o132.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | +128 | -162 | +2.5 (-108) | o132.5 (-114) |
| DraftKings | +124 | -148 | +2.5 (-108) | o133.5 (-105) |
| ESPN BET | +120 | -140 | +2.5 (-110) | o133.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | +125 | -150 | +2.5 (-105) | o133 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +122 | -146 | +2.5 (-106) | o132.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +130 | -160 | +2.5 (-105) | o132.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | +126 | -150 | +2.5 (-110) | o132.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Marist Red Foxes vs Lehigh Mountain Hawks
On the Kalshi moneyline: Marist Red Foxes: 44% of bets, 13% of the money; Lehigh Mountain Hawks: 56% of bets, 87% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Lehigh Mountain Hawks -1.5: 65% of bets, 71% of the money; Marist Red Foxes +1.5: 35% of bets, 29% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 133.5: 76% of bets, 4% of the money; Under 133.5: 24% of bets, 96% of the money.
Key players
- Dywane Chess (Marist): Averages 16.0 points on a team-high 28.2% usage and has hit 6 of 13 threes.
- Jadin Collins-Roberts (Marist): Scores 12.7 points per game almost entirely inside the arc and at the line, where he shoots 82.8%.
- Jack Graham (Marist): The New Hampshire transfer carries a 116 offensive rating and has made half of his eight threes.
- Hank Alvey (Lehigh): Averages 10.7 points, a team-high 6.3 rebounds and 1.7 blocks, but has shot 45.5% after 62.4% last season.
- Edouard Benoit (Lehigh): Leads Lehigh at 14.3 points per game despite shooting 34.4% from the field.
- Joshua Ingram (Lehigh): Shoulders a 27.5% usage rate and is Lehigh's best shooter at 38.5% from three.
Numbers that matter
| Lehigh 3-point % | 25.8% | 338th nationally, the clearest sign of how much Lehigh misses Nasir Whitlock's shooting. |
|---|---|---|
| Marist turnover rate | 21.4% | 314th nationally, though Lehigh forces few turnovers. |
| Marist returning minutes | 26.9% | Makes last season's top-five Marist defense a poor guide to this roster. |
| Lehigh opponent 2-point % | 62.5% | 344th nationally, an opening for Marist drivers who have struggled to finish. |
| Spread | -1.5 | Lehigh's line has not moved since our feed first recorded it. |
Marist Red Foxes vs Lehigh Mountain Hawks: quick answers
What was the final score of Marist Red Foxes vs Lehigh Mountain Hawks?
Marist Red Foxes 60, Lehigh Mountain Hawks 65 (final). Lehigh Mountain Hawks covered the closing spread (Marist Red Foxes +2.5). The game went under the closing total of 132.5.
Who is favored in Marist Red Foxes vs Lehigh Mountain Hawks?
Lehigh is favored by 2.5 points (Lehigh -2.5).
What is the over/under for Marist Red Foxes vs Lehigh Mountain Hawks?
The total is 133 points.
When is Marist Red Foxes vs Lehigh Mountain Hawks?
Friday, November 13, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Marist Red Foxes vs Lehigh Mountain Hawks?
Yes: Marist Red Foxes opened +1.5 and is now +2.5, and the total moved from 133 to 132.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Marist Red Foxes vs Lehigh Mountain Hawks?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Marist Red Foxes: 44% of bets, 13% of the money; Lehigh Mountain Hawks: 56% of bets, 87% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Lehigh Mountain Hawks -1.5: 65% of bets, 71% of the money; Marist Red Foxes +1.5: 35% of bets, 29% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 133.5: 76% of bets, 4% of the money; Under 133.5: 24% of bets, 96% of the money.