Fairleigh Dickinson Knights vs Oklahoma Sooners prediction: Oklahoma's shaky shooting gets a soft target in Fairleigh Dickinson

One common opponent, two results

On Nov. 2, East Texas A&M left Lloyd Noble Center with a 68-64 win over an Oklahoma team favored by 30.5. On Wednesday, Fairleigh Dickinson beat that same East Texas A&M team 80-76 in overtime on the road. Tonight in Norman the market asks whether that shared opponent tells us anything, and its answer is Oklahoma by 31.5.

The common score flatters the Knights. East Texas A&M ranked 292nd in last season's adjusted net rating, and FDU's two games against real competition went badly: 120-45 at Illinois, then 99-65 at Butler. Oklahoma's loss also came short-handed. Xzayvier Brown and Finley Keeffe both missed the opener with lower-body injuries, and B.J. Edwards, listed as ineligible in late October, has since joined the rotation. The Oklahoma that lost on Nov. 2 is not quite the Oklahoma that tips tonight.

Threes for the taking

This is the matchup that decides the margin. FDU's defense lets opponents take 61.7% of their shots from beyond the arc, the second-highest share in the country, and those opponents are hitting 38.5% of them. Oklahoma will gladly accept the invitation. The Sooners take 57.2% of their shots from three, seventh-most nationally.

The catch is that they haven't been making them. Oklahoma is shooting 30.1% from deep as a team. Edwards, at 47.1%, has been the exception off the bench. If the rest of the rotation finds its range against open looks, the score gets out of hand quickly.

Inside, the edge is just as clear. Oklahoma converts 62.3% of its twos, and FDU opponents are making 64.0% of theirs.

Extra possessions for the Sooners

Oklahoma has been strong on the offensive glass, grabbing 38.7% of its own misses. FDU ranks 341st in defensive rebounding. That gives a cold-shooting team second chances. Last season the Knights were one of the best defensive-rebounding teams in the country, but only 25.2% of last season's minutes returned, so that profile left with the players.

FDU's best counter is ball security. The Knights turn it over on 14.8% of possessions, 71st nationally, though they now face a defense that ranks 27th in steal rate. If Oklahoma's guards turn steals into transition baskets, FDU's half-court defense never gets set.

Who carries each team

FDU's offense starts with sophomore David Jevtic, the reigning NEC Rookie of the Year. He averages 15.0 points and shoots 44.4% from three. Bol Agu scored 18 in the overtime win, but help has been thin. Travis Torain is 4 of 23 from three, and Pavle Stosic went 0 for 8 against East Texas A&M. FDU is also playing on two days' rest after that overtime game on the road.

Oklahoma's leader so far is Derrion Reid, at 13.7 points per game and 1.3 blocks a game against weaker opponents. Brown came back on Nov. 6 and led the team with seven assists. The list of unknowns is long. Tae Davis had not been medically cleared as of Oct. 27, and no later report shows him playing. Tyler Hendricks was in concussion protocol as of that date, and nothing newer has surfaced. Porter Moser has said injuries made it hard to evaluate his full roster.

A big number that hasn't budged

Oklahoma is -31.5 with the total at 147.5, and neither number has moved since our feed first picked up the game. The two sides arrive with opposite records against the number. Oklahoma failed to cover as a heavy favorite in both lined games, and both went under. FDU's three lined games all went over.

Watch the first half. FDU allows 48.5 first-half points per game, 361st nationally, mostly because of the Illinois and Butler games. Late in the game, Oklahoma's 61.5% free-throw shooting (328th) could cost it points on the closing stretch of a blowout.