Columbia Lions vs Bucknell Bison prediction: Columbia's second-chance machine could bury winless Bucknell in Lewisburg
The Lions rank among the country's best on the offensive glass, and the Bison have been the worst team in Division I at finishing a defensive possession with the ball.
Columbia Lions covered the closing spread (Columbia Lions -5.5). The game went under the closing total of 146.5.
| Spread | Columbia -5.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 146.5 |
- Columbia should control the boards and the paint; Bucknell needs a big volume three-point night to keep this within reach.
- Connor Igoe and Mason Ritter on the offensive glass against a Bucknell defense ranked 364th of 364 in defensive rebound rate.
- Columbia -5.5 and a 145.5 total, both unchanged since our feed first saw them; Bucknell's games are 3-0 to the over.
Every miss is a second chance
Bucknell's 0-3 start has a lot of causes, but one stands above the rest: the Bison can't end a possession. They have grabbed 44.5% of available defensive rebounds, last of 364 Division I teams. Virginia beat them on the glass 52-29 on Tuesday, and Bucknell's offensive rebound rate (21.2%, 353rd) means the bleeding runs both ways.
Columbia is built to exploit exactly that. The Lions are rebounding 45.1% of their own misses, 15th nationally, and that isn't a three-game fluke: they ranked 13th in the same stat last season. Connor Igoe is the engine, averaging 9.0 rebounds and 4.3 assists in 25 minutes from the frontcourt.
The caveat is the schedule. Columbia piled up those boards against Elon, Stonehill and Old Westbury, while Bucknell's numbers came partly against Maryland and Virginia. Still, the gap is wide enough that Columbia should see extra possessions most of the night.
Bucknell's only real path
The Bison take 54.7% of their shots from three, 11th-most in the country, and for good reason: they're making just 42.5% of their twos, 341st. Their offense is a high-assist, ball-moving operation that hunts perimeter looks.
Columbia's defense hasn't allowed many. Opponents have taken only 28.6% of their shots from deep against the Lions, 358th of 364, meaning almost nobody has been allowed fewer attempts. If Columbia keeps Bucknell off the line and off the arc, the Bison are left with the inside game that has failed them.
That puts the game on Aleksander Pachucki. He hit 7 of 11 threes at Maryland, then cooled to 3 of 10 against Old Dominion and 2 of 9 at Virginia. Bucknell needs the Maryland version.
Two rebuilds, unequal footing
Fourth-year coach John Griffin III rebuilt Bucknell with 11 new players, and only 34.7% of last season's minutes are back. Last season's numbers say little about this group. Division II transfer Rocco Lamuno has been the most efficient piece, and Northeastern transfer Luca Soroa Schaller has started every game.
Columbia returns 55.9% of its minutes under second-year coach Kevin Hovde, though it lost Kenny Noland, who averaged 17.1 points last season and is now at Michigan. Gerard O'Keefe has stepped into that scoring role at 16.0 points per game, including 22 against Stonehill. Hampton Sanders added 14 off the bench in that game, and freshman Josh Pratt has already shown he can score.
Availability is murky for Bucknell. Freshman Ludvik Bergseng, a 6-11 big, was described in the preseason as working back from an injury, but a Nov. 11 injury listing showed nothing for the Bison, and Bucknell hasn't addressed it. His size would matter in a game decided on the glass. Nothing has surfaced on Columbia injuries.
Where the number sits
Columbia is a 5.5-point road favorite with a total of 145.5, and neither has moved since our feed first recorded them. This is the Lions' first road game of the season.
Columbia is a clear favorite over a winless team, though there are reasons for caution on the Lions. The Lions lost 84-71 at home to Elon as 4.5-point favorites, trailing by 12 at halftime. Bucknell, meanwhile, fell 82-62 at home to Old Dominion as a 5-point underdog, its only home game so far.
The Bison's defense has also driven totals: all three of their games went over, with opponents shooting 38.3% from three. Last season's final adjusted ratings had Columbia 190th and Bucknell 334th, a gap worth weighing against the rebuilt rosters.
Columbia Lions vs Bucknell Bison line movement and odds
| Book | Lions ML | Bison ML | Lions spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -235 | +190 | -5.5 (-110) | o146.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | -265 | +200 | -5.5 (-113) | o146.5 (-109) |
| DraftKings | -245 | +200 | -5.5 (-110) | o146.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | -240 | +200 | -5.5 (-115) | o146.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | -235 | +190 | -5.5 (-110) | o146.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -215 | +176 | -5.5 (-105) | o145.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -260 | +200 | -5.5 (-110) | o146.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | -240 | +196 | -5.5 (-110) | o146.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Columbia Lions vs Bucknell Bison
On the Kalshi moneyline: Columbia Lions: 77% of bets, 82% of the money; Bucknell Bison: 23% of bets, 18% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Columbia Lions -3.5: 86% of bets, 99% of the money; Bucknell Bison +3.5: 14% of bets, 1% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 147.5: 73% of bets, 92% of the money; Under 147.5: 27% of bets, 8% of the money.
Key players
- Gerard O'Keefe (Columbia): Averaging 16.0 points and shooting 6 of 10 from three after hitting 42.9% from deep last season.
- Connor Igoe (Columbia): Posting 9.0 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game, the key figure against Bucknell's last-ranked defensive rebounding.
- Hampton Sanders (Columbia): Leads the Lions with 5.3 assists and 2.7 steals per game and scored 14 off the bench against Stonehill.
- Aleksander Pachucki (Bucknell): Averaging 15.3 points while making 12 of 30 threes, Bucknell's best hope against a defense that limits attempts.
- Rocco Lamuno (Bucknell): Has the team's best offensive rating among regulars at 125.1, with 4 of 9 shooting from three.
- Jayden Williams (Bucknell): Started all 33 games last season but is shooting 1 of 9 from three so far.
Numbers that matter
| Bucknell defensive rebound rate | 44.5% | Ranks 364th of 364, the worst mark in Division I. |
|---|---|---|
| Columbia offensive rebound rate | 45.1% | Ranks 15th nationally, after ranking 13th last season. |
| Bucknell 3-point attempt rate | 54.7% | 11th-most in the country, a necessity given its 341st-ranked two-point shooting. |
| Columbia opponent 3-point attempt rate | 28.6% | Ranks 358th, meaning Columbia has allowed among the fewest threes in the nation. |
| Spread | -5.5 | Columbia's line as a road favorite, unchanged since first seen. |
Columbia Lions vs Bucknell Bison: quick answers
What was the final score of Columbia Lions vs Bucknell Bison?
Columbia Lions 77, Bucknell Bison 59 (final). Columbia Lions covered the closing spread (Columbia Lions -5.5). The game went under the closing total of 146.5.
Who is favored in Columbia Lions vs Bucknell Bison?
Columbia is favored by 5.5 points (Columbia -5.5).
What is the over/under for Columbia Lions vs Bucknell Bison?
The total is 146.5 points.
When is Columbia Lions vs Bucknell Bison?
Friday, November 13, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Columbia Lions vs Bucknell Bison?
Yes: Columbia Lions opened -3.5 and is now -5.5, and the total moved from 146 to 146.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Columbia Lions vs Bucknell Bison?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Columbia Lions: 77% of bets, 82% of the money; Bucknell Bison: 23% of bets, 18% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Columbia Lions -3.5: 86% of bets, 99% of the money; Bucknell Bison +3.5: 14% of bets, 1% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 147.5: 73% of bets, 92% of the money; Under 147.5: 27% of bets, 8% of the money.