Alcorn St Braves vs Tarleton State Texans prediction: Alcorn State keeps losing games by halftime. Tarleton State is next.
The winless Braves have trailed big at the break in all three games, and Tarleton's hot starts and stingy interior defense set up the same trap tonight in Stephenville.
Alcorn St Braves covered the closing spread (Alcorn St Braves +16.5). The game went under the closing total of 150.5.
| Spread | Tarleton State -16 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 151.5 |
- Tarleton should build its margin early: Alcorn State has given up 47 or more first-half points in all three losses.
- Alcorn's guards attacking a Tarleton defense holding opponents to 35.9% on twos, 11th nationally, with shot-blockers waiting.
- Tarleton is a 14.5-point favorite with a 151.5 total, unchanged since our feed first saw it; Alcorn is 0-3 against the spread.
The game is decided early
Alcorn State has not lost close. It has lost by halftime. The Braves trailed 52-31 at Ole Miss, 47-32 at home against Howard and 51-30 at Murray State, and they allow 50.0 first-half points per game, 363rd of 364 Division I teams.
Tarleton State starts fast. The Texans led at the break in all three of their games, including 46-32 at San Diego, and average 42.7 first-half points, 86th nationally. If the pattern holds, the second half becomes a test of whether Tarleton keeps pressing or empties its bench.
The series history leans the same way. Tarleton has won the last six matchups in the series and the last eight home matchups in Stephenville.
Nothing comes easy inside
Alcorn's offense has lived badly inside the arc. The Braves make 41.7% of their two-pointers, 347th nationally, and that is the area where Tarleton has been strongest. The Texans hold opponents to 35.9% on twos, 11th in the country, and block 16.5% of opponents' two-point tries, 40th.
One caution: two of Tarleton's three games came against Cameron and UT Dallas, opponents with no opponent-adjusted rating in the packet, which may flatter any defensive number. San Diego put up 96 on the Texans in an overtime win. Still, the opposite end is no secret. Alcorn lets opponents hit 67.9% of their twos, 361st, so the Texans should find the rim open.
Alcorn's best answer may be size. Christian Richardson, a 7-foot-1 center, arrived from Omaha after shooting 72.7% from the field there last season.
Turnovers and the foul line
Ball security is the Braves' deepest wound. Their turnover rate, turnovers per 100 possessions, is 26.6%, 359th nationally, and Ole Miss forced 26 turnovers in the opener. Tarleton's own defense forces turnovers at a middling 20.2% clip, 141st, but it doesn't need to be elite against this ball-handling.
The free-throw line tilts the same way. Tarleton's free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) is 52.6%, 24th in the country. Alcorn's defense allows a 57.9% rate, 358th. And when Alcorn earns trips, it converts just 59.7% of them, 338th.
Two rebuilt rosters
Neither team looks much like last season's. Alcorn returns zero percent of its minutes under second-year coach Jake Morton. Tarleton brings back 16.4% for first-year coach Eric Haut, whose 16-man roster has 12 newcomers. Last season's numbers are a weak guide for either side.
The Texans' engine is a returner who grew. Leroy Kelly IV averaged 5.8 points last season and now posts 16.0 points and 9.3 rebounds. Brett Freeman, a reserve, scored 21 against UT Dallas.
Alcorn's offense runs through Trey Thomas, who uses 42.8% of possessions while he's on the floor but shoots 32.6% from the field. Calvin Sirmans, a Stetson transfer, is the efficient creator, averaging 6.3 assists, and he led the Braves with 20 at Ole Miss.
Where the market sits
Tarleton is a 14.5-point favorite with a total of 151.5, and neither number has moved since our feed first recorded the line this morning. Nine books are quoting it.
Alcorn has failed to cover all three games, including closing as a 30.5-point underdog at Ole Miss and as a 9.5-point underdog against Howard. Tarleton's only lined game was a cover as a 7.5-point underdog in the 96-90 overtime loss at San Diego.
On the total, Alcorn's games have gone over twice in three tries. Tarleton is the slower of the two this season, at 71.2 possessions per 40 minutes.
Alcorn St Braves vs Tarleton State Texans line movement and odds
| Book | Braves ML | Texans ML | Braves spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +950 | -2000 | +16.5 (-118) | o150.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | +950 | -2500 | +16.5 (-107) | o150.5 (-115) |
| DraftKings | +1000 | -1800 | +16.5 (-118) | o150.5 (-115) |
| ESPN BET | +1000 | -2000 | +15.5 (-105) | o151.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +1000 | -1800 | +16 (-110) | o151 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +1100 | -2500 | +15.5 (-102) | o150.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1000 | -2500 | +16.5 (-105) | o150.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | +1050 | -2000 | +16 (-110) | o151 (-110) |
Where the money is on Alcorn St Braves vs Tarleton State Texans
On the Kalshi moneyline: Alcorn St Braves: 59% of bets, 4% of the money; Tarleton State Texans: 41% of bets, 96% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Tarleton State Texans -16.5: 68% of bets, 62% of the money; Alcorn St Braves +16.5: 32% of bets, 38% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 151.5: 47% of bets, 37% of the money; Under 151.5: 53% of bets, 63% of the money.
Key players
- Leroy Kelly IV (Tarleton State): Averages 16.0 points and 9.3 rebounds with a 137.3 offensive rating, up from 5.8 points last season.
- Brett Freeman (Tarleton State): Scored 21 against UT Dallas on 7-of-14 shooting and uses 33.4% of possessions while on the floor.
- TJ Cope (Tarleton State): Averages 12.0 points and 1.3 blocks, but has made 52.2% of his free throws.
- Trey Thomas (Alcorn State): Averages 19.5 points with a 42.8% usage rate but shoots 32.6% from the field.
- Calvin Sirmans (Alcorn State): Averages 6.3 assists and has made 5 of 8 threes, scoring 20 at Ole Miss.
- Adam Tokpah (Alcorn State): Leads the listed rotation with 5.3 rebounds in 18.0 minutes per game.
Numbers that matter
| Alcorn first-half points allowed | 50.0 | Ranks 363rd of 364; the Braves have trailed by double digits at halftime in every game. |
|---|---|---|
| Tarleton opponent two-point % | 35.9% | 11th nationally, against an Alcorn offense making 41.7% of its twos. |
| Alcorn turnover rate | 26.6% | 359th of 364; Ole Miss forced 26 turnovers in the opener. |
| Tarleton free throw rate | 52.6% | 24th nationally, facing an Alcorn defense ranked 358th in free throw rate allowed. |
| Spread | -14.5 | Tarleton's line has not moved since it first appeared, and Alcorn is 0-3 against the spread. |
Alcorn St Braves vs Tarleton State Texans: quick answers
What was the final score of Alcorn St Braves vs Tarleton State Texans?
Alcorn St Braves 69, Tarleton State Texans 73 (final). Alcorn St Braves covered the closing spread (Alcorn St Braves +16.5). The game went under the closing total of 150.5.
Who is favored in Alcorn St Braves vs Tarleton State Texans?
Tarleton State is favored by 16 points (Tarleton State -16).
What is the over/under for Alcorn St Braves vs Tarleton State Texans?
The total is 151.5 points.
When is Alcorn St Braves vs Tarleton State Texans?
Friday, November 13, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Alcorn St Braves vs Tarleton State Texans?
Yes: Alcorn St Braves opened +12.5 and is now +16.5, and the total moved from 151 to 150.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Alcorn St Braves vs Tarleton State Texans?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Alcorn St Braves: 59% of bets, 4% of the money; Tarleton State Texans: 41% of bets, 96% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Tarleton State Texans -16.5: 68% of bets, 62% of the money; Alcorn St Braves +16.5: 32% of bets, 38% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 151.5: 47% of bets, 37% of the money; Under 151.5: 53% of bets, 63% of the money.