Utah Jazz vs Minnesota Timberwolves prediction: Without Edwards, Minnesota's defense still squeezes a sputtering Jazz offense

The best team nobody expected

Minnesota lost Anthony Edwards to arthroscopic surgery on his right knee. Instead the Wolves are 7-3 and sit 1st of 30 in net efficiency at +10.3 points per 100 possessions. Edwards remains out, with an estimated return of Dec. 21.

The defense is the reason. Minnesota allows 103.7 points per 100 possessions, 3rd in the league, and opponents hit just 32.2% from three against it. Utah brings the opposite profile into Target Center: an offense scoring 102.0 points per 100 possessions, 29th, with an effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 49.8, 28th. The Jazz arrive on a seven-game losing streak, and Minnesota opens an eight-game homestand here.

The Wolves have spread the load. LaMelo Ball, Ayo Dosunmu and Jaden McDaniels all score around 17 a night, and Bones Hyland's role has grown: he averaged 16 minutes in the five games after Edwards went down, up from eight before.

Possessions Utah can't afford

After the Friday loss in Dallas, Will Hardy pointed to turnovers and offensive rebounds. Those are the two leaks Minnesota exploits best.

Utah gives the ball away on 17.0% of its possessions, 26th in the league, while Minnesota forces turnovers at the 9th-highest rate. On the glass, the Wolves grab 32.1% of their own misses, 3rd in the league. That is the one place Utah has a real counter: the Jazz rank 6th in defensive rebound rate. If Utah holds that line, it keeps the margin manageable. If not, a 22-10 run like the one that sank them in Dallas becomes likely again.

A rare Wolves weakness

Minnesota does have a soft spot, and Utah tends to feed it. The Jazz foul constantly, with an opponent free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 35.3%, 28th. The Wolves, though, are the worst free throw shooting team in the league at 64.8%.

The culprits start in the frontcourt. Rudy Gobert shoots 40.8% at the line and Jonathan Kuminga 52.8%. That's an odd fit for a 42.6% three-point shooter, but trips to the line are where Minnesota leaves points on the floor, and where a big favorite's margin can stall late.

Markkanen's wrist and Utah's ceiling

Lauri Markkanen is questionable with a right wrist sprain. He appeared to aggravate it in the last game and said he is playing through some pain. He is Utah's only efficient perimeter threat, hitting 39.7% from three.

Without him, the scoring falls to Keyonte George, who averages 21.3 points, and young guards still finding their shot. Darryn Peterson is shooting 36.9% from the field, and Ace Bailey has hit 22.4% of his threes. Jaren Jackson Jr. (torn MCL) and Jusuf Nurkic (foot) remain out.

Minnesota has its own question marks. Joan Beringer (nasal fracture) is questionable after missing Friday. Terrence Shannon's hip status is unsettled: one Saturday report had him off the injury report, another listed him out.

What the market is saying

Minnesota is an 11.5-point favorite, a point higher than the -10.5 first posted. The total sits at 224.0. The ATS records explain the move: the Wolves are 9-1 against the spread, the Jazz 1-8, failing to cover four straight before this game.

Utah games have leaned low, going under in 6 of 9, a product of that bottom-tier offense despite a pace that ranks 5th. Last season's series offers little comfort for Utah. Minnesota won three of four, including a 147-111 rout in Minneapolis in March.