New Orleans Pelicans vs Los Angeles Clippers prediction: Zion and the Pelicans hunt the paint against a reeling Clippers team

Zion and the open lane

The Clippers have lost seven straight, and the clearest reason they could make it eight is standing in the middle of the floor. New Orleans scores 61.6 points in the paint per game, 1st of 30. The Clippers allow 55.0 paint points a game, 30th of 30. No matchup in this game is more lopsided.

Zion Williamson is the engine. He is averaging 20.6 points on 59.8% shooting, nearly all of it going downhill. The Clippers will try to stop him without Isaiah Jackson, who is out with a groin injury, and without Yanic Konan Niederhauser, still out after foot surgery. That pushes more of the rim duty toward Brook Lopez, a 7-foot-1 center whose game this season has been as much about spacing as protection.

The Pelicans also lead the league in fast-break points at 19.9 a game. They play at the 2nd-fastest pace in the league, so the Clippers will see a lot of possessions in transition before their half-court defense is even set.

Giveaways feed the break

The Clippers cough it up more than anyone. Their turnover rate (giveaways per 100 possessions) is 19.4%, 30th of 30. That is a dangerous habit against a New Orleans team with the 2nd-best steal rate in the league at 11.0%.

Darius Garland carries the Clippers' offense, and his 26 points against Miami came with six turnovers. Williamson is averaging 2.6 steals a game, an unusual number for a forward, and Dejounte Murray adds 2.2 in his six appearances. Every live-ball turnover turns into the kind of open-floor chance that has the Pelicans first in the league in fast-break points.

Where the Clippers can answer

The Clippers' path runs through the arc. They shoot 38.2% from three, 2nd of 30, and Derrick Jones Jr. (50.0%) and Lopez (42.3%) have been accurate stretch options.

New Orleans gives up plenty of threes but hasn't paid for it yet: opponents take 43.7% of their shots from deep and are hitting just 31.2%, 2nd-best in the league. That number has a lot of luck in it this early. If the Clippers' shooters keep hitting, they can trade threes for twos, especially against a Pelicans team that takes the fewest threes in the league and shoots 32.7% when it does.

The weak spot for the Clippers is everything inside the arc. They hit 50.6% of their twos, 28th of 30, so a cold shooting night leaves them with little to fall back on.

A slump and a short line

The Clippers' most recent game captured their season: they blew a 19-point lead and lost 117-116 to Miami in overtime. They have had four days since then to regroup, while New Orleans has had two after a loss to Minnesota that snapped its four-game winning streak.

Brandon Ingram remains out. He said Friday he was "pretty close" to his Clippers debut after full-contact work, but he won't play Sunday. Bradley Beal is also out. For New Orleans, Yves Missi is out with a knee bruise. Trey Murphy III was probable for Friday's game with tendinopathy in both knees and isn't on Sunday's injury report.

The market makes New Orleans a 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 229, and neither number has moved since our feed first recorded them. The Pelicans have covered in six of nine games and gone over in six of nine. Last season New Orleans won both March meetings at home, 124-109 and 105-99, after the Clippers had taken the first two in Inglewood.