Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks prediction: Tatum rejoins the Celtics for a Bucks rematch that nearly slipped away

The rematch, now with Tatum

Four days ago the Celtics led Milwaukee by 22 in the first half at TD Garden and looked finished with the night. The Bucks clawed back and took a 92-91 lead in the final seven minutes. Boston recovered to win 109-102, and it did all of that with Jayson Tatum sitting out on rest.

Tatum plays Sunday. He is averaging 27.9 points and 8.0 assists this season, running the offense as much as finishing it since his return from a torn Achilles last March. His jumper is still catching up, at 28.6% from three. Friday at Charlotte he poured in 34 points through three quarters with five made threes, then sat the fourth of a 119-80 NBA Cup rout. No report lists him as out tonight.

Paul George has been the steadier shooter, scoring 19.6 points a game on 41.3% from deep. Payton Pritchard left Wednesday's game with an eye abrasion but returned against the Hornets. Devin Carter remains out with mononucleosis and has no timetable. Derrick White, Jordan Walsh, George, Tatum and Mitchell Robinson started Boston's first five games.

Milwaukee loses the first half

This is the first season of Milwaukee's post-Giannis era. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis went to Miami for Tyler Herro, Kel'el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Kasparas Jakucionis, and Taylor Jenkins took over after Doc Rivers resigned. So far the new group has dug its own holes early.

Boston allows 49.4 first-half points per game, fewest in the league. Milwaukee scores 50.8 before halftime, worst in the league. Wednesday's game reached the break at 62-41, and Cleveland led the Bucks 72-46 at halftime on Oct. 31. The one time Milwaukee owned a first half lately, it led Toronto 60-51 at the break Friday and lost anyway.

Herro has said effort, not talent, has to fix the start. Effort is the only explanation for Wednesday's second half, because almost none of Milwaukee's season numbers point to a comeback.

Threes and second chances

Milwaukee's way back into games runs through the three-point line and the offensive glass. Boston's defense invites that approach. Celtics opponents take 50.9% of their shots from three, the highest share in the league, because Boston walls off the paint. Only one team allows fewer paint points than Boston's 37.3 a game.

The Bucks take 47.6% of their shots from deep, fourth-most in the league, and their shooters are hot. Herro is hitting 41.1% from three on a team-high volume. AJ Green is at 45.7% off the bench. If those two get loose, the 12.5 spread gets uncomfortable fast.

Boston's soft spot is its defensive rebounding. The Celtics rank 25th, holding only 69.4% of opponents' misses. Milwaukee crashes well, at 7th in offensive rebound rate. Extra shots are the Bucks' realistic path to staying close.

Turnovers push the other way. Milwaukee ranks last in the league at forcing them. Boston forces 17.2 per 100 possessions, 5th-best, against a Bucks team that ranks 22nd at protecting the ball.

What the market is saying

Boston is a 12.5-point favorite, a point higher than the 11.5 our feed first recorded. That is the same number the Bucks covered Wednesday. Milwaukee is 3-6 against the spread overall, so that cover was more exception than habit.

The total sits at 223, up from 221. That rise works against Boston's profile. Celtics games have gone under in 7 of 9 tries, including all five of their most recent, and Boston plays at the league's 27th-fastest pace. The Bucks play faster, at 8th. Whoever sets the tempo will likely shape the total.

Boston has also won the last four meetings. Most of those came against a Milwaukee roster that no longer exists.

Milwaukee's injury picture is mostly settled. Pete Nance, Cormac Ryan and Bogoljub Markovic are on G League assignment. Kam Jones's status is unresolved: he has been listed both as day-to-day with an ankle issue and as out on assignment.