Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder prediction: Jokic and a rebuilt Nuggets offense open against Oklahoma City's wall
Last season's best offense brings a reshuffled supporting cast into Paycom Center, where the league's stingiest defense of 2025-26 has already looked sharp in one game this fall.
| Spread | Oklahoma City Thunder -8 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 236.5 |
- Oklahoma City's defense tries to squeeze a Denver offense breaking in new pieces, while Gilgeous-Alexander tests a Nuggets defense that forced few turnovers last season.
- Jokic against Holmgren and the Thunder's rim protection decides whether Denver's half-court offense keeps its efficiency against an elite defense.
- Thunder -8.5, up from -8 when our feed first saw it; Oklahoma City won three of the four meetings last season.
Best offense, best defense
Two MVPs, one rivalry, and the opening night of Denver's season. Gilgeous-Alexander won the award in 2025 and 2026; Jokic won it in 2021, 2022 and 2024. Oklahoma City beat Denver in seven games in the 2025 Western Conference semifinals and took three of four meetings last season, though the Nuggets won the last one 127-107 in April.
The core collision is simple. Denver scored 119.6 points per 100 possessions last season, 1st of 30. Oklahoma City allowed 105.1 per 100, also 1st. The Nuggets' shot-making drove it: their effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 57.7% led the league. The Thunder held opponents to 51.9% on that measure, 2nd in the NBA.
Oklahoma City's opener showed the defense hasn't slipped. The Thunder won 116-104 at San Antonio on Tuesday after leading 65-44 at halftime, with Gilgeous-Alexander scoring 32.
A different Denver supporting cast
Denver's last-season numbers come with a caveat. Only 61.1% of last season's minutes return, and the departures hit the wings: Peyton Watson (14.6 points per game last season) is in Cleveland and Tim Hardaway Jr. (13.5) is in Miami, with Bruce Brown also gone.
The headline addition is DeMar DeRozan, who averaged 18.4 points for Sacramento last season and is slated for a big bench role. Marvin Bagley III arrives as the backup center, and coach David Adelman has talked about playing five reserves together early in the season. That makes this opener a first live look at how Denver's second unit holds up against a deep Thunder rotation.
The constants are Jokic and Jamal Murray, who shot 43.5% from three last season. Spencer Jones (hamstring) was questionable as of Wednesday's report after practicing earlier in the week; Julian Strawther (knee sprain) is out and won't be re-evaluated for six weeks.
Turnovers and the rim
Oklahoma City lives on extra possessions. Its defense forced turnovers on 16.3% of opponent possessions last season, 2nd in the league. Denver is built to blunt that: its 12.6% turnover rate ranked 3rd. If Jokic keeps the ball safe, the Thunder lose their favorite shortcut.
The flip side favors OKC. Denver forced turnovers at the lowest rate in the league last season, 30th of 30, and its block rate ranked 29th. That gives Gilgeous-Alexander clean looks with little resistance at the rim. At the other end, Chet Holmgren averaged 1.9 blocks last season, anchoring a Thunder team that ranked 2nd in block rate. How Jokic handles that length inside is the matchup to watch.
Oklahoma City is thin on guards: Nikola Topic (back) and Thomas Sorber (knee) are out, and Otega Oweh is lost for the season after Achilles surgery. Ajay Mitchell and newcomer Jared McCain should absorb those minutes.
Where the market sits
The Thunder are 8.5-point favorites, up from -8 when our feed first logged the game, with the moneyline at -330. The total of 235.5 hasn't moved.
That number leans on Denver's scoring history. The Nuggets went over in 42 of 66 lined games last season, while Oklahoma City went 29-35 against the spread despite 64 wins, a reminder that big numbers on this team were hard to clear. The Thunder's opener stayed under its 229.5 total, but Denver hasn't played a game that counts yet; its last outing was a 121-106 preseason win at the Lakers on Oct. 16.
Key players
- Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets): Averaged 27.7 points, 12.9 rebounds and 10.7 assists for Denver last season.
- Jamal Murray (Denver Nuggets): Scored 25.4 points per game last season and shot 43.5% from three.
- DeMar DeRozan (Denver Nuggets): Averaged 18.4 points for the Sacramento Kings last season before joining Denver.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Oklahoma City Thunder): Averaged 31.1 points last season and opened this one with 32 at San Antonio.
- Chet Holmgren (Oklahoma City Thunder): Posted 17.1 points and 1.9 blocks per game for OKC last season.
- Ajay Mitchell (Oklahoma City Thunder): Averaged 13.6 points last season and should see more minutes with Topic out.
Numbers that matter
| Denver offensive efficiency, last season | 119.6 | Points per 100 possessions, 1st in the NBA in 2025-26. |
|---|---|---|
| OKC defensive efficiency, last season | 105.1 | Points allowed per 100 possessions, the league's best in 2025-26. |
| Denver returning minutes | 61.1% | Share of last season's minutes still on the roster, so its team numbers are a looser guide. |
| OKC forced turnover rate, last season | 16.3% | 2nd in the league, against a Denver offense that ranked 3rd in ball security. |
| Current spread | -8.5 | Oklahoma City's line, moved up from -8 since our feed first saw it. |
Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder: quick answers
Who is favored in Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder?
Oklahoma City Thunder is favored by 8 points (Oklahoma City Thunder -8).
What is the over/under for Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder?
The total is 236.5 points.
When is Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder?
Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 9:40 PM ET.