New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears prediction: Drake Maye's rebuilt line tests a Bears rush missing Montez Sweat

The line nobody planned on

Two 4-2 teams on a short week, and the Patriots arrive at Soldier Field with the problem that keeps coaches up on a Monday night: a makeshift offensive line in front of their franchise quarterback. Interior starters Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown are both out. Mike Vrabel confirmed that Walter Rouse and Matt Pryor will start, with Jared Wilson expected at center and Will Campbell at left tackle. Right tackle Morgan Moses is questionable with a foot injury, and Caleb Lomu may be asked to cover more than one spot.

So far, protection has been a strength. New England allows a sack on 5.0% of dropbacks (sack rate: sacks per dropback), 9th in the league. Chicago's defense brings quarterbacks down on 9.0% of dropbacks, 2nd. The twist is who is left to rush. Montez Sweat is serving a two-game suspension for violating the league's performance-enhancing substances policy, and Dayo Odeyingbo went on injured reserve with a quadriceps injury. The Bears must defend their rank without two of their defensive ends, which makes this trench fight closer than the numbers alone suggest.

Where Chicago's defense cracks

The Bears win most snaps and lose the big ones. They allow a success rate (the share of snaps that keep an offense on schedule) of 40.1%, 4th best in the league. Yet they give up explosive plays (runs of 10-plus yards, passes of 20-plus) on 11.0% of snaps, the worst rate in the NFL.

That profile suits Maye, who averages 8.0 yards per attempt and has the Patriots on a three-game winning streak. He threw three touchdown passes in last week's win over the Jets. His vertical options thinned when Romeo Doubs went on injured reserve with a shoulder injury. DeMario Douglas, Hunter Henry and Mack Hollins absorb those targets now. If the patched line buys Maye even a beat, the shots downfield are there.

Williams back, Monangai out

Caleb Williams returned from a hamstring absence last week and completed 30 of 36 passes in the win at Atlanta. He was off the injury report as of Monday, and no new designation has surfaced since. While he was out, Tyson Bagent threw three interceptions without a touchdown pass.

Williams draws a thin secondary. Cornerbacks Carlton Davis III, Karon Prunty and Channing Canada are all out, though Christian Gonzalez is back from a shoulder injury. Safeties Kevin Byard and Craig Woodson are both questionable. Luther Burden III leads Chicago with 361 receiving yards and should see plenty of matchups against backups.

The Bears' identity is volume. They run 72.0 offensive plays per game, the most in the league, and lead the NFL with 160.7 rushing yards per game. Kyle Monangai is out for a third straight game, so D'Andre Swift carries the load with Roschon Johnson behind him. New England allows few rushing yards, but its EPA per designed run allowed (expected points added: how much each snap moves a team toward points) ranks 25th. Opponents have run efficiently even when the yardage stays modest.

Turnovers and a steady line

Both teams give the ball away too often. New England averages 2.2 giveaways per game, 31st in the league, and Maye has thrown seven interceptions. Chicago is not much cleaner, ranking 26th. Against a Bears defense that rarely lets a drive stay on schedule, a Patriots giveaway could swing field position and the game.

The market has not moved. Chicago is a 3-point favorite with a 50.5 total, the same numbers posted Oct. 20. That total sits high for a Bears team whose games have mostly stayed under. The forecast calls for mild temperatures, light wind and no rain, so weather shouldn't tilt the script. The last meeting, in 2024 at Soldier Field, went to New England 19-3, with Williams sacked nine times.