Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens prediction: Herbert's sack problem and Brissett's debut shape a Monday slog in Baltimore
A winless Chargers team that can't keep its quarterback upright visits a Ravens team down to its third starting quarterback, and the market expects very few points.
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens -4.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 38.5 |
Baltimore Ravens win 47% of the simulated games, Los Angeles Chargers 53%. Median score: Los Angeles Chargers 21, Baltimore Ravens 19. Watch the most typical game, play by play.
- Expect a grinding, low-scoring game: Baltimore leans on Derrick Henry around Jacoby Brissett while Justin Herbert tries to survive the pocket.
- Chargers pass protection, allowing sacks on 10.5% of dropbacks (31st), against a Ravens rush that ranks 21st in sack rate.
- Ravens -5, down from -5.25 when our feed first saw it; total 38.5. The Chargers are 0-7-1 against the spread this season.
Herbert behind a collapsing wall
Monday night offers a pairing of two teams in free fall. The Chargers are 0-8 and effectively out of the playoff race. The Ravens are 4-5, have lost four straight, and will start a quarterback they acquired by trade last week. The game turns on which broken offense breaks less.
For Los Angeles, the break starts up front. Justin Herbert has been sacked 31 times in eight games, and eight of those came Sunday against Houston, a career high. The Chargers allow a sack on 10.5% of dropbacks (sack rate: sacks per dropback), 31st in the league. Right guard Cole Strange was benched at one point against the Texans, and Jim Harbaugh said Strange has "a chance" to lose his job.
The pressure feeds the worst offense in football. The Chargers rank 32nd in EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap moved a team toward points). They also rank last in giveaways at 2.2 per game, and Herbert has thrown 11 interceptions against six touchdowns.
His finger is the smaller worry. X-rays on his left middle finger, on his non-throwing hand, showed no fracture, and Harbaugh said he "should be good to go." He was still listed as questionable as of Monday, Nov. 9. DJ Uiagalelei finished the Houston game. Baltimore's pass rush is ordinary, with a 5.2% sack rate that ranks 21st, but against this line ordinary may be plenty.
Baltimore turns to Brissett
Lamar Jackson is on injured reserve after thumb surgery and is projected to miss at least six weeks, though he has told teammates he plans to return this season. Tyler Huntley is out for the year with a toe injury. Undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano started last Thursday's loss to Jacksonville and threw for 60 yards with two interceptions.
So coach Jesse Minter said Jacoby Brissett, acquired in a trade with Arizona, is expected to start. He walks behind a line that allows sacks on 8.0% of dropbacks, 24th in the league, and the latest available status for several Ravens linemen dates to the Nov. 3 injury cycle. Practice reports for this week are not out yet.
The stakes are real for Baltimore. The Ravens are 1-3 at home, and they finish the season with four AFC North games, so a loss to a winless team would cut deep into their margin for error while Jackson is out.
Henry carries the plan
With a new quarterback, expect Baltimore to lean harder on what already works. The Ravens run for 137.8 yards per game, 4th in the league, and throw on just 48.9% of early downs, 30th. Derrick Henry has 689 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns, and Justice Hill has been the change-of-pace spark.
The Chargers allow 122.0 rushing yards per game, 20th, so the ground game has room. The Los Angeles defense is not the main problem, though. Opponents convert just 34.3% of third downs against it, 8th best, and it forces 1.4 takeaways per game, 10th. Those numbers give a turnover-prone offense a sliver of hope against a quarterback learning a new playbook.
The Baltimore secondary is thin. Cornerback Deane Leonard (concussion) and safety Kendall Williamson (calf) are listed as out. Kyle Hamilton is questionable with a hip injury that knocked him out of the Jacksonville game.
A total built for punts
The Ravens are 5-point favorites, a touch below the -5.25 our feed first recorded, and the total has sat at 38.5 throughout. That is a low number, and the Chargers' profile explains it: they score 15.1 points per game, last in the league, and finish just 47.4% of red-zone trips with touchdowns, 29th.
The Chargers are 0-7-1 against the spread, and their games have gone under six times in eight. Baltimore has been little better for bettors at 2-6-1 against the spread.
The kickoff forecast is cold and dry with light wind, so weather should not tilt the script. Baltimore has won the last three meetings, including a 30-23 win in 2024, but neither roster resembles that one at quarterback.
What to watch
- Early-down sacks: if Herbert goes down on first and second down, the Chargers' drives stall before they start.
- Ladd McConkey's status: he missed Week 9 with back spasms and is day-to-day; without him, Herbert's quick-game outlet shrinks.
- Brissett's ball security: the Chargers' takeaway rate is the one area where this defense can swing the game.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens line movement and odds
| Book | Chargers ML | Ravens ML | Chargers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +175 | -210 | +4 (-105) | o38.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +170 | -210 | +4 (-109) | o39 (-110) |
| DraftKings | +185 | -225 | +4.5 (-112) | o38.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | +175 | -210 | +4 (-110) | o38.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | +175 | -215 | +4.5 (-115) | o38.5 (-115) |
| FanDuel | +168 | -200 | +4.5 (-120) | o38.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +180 | -220 | +4 (-110) | o38.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +178 | -213 | +4.5 (-114) | o38.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens
On the Kalshi moneyline: Los Angeles Chargers: 54% of bets, 46% of the money; Baltimore Ravens: 47% of bets, 54% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Baltimore Ravens -4.5: 60% of bets, 52% of the money; Los Angeles Chargers +4.5: 40% of bets, 48% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 38.5: 58% of bets, 79% of the money; Under 38.5: 42% of bets, 21% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: Los Angeles Chargers (2 wallets, $362) vs Baltimore Ravens (1 wallet, $1,237). Largest: Official-Arrogance $1,237 on Baltimore Ravens, Open-Fingernail-Bullet $314 on Los Angeles Chargers, 0x842c… $48 on Los Angeles Chargers. Spread: Los Angeles Chargers (1 wallet, $54) vs Baltimore Ravens (1 wallet, $27). Largest: Gracious-Junk $54 on Los Angeles Chargers, Hateful-Chord $27 on Baltimore Ravens.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens stats (this season)
| Stat | Los Angeles Chargers | Baltimore Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-8 | 4-5 |
| Points per game | 15.1 (32nd of 32) | 21.0 (22nd of 32) |
| Points allowed per game | 27.4 (28th of 32) | 26.2 (25th of 32) |
| Offensive EPA per play | -0.24 (32nd of 32) | -0.02 (17th of 32) |
| Defensive EPA per play allowed | 0.00 (17th of 32) | 0.01 (19th of 32) |
| Yards per play | 4.7 (30th of 32) | 5.6 (11th of 32) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.8 (26th of 32) | 5.4 (17th of 32) |
| Passing yards per game | 201.9 (24th of 32) | 204.7 (23rd of 32) |
| Rushing yards per game | 114.5 (16th of 32) | 137.8 (4th of 32) |
| 3rd-down conversion % | 34.2% (28th of 32) | 37.8% (17th of 32) |
| Red-zone TD % | 47.4% (29th of 32) | 59.3% (16th of 32) |
| Sack rate allowed | 10.5% (31st of 32) | 8.0% (24th of 32) |
| Turnover margin per game | -0.9 (30th of 32) | -0.1 (20th of 32) |
Trends for this game
Los Angeles Chargers
- Road underdogs: all teams 2402-2239 ATS (51.8%); LAC 80-54. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 23).
- Off a 14+ point loss: all teams 1155-1149 ATS (50.1%); LAC 23-27. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 2, betting against).
- Three straight ATS losses: all teams 651-613 ATS (51.5%); LAC 18-21. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 2, betting against).
- Teams under .300 after week 8: all teams 738-695 ATS (51.5%). No edge at -110.
Baltimore Ravens
- Three straight ATS losses: all teams 651-613 ATS (51.5%); BAL 20-14. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 4).
- Home favorites: all teams 2239-2402 ATS (48.2%); BAL 96-89. No edge at -110.
- Off a 14+ point loss: all teams 1155-1149 ATS (50.1%); BAL 20-20. No edge at -110.
- Three or more extra days of rest: all teams 723-693 ATS (51.1%). No edge at -110.
- Teams with a new starting QB: all teams 663-704 ATS (48.5%). No edge at -110.
Key players
- Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers): Has thrown 11 interceptions and absorbed 31 sacks in eight games this season.
- Ladd McConkey (Los Angeles Chargers): Leads the Chargers' listed receivers with 286 yards in six games this season but is questionable with back spasms.
- Quentin Johnston (Los Angeles Chargers): His 58-yard catch-and-run touchdown against Houston was the offense's biggest play in nearly a month; he has 260 yards this season.
- Omarion Hampton (Los Angeles Chargers): Averages 3.6 yards per carry on 102 carries this season, behind a line that struggles to create space.
- Derrick Henry (Baltimore Ravens): Has 689 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns this season, the engine of a run game that ranks 4th.
- Zay Flowers (Baltimore Ravens): Leads Baltimore with 614 receiving yards this season and becomes Brissett's primary target.
- Justice Hill (Baltimore Ravens): Averages 7.3 yards per carry this season and has 20 catches out of the backfield.
- Mark Andrews (Baltimore Ravens): Has 31 catches on 43 targets this season, a reliable short-area option for a new quarterback.
Numbers that matter
| Chargers sack rate allowed | 10.5% | Ranks 31st of 32, and Herbert was sacked eight times in the last game alone. |
|---|---|---|
| Chargers giveaways per game | 2.2 | Last in the league, the biggest reason the offense ranks 32nd in scoring. |
| Ravens rushing yards per game | 137.8 | Ranks 4th and should carry more weight with Brissett making his first Baltimore start. |
| Ravens spread | -5 | Slipped slightly from the -5.25 first recorded, moving toward the Chargers. |
| Chargers against the spread | 0-7-1 | Los Angeles has not covered a game this season, and six of its eight games went under. |
Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens: quick answers
Who is favored in Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens?
Baltimore Ravens is favored by 4.5 points (Baltimore Ravens -4.5).
What is the over/under for Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens?
The total is 38.5 points.
When is Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens?
Monday, November 16, 2026 at 8:15 PM ET.
Where is Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens played?
M&T Bank Stadium.
Has the line moved for Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens?
Yes: Los Angeles Chargers opened +3.5 and is now +4, and the total is still 38.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Los Angeles Chargers: 54% of bets, 46% of the money; Baltimore Ravens: 47% of bets, 54% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Baltimore Ravens -4.5: 60% of bets, 52% of the money; Los Angeles Chargers +4.5: 40% of bets, 48% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 38.5: 58% of bets, 79% of the money; Under 38.5: 42% of bets, 21% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: Los Angeles Chargers (2 wallets, $362) vs Baltimore Ravens (1 wallet, $1,237). Largest: Official-Arrogance $1,237 on Baltimore Ravens, Open-Fingernail-Bullet $314 on Los Angeles Chargers, 0x842c… $48 on Los Angeles Chargers. Spread: Los Angeles Chargers (1 wallet, $54) vs Baltimore Ravens (1 wallet, $27). Largest: Gracious-Junk $54 on Los Angeles Chargers, Hateful-Chord $27 on Baltimore Ravens. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.