Chicago Bears vs Seattle Seahawks prediction: Without Charles Cross, Sam Darnold faces a rebuilt Bears pass rush
Chicago adds Jeffery Simmons and gets Montez Sweat back just as Seattle loses its left tackle, putting Darnold's interception problem under Monday night lights.
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -3.25 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 46.5 |
Seattle Seahawks win 61% of the simulated games, Chicago Bears 39%. Median score: Chicago Bears 21, Seattle Seahawks 24. Watch the most typical game, play by play.
- Expect a grinding game: Seattle's elite defense against Chicago's run-heavy volume, with turnovers and a few explosive plays deciding it.
- Chicago's pass rush, sacking quarterbacks on 8.5% of dropbacks (2nd), against a Seattle line without left tackle Charles Cross.
- Seattle -3 and a 46.5 total haven't moved since Oct. 27; Chicago is 5-2 against the spread this season.
Darnold's protection problem
Seattle's defense held Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to a field goal in a 20-3 win last time out. The harder question Monday night sits on the other side of the ball. Left tackle Charles Cross has been ruled out with an ankle sprain, and the Bears arrive with a pass rush that just got deeper.
Chicago already sacks quarterbacks on 8.5% of dropbacks (sack rate: sacks per dropback), 2nd in the NFL. Montez Sweat returns from a two-game suspension. Jeffery Simmons, acquired from Tennessee on Thursday for two first-round picks, is expected to make his Bears debut. Seattle allows sacks at a 6.5% rate, 19th, and that was with Cross.
The pressure lands on Sam Darnold, who has thrown 8 interceptions this season. Seattle ranks 29th in giveaways per game. Help could come inside: All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson, acquired from Indianapolis, was a full participant on Seattle's Oct. 29 report, though the team hasn't said whether he starts. Guard Anthony Bradford is questionable with a knee injury.
Seattle's best shot is downfield
Chicago's defense is a strange split. Opponents convert third downs against it 26.1% of the time, the best mark in the league. Yet it gives up 6.3 yards per play, last in the NFL, and ranks 30th in explosive plays allowed (runs of 10+ yards, passes of 20+). The Bears get off the field, unless someone gets behind them.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the player to do it. He has 867 receiving yards this season. He is averaging 123.9 yards a game, and with Rashid Shaheed out with a knee injury, the targets have fewer places to go. He appeared on Seattle's injury list with a rest designation Nov. 1.
Chicago's corners are not at full strength. Malik Muhammad II is questionable with a toe injury after limited practices Thursday through Saturday, and linebacker D'Marco Jackson is questionable with an ankle injury.
Chicago's run game hits a wall
The Bears run more offensive plays than anyone, and their 154.3 rushing yards per game rank 2nd. That volume runs into a Seattle defense allowing -0.18 EPA per designed run (expected points added: how much each snap moves an offense toward points), 3rd in the league.
Kyle Monangai is out with a thumb injury, so D'Andre Swift carries the load with Roschon Johnson behind him. Swift has 7 rushing touchdowns but only 4.1 yards per carry.
The counterweight is Caleb Williams, healthy again after a hamstring absence. He is averaging 8.2 yards per attempt this season and has topped 300 passing yards in consecutive games for the first time in his career. Tyson Bagent's interceptions in relief explain part of Chicago's 25th-ranked giveaway rate.
Seattle's own ground game ranks 30th in EPA per designed run, which makes Zach Charbonnet's expected season debut worth watching. He still must be activated from injured reserve before kickoff.
A rested underdog, a flat line
Chicago had 11 days to prepare after beating New England on a Thursday night; Seattle had 8. The kickoff forecast at Lumen Field calls for about 50 degrees with almost no wind, so weather shouldn't shape the script.
Seattle is a 3-point favorite, and the total of 46.5 hasn't budged since Oct. 27. The Bears are 5-2 against the spread this season. Seattle is 2-3-2, and it was favored in every one of its last five games. A home favorite with a top-three defense and a banged-up offensive line, against an underdog that covers and a reinforced pass rush, is a line the market has found no reason to move.
Chicago Bears vs Seattle Seahawks line movement and odds
| Book | Bears ML | Seahawks ML | Bears spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +160 | -200 | +3.5 (-115) | o46.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +145 | -177 | +3 (-104) | o46.5 (-109) |
| DraftKings | +140 | -166 | +3 (+100) | o46.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | +145 | -170 | +3 (+100) | o46.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +150 | -180 | +3.5 (-120) | o46 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +152 | -180 | +3.5 (-122) | o46.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +150 | -175 | +3.5 (-120) | o46.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Chicago Bears vs Seattle Seahawks
On the Kalshi moneyline: Chicago Bears: 63% of bets, 50% of the money; Seattle Seahawks: 37% of bets, 50% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Seattle Seahawks -3.5: 44% of bets, 35% of the money; Chicago Bears +3.5: 56% of bets, 65% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 46.5: 58% of bets, 70% of the money; Under 46.5: 42% of bets, 30% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: Chicago Bears (2 wallets, $38,760) vs Seattle Seahawks (9 wallets, $277,575). Largest: Esteemed-Cloves $247,803 on Seattle Seahawks, Belated-Realm $38,000 on Chicago Bears, Same-Kidney $25,200 on Seattle Seahawks. Spread: Chicago Bears (9 wallets, $2,698) vs Seattle Seahawks (10 wallets, $157,408). Largest: Dual-Criticism $114,900 on Seattle Seahawks, Esteemed-Cloves $39,900 on Seattle Seahawks, Belated-Realm $1,501 on Chicago Bears. Total: over (3 wallets, $775) vs under (2 wallets, $20,510). Largest: Automatic-Kind $20,000 on under, 0x1821… $556 on over, Muffled-Ironclad $510 on under.
Chicago Bears vs Seattle Seahawks stats (this season)
| Stat | Chicago Bears | Seattle Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-2 | 4-3 |
| Points per game | 25.7 (8th of 32) | 24.0 (11th of 32) |
| Points allowed per game | 20.4 (9th of 32) | 17.9 (3rd of 32) |
| Offensive EPA per play | 0.05 (10th of 32) | -0.04 (23rd of 32) |
| Defensive EPA per play allowed | -0.01 (15th of 32) | -0.13 (3rd of 32) |
| Yards per play | 5.5 (15th of 32) | 5.4 (17th of 32) |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.3 (32nd of 32) | 4.1 (1st of 32) |
| Passing yards per game | 254.9 (11th of 32) | 246.6 (14th of 32) |
| Rushing yards per game | 154.3 (2nd of 32) | 113.7 (18th of 32) |
| 3rd-down conversion % | 44.0% (6th of 32) | 38.9% (16th of 32) |
| Red-zone TD % | 53.3% (21st of 32) | 50.0% (26th of 32) |
| Sack rate allowed | 6.5% (20th of 32) | 6.5% (19th of 32) |
| Turnover margin per game | -0.6 (28th of 32) | -0.4 (23rd of 32) |
Key players
- Caleb Williams (Chicago Bears): In four games this season he has completed 71.0% of his passes at 8.2 yards per attempt, but he has taken 12 sacks.
- D'Andre Swift (Chicago Bears): With Monangai out, Swift leads the backfield after 476 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns this season.
- Luther Burden III (Chicago Bears): Chicago's leading receiver this season with 35 catches for 491 yards.
- Colston Loveland (Chicago Bears): Now the primary receiving tight end with Cole Kmet on injured reserve, he has 26 catches and 2 touchdowns this season.
- Sam Darnold (Seattle Seahawks): He has 8 touchdowns against 8 interceptions this season and has been sacked 14 times.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seattle Seahawks): Seattle's engine this season with 867 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns on 78 targets.
- Emanuel Wilson (Seattle Seahawks): He has 403 rushing yards this season but only 3.6 yards per carry.
Numbers that matter
| Bears defensive sack rate | 8.5% | 2nd in the NFL before adding Simmons and getting Sweat back, against a Seattle line without Cross. |
|---|---|---|
| Seahawks yards per play allowed | 4.1 | Best in the league, the wall Chicago's 2nd-ranked rushing attack has to get through. |
| Bears explosive plays allowed | 10.3% | 30th in the NFL, the opening Smith-Njigba is built to exploit. |
| Bears rushing yards per game | 154.3 | 2nd in the NFL, though Monangai is out and Swift averages 4.1 yards per carry. |
| Seattle spread | -3 | Unchanged since Oct. 27, with Chicago 5-2 against the spread this season. |
Chicago Bears vs Seattle Seahawks: quick answers
Who is favored in Chicago Bears vs Seattle Seahawks?
Seattle Seahawks is favored by 3.25 points (Seattle Seahawks -3.25).
What is the over/under for Chicago Bears vs Seattle Seahawks?
The total is 46.5 points.
When is Chicago Bears vs Seattle Seahawks?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 8:20 PM ET.
Where is Chicago Bears vs Seattle Seahawks played?
Lumen Field.
Has the line moved for Chicago Bears vs Seattle Seahawks?
Yes: Chicago Bears opened +3 and is now +3.5, and the total is still 46.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Chicago Bears vs Seattle Seahawks?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Chicago Bears: 63% of bets, 50% of the money; Seattle Seahawks: 37% of bets, 50% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Seattle Seahawks -3.5: 44% of bets, 35% of the money; Chicago Bears +3.5: 56% of bets, 65% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 46.5: 58% of bets, 70% of the money; Under 46.5: 42% of bets, 30% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Chicago Bears vs Seattle Seahawks?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: Chicago Bears (2 wallets, $38,760) vs Seattle Seahawks (9 wallets, $277,575). Largest: Esteemed-Cloves $247,803 on Seattle Seahawks, Belated-Realm $38,000 on Chicago Bears, Same-Kidney $25,200 on Seattle Seahawks. Spread: Chicago Bears (9 wallets, $2,698) vs Seattle Seahawks (10 wallets, $157,408). Largest: Dual-Criticism $114,900 on Seattle Seahawks, Esteemed-Cloves $39,900 on Seattle Seahawks, Belated-Realm $1,501 on Chicago Bears. Total: over (3 wallets, $775) vs under (2 wallets, $20,510). Largest: Automatic-Kind $20,000 on under, 0x1821… $556 on over, Muffled-Ironclad $510 on under. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.