Troy Trojans vs James Madison Dukes prediction: Troy needs Crowder's sore shoulder to test James Madison's soft secondary

The door Troy can't open

James Madison's defense has one clear soft spot, and Troy is poorly built to find it. The Dukes allow 242.5 passing yards per game, 112th of 138, yet rank 17th in rushing EPA allowed (expected points added per play, where lower is better for a defense). The cracks are in the secondary.

Troy's passing game was weak before Crowder hurt his shoulder against Louisiana. The Trojans rank 125th in passing EPA. Crowder threw for 65 yards against Louisiana. A week later he managed 50 against UL Monroe, with an interception. He is listed as probable for Thursday, the same tag he carried into that ULM loss.

Protection compounds the problem. Troy ranks 117th in havoc allowed, the share of plays that end in a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup. JMU averages 2.62 sacks per game, 23rd nationally. If Crowder can't push the ball downfield, Troy falls back on a run game that ranks 28th in rushing yards. That pits its best unit against the best part of JMU's defense. Jordan Lovett has been the bright spot, with 262 yards on 39 carries over the last three games.

Life after Pettaway

JMU will play without George Pettaway, who is out with a lower-body injury from the App State game. His absence leaves a hole: 824 rushing yards at 6.6 per carry and eight touchdowns. Nick Herman and Seth Cromwell are next in line. Herman has been efficient in a small role, at 6.7 yards per carry, but he has only eight carries over the last three games.

The structure around the backs should hold. JMU ranks 31st in line yards per carry, a measure of how much push the offensive line creates on runs. The Dukes rank ninth in havoc allowed, so negative plays are rare. Troy's front is middling, 72nd in stuff rate (the share of runs stopped at or behind the line). Camden Coleman also gives JMU a reliable second option. He has thrown 14 touchdowns against two interceptions.

Two teams off sour weeks

Both sides arrive stung. JMU blew its unbeaten season at Appalachian State, losing 34-31 in overtime as a 13-point favorite. The loss badly damaged the Dukes' College Football Playoff hopes. Troy lost 21-14 at home to UL Monroe as a 13.5-point favorite, meaning ULM won by that score. ULM scored 18 points inside the final three minutes for its first win of the season.

The schedule favors the home team. Troy gets five days of rest before a Thursday road game, while JMU gets seven at home. The one caution for the Dukes is recent defensive form. Over the last three games they have allowed a 45.6% success rate (the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule), and opponents have averaged 26.7 points. Troy's own defense showed life against ULM, posting eight tackles for loss and holding the Warhawks to 243 total yards.

Hidden yards tilt hard

Field position is a quiet mismatch. JMU's average drive starts at its own 33.8-yard line, fifth nationally, and Troy's starts at 26.6, 122nd. JMU's kick return average of 35.4 ranks fourth, which can turn a Troy score straight back into good field position for the Dukes. Troy also has trouble finishing drives with its kicker, making 7 of 13 field goals this season. Against a team scoring 41.4 points per game, empty trips add up fast.

Where the number sits

James Madison opened as an 18-point favorite and hasn't moved across 12 books, with the total at 51.5. The Dukes are 6-2 against the spread and Troy is 2-5, though both failed to cover as big favorites last week. These teams also met in last December's Sun Belt title game here, a 31-14 JMU win.

Our model makes JMU a 19.2-point favorite and projects a 35.4-16.1 final, so it agrees with the market's 51.5 total. Our tested data shows that favorites who cover tend to clear their rushing lines. JMU's ability to run without Pettaway is the key to that script.