Sacramento State vs Central Michigan Chippewas prediction: Central Michigan Should Lean on the Run Against Sacramento State's Soft Front
With both teams missing key starters, the Chippewas' run blocking against a Hornets defense that rarely wins at the line is the clearest edge in this Wednesday night MAC game.
Central Michigan Chippewas covered the closing spread (Sacramento State +17.5). The game went under the closing total of 41.5.
| Spread | Central Michigan -15.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 44 |
- Central Michigan should control this on the ground, while Sacramento State's offense, 137th in yards per play, struggles to keep pace.
- CMU's blockers, 29th in line yards per carry, against a Hornets front that ranks 128th in stuff rate.
- Our model makes Central Michigan a 16.6-point favorite, about a point more than the market, with a total of 44.1.
Where the Chippewas Win It
Wednesday night in Mount Pleasant is Central Michigan's home finale, on Veterans Day, against a first-year MAC member it has never played. The Chippewas have lost starters across the roster. They still have the piece that matters most here: an offensive line that moves people.
Central Michigan runs for 176.6 yards per game, 41st among 138 FBS teams. It ranks 37th in rushing EPA (expected points added per play). The blocking is why. CMU averages 3.27 line yards per carry, a measure of the push the front creates, and that ranks 29th.
Sacramento State is badly built to stop it. The Hornets allow 3.22 line yards per carry, 121st nationally. Their stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line, is 14.2%, 128th. Our projection has CMU running for 215 yards.
The Chippewas will run without Angel Flores, who is out for the season after ankle surgery. He had 618 rushing yards in our data. Nick Woodford filled the gap in the rout of Eastern Michigan with three touchdowns. Jayden Clerveaux adds 4.9 yards per carry. This is a game where the run fits the spread: in our tests, a favorite's rushing went over its line 33.9% of the time when that favorite covered.
Where the money is on Sacramento State vs Central Michigan Chippewas
On the Kalshi moneyline: Sacramento State: 58% of bets, 10% of the money; Central Michigan Chippewas: 42% of bets, 90% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Central Michigan Chippewas -16.5: 82% of bets, 99% of the money; Sacramento State +16.5: 18% of bets, 1% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 43.5: 33% of bets, 21% of the money; Under 43.5: 67% of bets, 79% of the money.
Sacramento State vs Central Michigan Chippewas stats (this season)
| Stat | Sacramento State | Central Michigan Chippewas |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-9 | 5-5 |
| Points per game | 16.1 (136th of 138) | 20.6 (118th of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 29.2 (107th of 138) | 22.1 (49th of 138) |
| Yards per play | 4.48 (137th of 138) | 5.05 (123rd of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.77 (94th of 138) | 5.39 (60th of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 182.8 (116th of 138) | 126.6 (134th of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 98.5 (133rd of 138) | 190.8 (30th of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 32.2% (125th of 138) | 40.3% (68th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 1.55 (110th of 138) | 1.20 (60th of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 1.09 (91st of 138) | 1.60 (25th of 138) |
| EPA per play | -0.093 (136th of 138) | 0.093 (87th of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.092 (76th of 138) | 0.109 (87th of 138) |
Sacramento State vs Central Michigan Chippewas: quick answers
What was the final score of Sacramento State vs Central Michigan Chippewas?
Sacramento State 7, Central Michigan Chippewas 28 (final). Central Michigan Chippewas covered the closing spread (Sacramento State +17.5). The game went under the closing total of 41.5.
Who is favored in Sacramento State vs Central Michigan Chippewas?
Central Michigan is favored by 15.5 points (Central Michigan -15.5).
What is the over/under for Sacramento State vs Central Michigan Chippewas?
The total is 44 points.
When is Sacramento State vs Central Michigan Chippewas?
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET.
Where is Sacramento State vs Central Michigan Chippewas played?
Kelly/Shorts Stadium.
Where is the money on Sacramento State vs Central Michigan Chippewas?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Sacramento State: 58% of bets, 10% of the money; Central Michigan Chippewas: 42% of bets, 90% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Central Michigan Chippewas -16.5: 82% of bets, 99% of the money; Sacramento State +16.5: 18% of bets, 1% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 43.5: 33% of bets, 21% of the money; Under 43.5: 67% of bets, 79% of the money.