Buffalo Bulls vs Ball State Cardinals prediction: Jason Wright's erratic arm draws Ball State's softest target in Muncie
Buffalo's offense moves the ball less reliably than almost anyone in the country, but Wednesday it faces a pass defense that ranks among the worst in FBS.
Buffalo Bulls covered the closing spread (Buffalo Bulls -1.5). The game went under the closing total of 53.5.
| Spread | Buffalo -3 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 50.8 |
- A close, midweek MAC grinder: Buffalo leans on Messiah Burch, Ball State's improved offense keeps pace, and the kicking game may settle it.
- Jason Wright against a Ball State pass defense ranked 134th in passing EPA allowed. Wright's accuracy decides whether Buffalo pulls away.
- Our model makes Ball State a 2.8-point home underdog with a fair total of 51.13, almost exactly where the market sits.
A flimsy offense, a soft target
Buffalo arrives at 6-3 and 4-1 in the MAC, chasing a fifth straight win, with an offense that rarely stays on schedule. Its success rate (the share of plays that keep an offense ahead of the chains) is 36.0%, 133rd of 138. Its 4.69 yards per play also rank 133rd.
The Bulls have won anyway, and Wednesday's opponent explains why the number could hold. Ball State allows 0.26 EPA per play (expected points added per play), 134th nationally. Against the pass it is worse: 0.405 passing EPA allowed, also 134th. When opponents reach scoring range, they cash in at 4.53 points per opportunity, 135th.
That sets up the central question for Wright. He has completed just 49.4% of his passes this season. His last outing showed the ceiling: 358 passing yards and four total touchdowns in an overtime win at Miami (OH), with Chance Morrow catching 12 balls for 199 yards. It also took him 46 attempts. If Wright finds even average accuracy against this secondary, Buffalo should move the ball more freely than it has all year.
Burch carries the load
Buffalo's real identity runs through Messiah Burch, who has 901 rushing yards at 5.5 per carry. Over the last three games he has 412 yards, though Miami held him to 56 on 14 carries.
Ball State gives up 179.8 rushing yards per game, 115th, and ranks 121st in rushing EPA allowed. The catch is at the line of scrimmage. Buffalo's line yards per carry (how much push the blockers create) rank 114th, while Ball State stuffs runs at or behind the line on 20.5% of carries, 47th. Burch's best yardage tends to come after the first hit, not before it. If the Cardinals win early downs, Wright is left throwing on third-and-long.
Luster and a surging Cardinals offense
Ball State's offense looks nothing like its season profile lately. Over its last three games it posted 0.208 EPA per play and a 46.0% success rate, well above a season success rate that ranks 110th. The schedule helped: Bowling Green, Sacramento State and UMass.
Keldric Luster drives it with his legs. He ran for 214 yards over that stretch, including 125 at Bowling Green. Jalen Bonds added 132 yards and two scores in the overtime loss at UMass, and TJ Horton has nine rushing touchdowns this season.
Buffalo's defense is opportunistic rather than stout. Its havoc rate (share of plays with a tackle for loss, sack, takeaway or pass breakup) is 16.6%, 48th. Will Clark has all 3.5 of his sacks in the last three games, and Sedrick Vessah has 2.5 in that span. But the Bulls allow 3.16 line yards per carry, 113th, so Ball State's run-first, slow approach has room to work and shorten possessions.
Where hidden yards hide
Ball State keeps beating itself. It averages 73.3 penalty yards per game, 127th, while Buffalo sits 42nd. The kicking is shaky too: the Cardinals have made 6/9 field goals and rank 130th in extra-point percentage. Kicker Boehm missed late in the overtime loss at UMass, and Uremovich said he has full confidence in him and would use him again.
The Cardinals do own one edge. They average 17.5 yards per punt return, 11th, against a Buffalo unit that ranks 97th in punt return yardage allowed. Buffalo, meanwhile, turns it over 1.56 times per game, 109th, while Ball State ranks 36th. In a game priced this tight, one short field could swing it.
Lembo's homecoming and the number
Pete Lembo coached Ball State from 2011–15 and returns to Muncie for the first time as Buffalo's head coach, on ESPN2. Buffalo is chasing only its second win ever at Ball State.
The line opened at Ball State +2.5 and has moved to +3 with Buffalo, with the total at 50.8. Ball State is 6-3 against the spread and has covered each of its last four lined games. Buffalo sits at 4-4-1, but has covered three of its last four. Both teams arrive off overtime finishes, which fits a matchup this even.
Where the money is on Buffalo Bulls vs Ball State Cardinals
On the Kalshi moneyline: Buffalo Bulls: 79% of bets, 89% of the money; Ball State Cardinals: 21% of bets, 11% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Buffalo Bulls -2.5: 50% of bets, 40% of the money; Ball State Cardinals +2.5: 50% of bets, 60% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 50.5: 95% of bets, 98% of the money; Under 50.5: 5% of bets, 2% of the money.
Buffalo Bulls vs Ball State Cardinals stats (this season)
| Stat | Buffalo Bulls | Ball State Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-3 | 3-7 |
| Points per game | 24.3 (96th of 138) | 21.3 (112th of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 24.1 (66th of 138) | 34.1 (129th of 138) |
| Yards per play | 4.74 (132nd of 138) | 5.19 (113th of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.53 (76th of 138) | 6.38 (126th of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 164.6 (129th of 138) | 188.8 (110th of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 181.1 (40th of 138) | 148.7 (76th of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 38.9% (85th of 138) | 34.6% (114th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 1.40 (92nd of 138) | 0.90 (35th of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 0.90 (109th of 138) | 0.80 (123rd of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.046 (110th of 138) | 0.078 (96th of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.079 (67th of 138) | 0.239 (129th of 138) |
Key players
- Jason Wright (Buffalo): Completing 49.4% of his passes this season, but threw for 358 yards in his last game at Miami (OH).
- Messiah Burch (Buffalo): The offense's engine with 901 rushing yards at 5.5 yards per carry.
- Chance Morrow (Buffalo): Leads the Bulls with 682 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns.
- Will Clark (Buffalo): All 3.5 of his sacks have come in the last three games.
- Keldric Luster (Ball State): Has run for 214 yards over the last three games while completing 63.0% of his passes this season.
- Jalen Bonds (Ball State): Ran for 132 yards and two touchdowns in the overtime loss at UMass.
- TJ Horton (Ball State): Leads the Cardinals with 9 rushing touchdowns.
- Ben Marsh (Ball State): Has 2.5 of his 3.0 sacks in the last three games.
Numbers that matter
| Ball State passing EPA allowed | 134th | At 0.405 per dropback, the Cardinals' pass defense is among the worst in FBS, a gift for an inaccurate Wright. |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo success rate | 36.0% | Ranked 133rd, the Bulls struggle to stay on schedule, which puts pressure on Burch and explosive plays. |
| Ball State last-3 offensive EPA | 0.208 | The Cardinals' offense has surged lately, though against weak opponents. |
| Ball State penalty yards per game | 73.3 | Ranked 127th, Ball State's self-inflicted yardage could decide a game priced at a field goal. |
| Market spread | +3 | Ball State moved from +2.5 to +3, toward Buffalo. |
Buffalo Bulls vs Ball State Cardinals: quick answers
What was the final score of Buffalo Bulls vs Ball State Cardinals?
Buffalo Bulls 28, Ball State Cardinals 7 (final). Buffalo Bulls covered the closing spread (Buffalo Bulls -1.5). The game went under the closing total of 53.5.
Who is favored in Buffalo Bulls vs Ball State Cardinals?
Buffalo is favored by 3 points (Buffalo -3).
What is the over/under for Buffalo Bulls vs Ball State Cardinals?
The total is 50.8 points.
When is Buffalo Bulls vs Ball State Cardinals?
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET.
Where is Buffalo Bulls vs Ball State Cardinals played?
Scheumann Stadium.
Where is the money on Buffalo Bulls vs Ball State Cardinals?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Buffalo Bulls: 79% of bets, 89% of the money; Ball State Cardinals: 21% of bets, 11% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Buffalo Bulls -2.5: 50% of bets, 40% of the money; Ball State Cardinals +2.5: 50% of bets, 60% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 50.5: 95% of bets, 98% of the money; Under 50.5: 5% of bets, 2% of the money.