Memphis Tigers vs South Florida Bulls prediction: Marcus Stokes must throw over a USF defense that stops the run
South Florida takes the ground game away, so Memphis's path to covering on the road runs through its quarterback's arm and his protection against a busy Bulls pass rush.
| Spread | Memphis -7.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 49.5 |
- Memphis likely moves the ball through the air while USF leans on D.J. Crowther and a patient run game to keep it within reach.
- Watch Marcus Stokes against USF's pass rush, which ranks 10th nationally in tackles for loss per game.
- Our model has Memphis by 7.7, right on the market's 7.5. Its 49.1 total sits just under the posted 49.5.
Stokes against the blitz
South Florida built its defense to take the ground game away, and it works. The Bulls rank 18th nationally in rushing EPA allowed (expected points added per play, a measure of how much each snap moves the scoreboard). Their stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line, sits at 23.4%.
That's a real obstacle for a Memphis offense that leans on its blockers, whose line yards per carry rank 8th in FBS. So this game likely runs through Marcus Stokes. Memphis ranks 10th in passing EPA per play, while USF's pass defense sits 56th by the same measure. Stokes arrives off his best game of the year, 371 yards and four touchdowns against Army.
USF's answer is pressure. The Bulls live in the backfield, and C.J. Hicks had four sacks against UAB alone. Memphis protects well, allowing havoc (tackles for loss, sacks, fumbles forced, picks and breakups) on 12.7% of plays. Whichever side wins that exchange probably decides whether Memphis gets margin.
Kromenhoek's narrow path
Luke Kromenhoek is expected to start again after taking over from Michael Van Buren Jr., who left an earlier game with an injury Hartline has not described. There has been no update on Van Buren. Kromenhoek completed 17 of 21 passes in last week's loss at East Carolina.
The Bulls need him efficient, because they rarely hit big plays. USF ranks 134th in explosiveness, which measures how much value an offense gets from its successful plays. Its passing game sits 126th in yards per game.
The opening is on the ground. Memphis allows 187.9 rushing yards per game, 122nd nationally, and gives up chunk plays when runs break through. Crowther ran for 111 yards at East Carolina, and the Bulls can lean on him on early downs.
Rest, stakes and Huff's stock
The calendar favors Memphis. The Tigers last played Oct. 31 and arrive with 12 days of rest, while USF turns around on a short week after its Thursday walk-off loss at East Carolina.
Memphis is 7-2 and still chasing a spot in the American title game, but the Tulane loss removed its margin for error. That game doubles as the warning: Stokes threw three interceptions in a 31-17 defeat. Charles Huff has been linked to openings at Maryland, NC State and Baylor, though he said he hasn't been contacted and that jobs typically open after the season.
USF is already bowl eligible. It has also lost each of the last five meetings, including a 34-31 defeat last October, when Brendon Lewis threw the winning touchdown in the final two minutes.
Hidden yards favor the Bulls
If USF pulls an upset, it probably starts here. The Bulls give the ball away just 0.44 times per game, fourth-fewest in FBS. That sets up a direct test against a Memphis defense that forces 2.0 takeaways per game, 5th nationally.
Field position tilts the other way. Memphis starts its drives at its own 26.8 on average, 119th in FBS, and USF's punter helps keep it that way with a net average of 43.8 yards. A Memphis offense this efficient can still score from long distances, but every lost yard narrows a 7.5-point cushion.
Where the number lands
Memphis opened as a 7.5-point favorite and hasn't moved, with the total at 49.5. Our model lands in the same spot, making Memphis a 7.7-point favorite and giving USF a 31.0% chance to win at home. For the first half, our number has Memphis by 3.3 with a total of 25.4.
Where the money is on Memphis Tigers vs South Florida Bulls
On the Kalshi moneyline: Memphis Tigers: 57% of bets, 60% of the money; South Florida Bulls: 43% of bets, 40% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Memphis Tigers -7.5: 25% of bets, 7% of the money; South Florida Bulls +7.5: 75% of bets, 93% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 49.5: 58% of bets, 48% of the money; Under 49.5: 42% of bets, 52% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Total: under (1 wallet, $4,682). Largest: Normal-High-Soy $4,682 on under.
Memphis Tigers vs South Florida Bulls stats (this season)
| Stat | Memphis Tigers | South Florida Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-2 | 6-3 |
| Points per game | 37.6 (14th of 138) | 25.9 (87th of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 23.6 (61st of 138) | 15.1 (10th of 138) |
| Yards per play | 7.21 (7th of 138) | 5.37 (104th of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.86 (101st of 138) | 4.84 (25th of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 290.6 (13th of 138) | 168.0 (125th of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 223.4 (9th of 138) | 148.2 (78th of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 46.4% (22nd of 138) | 37.3% (95th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 1.44 (93rd of 138) | 0.44 (4th of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 2.00 (5th of 138) | 1.11 (72nd of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.231 (24th of 138) | 0.120 (75th of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.077 (65th of 138) | 0.015 (35th of 138) |
Key players
- Marcus Stokes (Memphis): He has thrown 25 touchdowns at 9.8 yards per attempt and posted 371 yards against Army.
- Jaylin Carter (Memphis): He has 929 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns but faces a USF front that ranks 18th against the run.
- Braylon Burnside (Memphis): He has 263 receiving yards over the last three games, including 151 at Tulane.
- Elijah Kinsler (Memphis): His 5.5 sacks lead the Memphis pass rush.
- Luke Kromenhoek (South Florida): He completed 17 of 21 passes in his start at East Carolina.
- D.J. Crowther (South Florida): He ran for 111 yards at East Carolina and has 689 on the season.
- C.J. Hicks (South Florida): He has 5.0 sacks in seven games, four of them against UAB.
- Michael Williams II (South Florida): He has 6.5 tackles for loss and 4.0 sacks.
Numbers that matter
| USF rushing EPA allowed rank | 18th | The Bulls take away the run, which pushes Memphis toward its passing game. |
|---|---|---|
| Memphis passing EPA per play | 0.458 | It ranks 10th nationally and is the Tigers' clearest edge in this matchup. |
| Memphis rushing yards allowed per game | 187.9 | It ranks 122nd, the opening for Crowther and Kromenhoek. |
| Memphis rest days | 12 | Memphis is coming off a bye while USF plays on a short week. |
| USF turnovers per game | 0.44 | It ranks 4th in FBS against a Memphis defense that ranks 5th in takeaways. |
Memphis Tigers vs South Florida Bulls: quick answers
Who is favored in Memphis Tigers vs South Florida Bulls?
Memphis is favored by 7.5 points (Memphis -7.5).
What is the over/under for Memphis Tigers vs South Florida Bulls?
The total is 49.5 points.
When is Memphis Tigers vs South Florida Bulls?
Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.
Where is Memphis Tigers vs South Florida Bulls played?
Raymond James Stadium.
Where is the money on Memphis Tigers vs South Florida Bulls?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Memphis Tigers: 57% of bets, 60% of the money; South Florida Bulls: 43% of bets, 40% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Memphis Tigers -7.5: 25% of bets, 7% of the money; South Florida Bulls +7.5: 75% of bets, 93% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 49.5: 58% of bets, 48% of the money; Under 49.5: 42% of bets, 52% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Memphis Tigers vs South Florida Bulls?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Total: under (1 wallet, $4,682). Largest: Normal-High-Soy $4,682 on under. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.