Louisiana Ragin Cajuns vs UL Monroe prediction: Louisiana's run game has a wide-open lane at Malone Stadium
The Ragin' Cajuns run as well as anyone in the Sun Belt, and UL Monroe's front almost never stops a runner in the backfield. The question at 12 points is whether Louisiana finishes.
| Spread | Louisiana -12 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 48.5 |
- Louisiana leans on the ground, ULM hangs around early on its improved recent defense, and the Cajuns pull away if their drives end in touchdowns.
- JJ Garner and D'Wayne Winfield against a ULM front that ranks 133rd in stuff rate.
- Our model makes Louisiana a 12.8-point favorite against a market line of 12, with a fair total of 48.5, the same as the market.
A ground game with a runway
Louisiana's whole identity runs through the offensive line. The Cajuns average 202.9 rushing yards per game, 23rd in the FBS, and their line yards per carry (credit to the blockers for the first few yards of each run) sit at 3.32, 22nd of 138. Rushing EPA (expected points added per play) tells the same story: 0.188, 24th nationally.
UL Monroe is about the worst possible opponent for that. The Warhawks allow 211.1 rushing yards per game, 132nd. Their stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line, is 14.0%, which ranks 133rd. Opponents also get a push up front: ULM gives up 3.18 line yards per carry, 117th.
The backfield has a clear hierarchy. JJ Garner averages 7.2 yards per carry on the season and 9.3 over the last three games, capped by 136 yards against South Alabama. Steven Blanco gets more carries but averages 3.7. Winfield is the other half of it, with 561 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns. Our projection has Louisiana running for 237 yards, and the tested link between a favorite covering and that favorite out-rushing its line fits this game better than most.
ULM's defense has stiffened lately
The season numbers say ULM's defense is among the worst in the country: 34.8 points allowed per game, 132nd, and 0.205 EPA allowed per play, 122nd. The last three games say something different. Over that stretch the Warhawks allowed 22.0 points per game and a 37.0% success rate (the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule).
That run came against Troy, Southern Miss and Arkansas State, and it produced two wins, including a 19-17 result in Jonesboro, ULM's first win there since 2001. ULM picked off two passes that night and ran for a season-high 268 yards. Kevontay Wells has been the disruptor, with 2.5 of his 4.0 sacks coming in the last three games.
The quarterback picture is murkier. Aidan Armenta is the projected starter, but Austin Carlisle, listed as a running back, entered the Arkansas State game at quarterback and converted the late first down that let ULM run out the clock. No injury reason was given. Armenta threw two interceptions in that game, and Louisiana ranks 13th in takeaways at 1.78 per game.
Louisiana's finishing problem
Louisiana moves the ball but doesn't always cash in. The Cajuns score 3.42 points per scoring opportunity, 98th nationally, and their explosiveness ranks 114th. That's a team that grinds out drives rather than breaking them open, which matters when laying double digits.
The passing game is the soft spot. Louisiana ranks 111th in passing yards per game, and Winfield has completed 56.6% of his throws over the last three games. The recent results show the cost: a 35-31 loss at Southern Miss as an 11.5-point favorite, then a 28-26 win over South Alabama as a 7-point favorite. Neither covered, and both opponents rank outside the SP+ top 115.
Hidden yards could swing things either way. Louisiana's net punting average of 35.0 ranks 133rd, but ULM averages 1.3 yards per punt return, 136th. ULM's own coverage is worse, allowing 25.4 yards per punt return, and its kicker has made 8 of 12 field goals.
What the matchup asks of ULM
ULM's offense ranks 126th in EPA per play and 123rd in points per scoring opportunity. Louisiana's defense allows -0.081 rushing EPA per play, 19th nationally, so the Warhawks' run-first plan meets real resistance. Marcellus Jackson is the go-to receiver with 35 catches, and Armenta's 61.9% completion rate leaves little margin.
Louisiana won 30-27 last season and 37-23 on its last trip to Monroe. Both teams come in on 5 days of rest for the Thursday kickoff.
Our number and the market
The line opened at Louisiana -12 and hasn't moved across 17 books, with a total of 48.5. Our model lands at Louisiana by 12.8, a projected 30.7 to 17.8, and gives ULM a 21.0% chance to win. The full-game edge is under a point, so this is mostly agreement. Our first-half number makes ULM a 6.87-point underdog with a fair first-half total of 25.11.
Where the money is on Louisiana Ragin Cajuns vs UL Monroe
On the Kalshi moneyline: Louisiana Ragin Cajuns: 70% of bets, 96% of the money; UL Monroe: 30% of bets, 4% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Louisiana Ragin Cajuns -11.5: 46% of bets, 81% of the money; UL Monroe +11.5: 55% of bets, 19% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 48.5: 88% of bets, 98% of the money; Under 48.5: 13% of bets, 2% of the money.
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns vs UL Monroe stats (this season)
| Stat | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns | UL Monroe |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-3 | 2-7 |
| Points per game | 29.9 (56th of 138) | 20.1 (121st of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 21.8 (44th of 138) | 34.8 (133rd of 138) |
| Yards per play | 5.84 (66th of 138) | 5.09 (122nd of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.22 (44th of 138) | 6.18 (119th of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 188.2 (111th of 138) | 199.7 (103rd of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 202.9 (23rd of 138) | 138.0 (93rd of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 43.6% (38th of 138) | 34.9% (110th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 1.33 (77th of 138) | 1.44 (93rd of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 1.78 (13th of 138) | 0.89 (113th of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.136 (66th of 138) | -0.010 (126th of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.028 (23rd of 138) | 0.205 (122nd of 138) |
Key players
- D'Wayne Winfield (Louisiana): A dual threat with 561 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns, though he has completed 56.6% of his passes over the last three games.
- JJ Garner (Louisiana): Has averaged 9.3 yards per carry over the last three games, including 136 yards against South Alabama.
- Jake St. Andre (Louisiana): Leads the defense with 68 tackles, and both of his sacks came in the last three games.
- Micah Johnson (Louisiana): Picked off a pass against South Alabama and has 2.5 tackles for loss over the last three games.
- Aidan Armenta (UL Monroe): The projected starter has thrown for 1,406 yards with 9 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, two of them at Arkansas State.
- Austin Carlisle (UL Monroe): Averages 5.6 yards per carry, ran for 111 yards at Arkansas State and also took snaps at quarterback in that game.
- Kevontay Wells (UL Monroe): ULM's top pass rusher has 4.0 sacks, with 2.5 in the last three games.
- Marcellus Jackson (UL Monroe): The leading receiver with 35 catches for 370 yards.
Numbers that matter
| ULM stuff rate | 14.0% | Ranks 133rd, so Louisiana's backs should rarely be stopped at or behind the line. |
|---|---|---|
| Louisiana line yards per carry | 3.32 | Ranks 22nd, the engine of a run game that averages 202.9 yards. |
| ULM rushing yards allowed per game | 211.1 | Ranks 132nd, the weakest spot Louisiana could ask for. |
| Louisiana points per scoring opportunity | 3.42 | Ranks 98th, and stalled drives are how a 12-point favorite fails to cover. |
| ULM success rate allowed, last 3 games | 37.0% | Much better than its season form and the main reason ULM has won two of its last three. |
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns vs UL Monroe: quick answers
Who is favored in Louisiana Ragin Cajuns vs UL Monroe?
Louisiana is favored by 12 points (Louisiana -12).
What is the over/under for Louisiana Ragin Cajuns vs UL Monroe?
The total is 48.5 points.
When is Louisiana Ragin Cajuns vs UL Monroe?
Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET.
Where is Louisiana Ragin Cajuns vs UL Monroe played?
Malone Stadium.
Where is the money on Louisiana Ragin Cajuns vs UL Monroe?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Louisiana Ragin Cajuns: 70% of bets, 96% of the money; UL Monroe: 30% of bets, 4% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Louisiana Ragin Cajuns -11.5: 46% of bets, 81% of the money; UL Monroe +11.5: 55% of bets, 19% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 48.5: 88% of bets, 98% of the money; Under 48.5: 13% of bets, 2% of the money.