Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs New Mexico State Aggies prediction: James Jones Could Drag Jacksonville State Into Another One-Score Fight

Jones against a soft front

Jacksonville State is the only 3-0 team in Conference USA, and it has gotten there by the skin of its teeth. Its last four wins came by four, ten, one and three points. The biggest threat to that run in Las Cruces is James Jones.

The New Mexico State back has 777 rushing yards at 6.5 yards per carry, and he is getting stronger. Over his last three games he has 422 yards on 6.8 a carry, capped by 178 against Sam Houston.

The Gamecocks' run defense is the weak spot he wants. Jacksonville State ranks 111th in stuff rate (the share of runs stopped at or behind the line) at 15.8%, and it gives up 156.4 rushing yards a game, 92nd nationally. Worse, opponents convert 45.8% of third downs against this defense, 127th of 138.

The saving grace is that Jacksonville State rarely gets burned deep: it ranks 13th in explosiveness allowed. New Mexico State, 24th in offensive explosiveness, may have to win with long, patient drives instead of big plays. That is exactly the kind of drive a bad third-down defense struggles to end.

Creel runs into a wall

Jacksonville State's offense runs through Caden Creel, a quarterback who hurts defenses both ways. He averages 8.5 yards per attempt and has 500 rushing yards, and the Gamecocks rank 29th in passing EPA (expected points added per play).

The Aggies' defense is built to slow the run half of that. New Mexico State ranks 21st in stuff rate and 26th in line yards allowed, a measure of how much push blockers get up front. It also ranks 29th against the pass by EPA, and it has been sharper lately, holding its last three opponents to a 32.5% success rate (the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule).

Gabe Peterson is the problem for Jacksonville State's line. He has 4.0 sacks in his last three games. The Gamecocks protect well, allowing just 1.0 sack per game (13th), so this matchup is a real tug of war.

The concern for Creel is ball security. He has thrown four interceptions over his last three games, including two against Middle Tennessee.

Who throws for the Aggies

New Mexico State hasn't named a starter. Adam Damante is projected to start and threw two touchdown passes in the win over Sam Houston. Trey Hedden, the other active option, has completed 45.2% of his passes over his last three appearances with five interceptions.

Whoever plays inherits an offense that ranks 118th in passing EPA and 129th in turnovers, giving the ball away 1.86 times a game. The good news for the Aggies is that Jacksonville State doesn't take it away often: it ranks 109th in takeaways. A clean game from Damante would go a long way.

Hidden yards favor the visitors

Special teams lean hard toward Jacksonville State. The Gamecocks net 45.9 yards a punt, eighth in the country, while New Mexico State nets 36.5, 121st. The Aggies have also made just 85.0% of their extra points, 136th of 138, a real issue in a game expected to be close.

One counterweight: Jacksonville State allows 28.3 yards per kick return, 129th. A big return could flip field position.

The schedule helps the visitors too. Jacksonville State comes in on 15 days of rest after edging FIU on a late field goal, while New Mexico State had a normal week.

The market and our number

The line opened with Jacksonville State favored by 2.5 and has moved to 3, with the total at 49.5. The Gamecocks closed as favorites by 3 to 7 points in each of their last four games and covered only half of them.

Our model lands right on the market: Jacksonville State by 2.6 with a 49.9 total, and a 44% chance New Mexico State wins outright. In the first half it sees almost nothing between them, with the Gamecocks by 0.8. The series is split, with Jacksonville State winning 54-13 in 2024 after a 20-17 loss in Las Cruces the year before.