Florida International Panthers vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks prediction: Caden Creel and Jacksonville State test FIU's suffocating, untested defense

The defense nobody has tested

Tuesday night in Jacksonville, Alabama, puts two unbeaten Conference USA league records on the line. One team has an elite defense, and the other has an offense good enough to find out whether that defense is real. Jacksonville State is 2-0 in league play and FIU is 1-0. FIU won 27-21 last season, but the Gamecocks lead the series 3-1.

FIU's defense is the reason this line is only a field goal. The Panthers allow 12.2 points per game (6th of 138) and 4.03 yards per play (3rd). Their success rate allowed, the share of opponent plays that stay on schedule, is 33.8%, which ranks 11th. Over the last three games they gave up 7.3 points a game.

The opponents behind those numbers matter, though. Those last three were Florida Atlantic, Long Island University and New Mexico State. The FBS teams FIU has faced carry an average SP+ of -6.7. Jacksonville State brings a passing EPA (expected points added per play) of 0.363, 33rd nationally, and Creel is averaging 8.4 yards per attempt. He has also run for 405 yards and four scores. FIU has not seen a quarterback who threatens it both ways.

Kohl's interception problem

FIU's offense is the weak half of this team. The Panthers score 18.8 points per game (121st) and turn the ball over 1.8 times per game (118th). Most of that runs through J.J. Kohl. He has thrown seven interceptions against five touchdowns, and five of those picks came in the last three games. Three of them came in the loss at Florida Atlantic.

Kohl was reported to have a knee sprain from the LIU game and was listed as available for New Mexico State, where he threw for just 115 yards. His status for Tuesday has not been confirmed. The one comfort is protection: FIU allows 1.2 sacks per game (34th), and Jacksonville State's pass rush ranks 91st in sacks. Kohl will have time. The question is what he does with it. Maguire Anderson is his best target, with 402 yards on the season and 139 at Florida Atlantic. He had one catch against New Mexico State.

FIU can't run, but JSU can't stop it

The Panthers' ground game has been among the worst in the country. FIU averages 2.53 line yards per carry, 132nd. Line yards measure how far the offensive line pushes the run before the back is on his own. Their rushing EPA ranks 129th, and lead back Anthony Carrie averages 3.2 yards per carry.

This is still the most realistic soft spot for FIU to attack. Jacksonville State allows 161.8 rushing yards per game (97th). Its stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line, is 16.7%, which ranks 101st. The Gamecocks also lost linebacker Walker O'Steen for the season with a leg injury. Devonte Lyons ran for 78 yards on 14 carries against New Mexico State. If FIU leans on him, it can keep the ball away from Kohl's riskiest throws.

Hidden yards favor nobody cleanly

Field position is a strange story in Jacksonville State's numbers. The Gamecocks return punts as well as almost anyone, averaging 19.0 yards (8th). Even so, their average drive starts at the 25.1, which ranks 134th. Their kick coverage allows 28.7 yards per return, 127th. FIU is in no position to exploit that, because its own kick return average ranks 127th.

FIU struggles to finish drives. The Panthers score 2.73 points per scoring opportunity (125th) and have missed extra points at a rate that ranks 133rd. Robert Czeremcha kicked a career-high five field goals against New Mexico State, which says as much about the stalled drives as the kicker. Third down could open the door for FIU. The Panthers convert 45.1% (42nd), and Jacksonville State allows 44.4% (116th).

Market and our number agree

Jacksonville State opened at -2.5 and has moved to -3, with the total at 45.5. Our model sets the Gamecocks at -3.01 and the total at 45.68. It gives them a 58% chance to win, so there is no gap between our number and the line.

If Jacksonville State does cover, the ground game is the likeliest reason. In 1,514 tested games, a favourite that covered went over its rushing line 33.9% of the time. If the two were unrelated, that figure would be 25.3%. Creel's legs are the obvious place for that to show up.