Wichita St Shockers vs USC Trojans prediction: Will Berg and Wichita State test USC's rim protectors at Tahoe

Berg's paint, USC's length

Wichita State's opener ran through one man. William Berg scored 26 points and grabbed 16 rebounds against Cal State Northridge, making 11 of 16 shots. That is a new gear for a center who averaged 8.8 points last season as a part-time starter.

Sunday night's test is much harder. USC blocked 17.9% of Milwaukee's two-point attempts, 35th in Division I, and Darius Ratliff swatted five shots by himself. The Trojans' most experienced big is the wild card: Jacob Cofie played only nine minutes of the opener because of severe back spasms, and Eric Musselman said he was concerned about Cofie playing Sunday. USC hasn't confirmed his status.

Wichita State's own frontcourt depth is thin. Noah Hill will miss the season after a setback in his foot recovery, leaving Paul Mills with two healthy traditional centers. If Berg gets into foul trouble, the Shockers go small.

Wichita State needs to make shots

The Shockers won their opener by 12 without shooting well. Their effective field goal percentage (which counts threes as 1.5 shots) was 42.7%, 322nd nationally, and they made 41.7% of their twos, 335th.

Kenyon Giles carried the volume, scoring 21 points with eight assists on 8-of-23 shooting. Giles had been granted a fifth year, and an early October report said an ankle injury would keep him out; he played 36 minutes anyway, and the school hasn't explained the change. Jordan Frison, a Chattanooga transfer who shot 45.5% from three last season, went 2 of 11.

Help may be coming. Dillon Battie and TJ Williams sat out the opener as a precaution with soft-tissue injuries, and Battie is reportedly likely to return Sunday. Mills said he'd be surprised if one of them wasn't available.

A rebuilt Trojan offense

USC brings back only 24.0% of last season's minutes, so last season's team numbers tell little. The new group looked fluent against Milwaukee: the Trojans made 54.5% of their threes, first in the country after opening week, and assisted on 75.8% of their baskets, fifth.

Adonis Ratliff scored 25 points and hit five of seven threes. Rodney Rice, in his first game in almost a year, posted 15 points and nine assists, and Alijah Arenas added 21. The caveat: Milwaukee ranked 256th in last season's adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). Wichita State held CSUN to 23.8% from three, 50th nationally.

The battle for possessions

USC's defense turned Milwaukee over on 23.0% of possessions, 82nd in the country, and its steal rate ranked 38th. Wichita State protected the ball against CSUN, but the Shockers struggled with turnovers in their scrimmage against Murray State, so ball security against a pressing, athletic team is no given.

The Shockers' counter used to be the offensive glass. Last season they grabbed 38.5% of their misses, fifth nationally, while USC ranked 257th in defensive rebounding. Against CSUN, Berg did most of that work himself.

What the market sees

USC is a 6-point favorite with a 156.5 total, and the spread has moved toward the Trojans since our feed first saw the game. The total has ticked up a point from 155.5.

By last season's final adjusted ratings, Wichita State was the stronger team, ranking 68th in net efficiency to USC's 82nd. USC's roster overhaul makes that a weak guide, and the market is pricing the new Trojans. Mills is 1-7 against ranked teams, and a win would be Wichita State's first Top 25 win under him.

• Cofie's minutes: a limited Cofie leaves the Ratliffs to handle Berg alone.
• Battie's return: another big body would ease the strain on a two-center rotation.
• Giles's efficiency: he can't need 23 shots to get 21 against this defense.