Villanova Wildcats vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish prediction: Villanova's transfer shooters test Notre Dame's open perimeter in Rome
Both rosters are close to brand new, but Kevin Willard imported marksmen, and the Irish defense let opponents fire away from deep last season.
| Spread | Villanova -7.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 146.5 |
- Expect Villanova's guards to hunt threes early, with Notre Dame leaning on Logan Duncomb inside to keep pace with a deeper backcourt.
- Duncomb against Villanova's frontcourt: he shot 60% at Winthrop last season, and the Wildcats ranked 348th in block rate.
- Villanova is a 7.5-point favorite with no movement; the total slipped to 146.5. Last season's adjusted net ratings put Villanova 39th, Notre Dame 94th.
A new cast in Rome
Two Catholic programs open their seasons in Rome, with a planned audience with Pope Leo XIV, a Villanova alum, set before the games. The setting is the headline. The basketball question is simpler: which rebuilt roster has its pieces fitting together first?
Neither team looks much like last season's version. Villanova returns just 26.8% of last season's minutes, and Notre Dame returns 34.3%. Both teams are expected to start four new players. That makes last season's team numbers a rough guide at best. Kevin Willard, in his second season, is coming off a 24-9 year. Micah Shrewsberry, in his fourth, is coming off a 13-18 finish and a 4-14 ACC record.
Where the threes come from
Villanova shopped for shooting. Darryl Simmons II made 43.1% of his threes at St. Bonaventure last season. Jake Fiegen hit 41.4% at Cornell, with a 64.9% effective field goal percentage, which counts threes at 1.5 times a two. Tyler Perkins, a preseason first-team pick and now fully cleared after offseason shoulder surgery, shot 36.9% from deep.
That group lines up against a Notre Dame program whose defense let opponents take 47.4% of their shots from three last season. That was the 13th-highest rate in Division I. The Irish do have their own threat in Braeden Shrewsberry, who made 88 threes at a 40.2% clip. If the perimeter stays this open, though, Villanova has more players who can punish it.
Duncomb and the paint
Notre Dame's best counter is size. Winthrop transfer Logan Duncomb averaged 18.2 points on 60% shooting last season, finishing an unusually high share of his team's possessions. Villanova lost Duke Brennan, its interior anchor, and last season's Wildcats blocked shots at a rate that ranked 348th nationally.
The new variable is Luigi Suigo, a 7-3 freshman center expected to start. If he holds up against a physical, experienced post scorer, Notre Dame's clearest path to an upset narrows quickly.
The Evans question
Kwame Evans Jr., the Oregon transfer forward, missed all three of Villanova's practice games with a left leg injury; some reports describe it as a foot injury. As of previews published around Oct. 31 he was still day-to-day, and Willard had not committed to playing him. Matt Hodge, recovering from a torn ACL, is not expected to play. Elijah Crawford, Perkins, Devin Royal and Suigo look set to start, with the fifth spot open.
The preseason results point the same way as the roster. Villanova edged Rutgers 77-75 on the road behind Royal's debut and then beat George Mason comfortably. Notre Dame lost its exhibition at Dayton 75-65 after being outscored 14-4 over the final four minutes. A report mentions an unnamed Irish player who dealt with a preseason injury, and Notre Dame hasn't said who it is or whether he plays.
Reading the number
Ten books have Villanova at -7.5, the same line our feed first recorded, with the Wildcats at -325 on the moneyline. The total has dipped a point to 146.5. One holdover trait worth watching: Notre Dame's defense ranked 342nd in forcing turnovers last season. With Villanova's backcourt now built around shooters and a high-usage creator in Crawford, the Irish may not generate many easy possessions to close a gap.
Villanova Wildcats vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish line movement and odds
| Book | Wildcats ML | Irish ML | Wildcats spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -300 | +240 | -6.5 (-115) | o145.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | -335 | +255 | -7.5 (-105) | o146.5 (-107) |
| DraftKings | -298 | +240 | -7.5 (-105) | o145.5 (-105) |
| ESPN BET | -300 | +250 | -7.5 (-110) | o145.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | -320 | +250 | -7 (-110) | o145.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -310 | +245 | -7.5 (-102) | o145.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -325 | +260 | -7.5 (-105) | o145.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | -305 | +240 | -7 (-110) | o145.5 (-110) |
Key players
- Darryl Simmons II (Villanova): Shot 43.1% from three and 89.9% at the line last season while playing 35.5 minutes a game.
- Tyler Perkins (Villanova): Averaged 13.7 points with a 122.4 offensive rating last season and is cleared after shoulder surgery.
- Jake Fiegen (Villanova): Posted a 64.9% effective field goal percentage while scoring 17.1 points a game last season.
- Devin Royal (Villanova): Averaged 13.7 points and 5.6 rebounds at Ohio State last season before a standout exhibition debut.
- Logan Duncomb (Notre Dame): Scored 18.2 points a game on 60% shooting with a 130.9 offensive rating last season.
- Ethan Roberts (Notre Dame): Averaged 16.9 points and shot 41.2% from three at Penn last season.
- Braeden Shrewsberry (Notre Dame): Made 88 threes at a 40.2% rate last season, the top returning scorer for the Irish.
Numbers that matter
| Notre Dame opponent 3PA rate, last season | 47.4% | Opponents took nearly half their shots from three against the Irish, the 13th-highest rate nationally. |
|---|---|---|
| Villanova block rate, last season | 5.9% | It ranked 348th, a soft interior that Duncomb will test if the freshman Suigo struggles. |
| Villanova returning minutes | 26.8% | So little returns that last season's team profile says less than the transfers' individual lines. |
| Spread | -7.5 | Villanova's number has not moved since our feed first recorded it. |
| Total | 146.5 | Down a point from the first line seen, between two teams that played slower than average last season. |
Villanova Wildcats vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish: quick answers
Who is favored in Villanova Wildcats vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish?
Villanova is favored by 7.5 points (Villanova -7.5).
What is the over/under for Villanova Wildcats vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish?
The total is 146.5 points.
When is Villanova Wildcats vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish?
Sunday, November 1, 2026 at 9:30 AM ET.
Has the line moved for Villanova Wildcats vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish?
No: Villanova Wildcats has stayed at -7.5, and the total moved from 148.5 to 145.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).