Stetson Hatters vs Howard Bison prediction: Howard's home opener tests a Stetson defense that hasn't stopped anyone

A defense still looking for stops

Stetson is 0-3, and the defense explains most of it. The Hatters allow 135.3 points per 100 possessions, 357th of 364 Division I teams. The schedule was brutal: all three games came on the road, starting at Clemson (38th in adjusted net efficiency, a points-per-100-possessions margin adjusted for opponents).

The deeper problem is that Stetson takes nothing away. Its forced turnover rate, the share of opponent possessions ending in a giveaway, sits at 10.5%, 361st nationally. Opponents shoot 63.3% inside the arc. Every trip ends in a shot, and too many of those shots go in.

Howard has a way to pile on. The Bison grab 38.9% of their own misses, 77th nationally, and Stetson secures only 61.3% of opponent misses, 339th. Second chances should be there all night.

Kuhl and not much else

Stetson returns just 38.9% of last season's minutes, and the biggest loss was shooting. Ethan Copeland, who averaged 15.0 points on 42.9% from three last season, is now at Virginia Tech. The Hatters were a 36.3% three-point team last season; this season they're at 28.2% while still firing away from deep.

That leaves Collin Kuhl. The senior forward, named ASUN Preseason Player of the Year, has scored 20, 17 and 12 points in three games and leads the team in rebounding. He had 14 when Stetson beat Howard 64-60 in DeLand last November. Kuhl will have to work around James Brown, who is blocking 2.0 shots per game. Point guard Thiago Sucatzky, a transfer from FIU, leads the team in assists but has a 68.3 offensive rating.

Howard's defense hasn't come back yet

Last season Howard won the MEAC regular season and tournament on defense, finishing 23rd nationally in defensive efficiency. Through three road games this season, it ranks 280th. Bryce Harris, last season's leading scorer, is gone, though the Bison return 64.9% of their minutes.

The returnees are carrying the offense. Cam Gillus has hit 8 of 13 threes, and Cedric Taylor III dropped 27 at Alcorn State. The weak spot is Alex Cotton, who is 2 of 17 from deep. The Penn loss was the warning sign: Howard led at halftime and lost by 13.

Tempo, free throws and the number

Stetson plays at 63.2 possessions per 40 minutes, 347th in pace, and has been buried early, scoring 26.3 first-half points per game. Howard plays at a middle-of-the-pack pace. If the Hatters can't drag this into the half court, the gap widens fast.

Both teams have been poor at the line, but Stetson's 53.1% is 359th nationally, a real problem for any underdog trying to hang around late. Howard is a 10.5-point favorite, and the line and the 152.5 total have held steady since our feed first recorded them. Stetson did cover as a 22.5-point underdog at Clemson, and it comes in with six days of rest to Howard's three. Neither team has reported an injury; Stetson listed none as of Nov. 11.