Richmond Spiders vs Southern Illinois Salukis prediction: Richmond's transfer-built passing attack tests Scott Nagy's rebuilt Southern Illinois defense
Both teams return less than a quarter of last season's minutes, so this early-season trip to Carbondale is the first real look at two rosters nobody knows yet.
| Spread | Richmond -3.75 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 155 |
- Expect a tempo tug-of-war: Richmond wants to run and share the ball, Southern Illinois wants a slower game decided by defense.
- Richmond's new backcourt, led by Dominick Stewart, against a Saluki defense that ranked 34th nationally in adjusted efficiency last season.
- No line has posted in our feed yet; Richmond covered -15.5 and went over 152.5 in its opener.
Two rosters starting over
Last season's numbers will mislead anyone who leans on them here. Richmond returns just 22.1% of last season's minutes, and Southern Illinois returns 18.1%. The Salukis added seven new players over the offseason, while the Spiders rebuilt around five transfers from Bucknell, UC Irvine, Butler, Penn State and Monmouth.
Both programs finished near .500 last season, Richmond at 15-17 and Southern Illinois at 16-16. That tells you little about the teams taking the floor on Thursday, Nov. 12. The better guide is who these players were at their old schools and what they showed in one opening night each.
The Spiders share the ball
Richmond's opener was as smooth as a debut gets. The Spiders beat UNC Asheville 100-77, piling up 28 assists, their most since 2015, and putting six players in double figures. Their effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure that counts threes 1.5 times) sits at 69.7%, fifth in Division I.
Stewart, a Penn State transfer, scored a career-high 29 points on 4-of-5 shooting from three. Derin Saran ran the show with eight assists, and Bucknell transfer Amon Dorries added five blocks at center. The caveat is the opponent: UNC Asheville ranked 234th in adjusted net rating, a long way from what a road game in the Missouri Valley should look like.
What Nagy's defense looks like now
Scott Nagy, in his third season in Carbondale, built last season's team on defense. The Salukis allowed 99.7 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents, 34th of 365, while their offense ranked 250th by the same measure.
The opener suggested the identity survived the roster churn. Southern Illinois held Maryville to 11 first-half points, the second-lowest half in program history, and won 82-40. Maryville is not a Division I program, so treat every Saluki number from that night as a hint rather than a verdict. Richmond's guards will be the first real test.
Southern Illinois lets it fly
The more striking change is on offense. Last season's Salukis took only 29.6% of their shots from three, 355th nationally, and made 27.8% of them, 364th. Against Maryville, 59.1% of their attempts came from deep.
Jalen Haynes, the returning sophomore, led the way with 20 points and went 4 of 6 from three after shooting 20.5% from deep last season. Luke Walsh added 14 points off the bench. If that volume holds against a Division I defense, Southern Illinois has a way to keep pace with a Richmond offense that figures to score.
Rematch and setting
Richmond won last season's meeting 93-84 at the Robins Center on Dec. 13, 2025, and this is the return trip. Both teams come in with 10 days of rest after opening on Nov. 2. Richmond has won eight straight season openers under Chris Mooney, but this is its first road test, and Southern Illinois gets a home crowd at the Banterra Center. Tip is set for 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
- Whether Richmond's assist-heavy offense holds up against a defense with Division I length
- How many threes Southern Illinois takes, and whether Haynes keeps making them
- Which team controls the pace early
Richmond Spiders vs Southern Illinois Salukis line movement and odds
| Book | Spiders ML | Salukis ML | Spiders spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -170 | +140 | -3.5 (-110) | o153.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | -180 | +140 | -3.5 (-110) | o153.5 (-112) |
| DraftKings | -162 | +136 | -3.5 (-105) | o154.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | — | — | -3.5 (-115) | o154.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | -170 | +140 | -3.5 (-110) | o154 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -166 | +138 | -3.5 (-110) | o153.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Richmond Spiders vs Southern Illinois Salukis
On the Kalshi moneyline: Richmond Spiders: 29% of bets, 78% of the money; Southern Illinois Salukis: 71% of bets, 22% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Richmond Spiders -4.5: 31% of bets, 32% of the money; Southern Illinois Salukis +4.5: 69% of bets, 68% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 155.5: 33% of bets, 86% of the money; Under 155.5: 67% of bets, 14% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: Richmond Spiders (1 wallet, $2). Largest: forecastication4 $2 on Richmond Spiders. Spread: Richmond Spiders (1 wallet, $550). Largest: Rapid-Lay $550 on Richmond Spiders.
Richmond Spiders vs Southern Illinois Salukis stats (this season)
| Stat | Richmond Spiders | Southern Illinois Salukis |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-0 | 1-1 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 111.8 (119th of 365) | 104.9 (250th of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 109.6 (183rd of 365) | 99.7 (34th of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | 2.1 (144th of 365) | 5.2 (112th of 365) |
| Pace | 73.0 (109th of 364) | 70.8 (185th of 364) |
| Effective FG% | 66.1% (4th of 364) | 56.8% (95th of 364) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 42.6% (66th of 364) | 48.3% (184th of 364) |
| Turnover rate | 16.4% (129th of 364) | 12.7% (35th of 364) |
| Offensive rebound % | 34.4% (158th of 364) | 32.9% (202nd of 364) |
| 3-point % | 49.3% (4th of 364) | 38.7% (73rd of 364) |
| Free throw rate | 24.0% (331st of 364) | 23.5% (337th of 364) |
Key players
- Dominick Stewart (Richmond): Scored a career-high 29 points in the opener after averaging 6.6 points at Penn State last season.
- Derin Saran (Richmond): Handed out eight assists with 15 points in his Richmond debut.
- Amon Dorries (Richmond): Averaged 16.2 points at Bucknell last season and blocked five shots in his first game as a Spider.
- Jamie Kaiser Jr. (Richmond): Hit 4 of 7 threes for 16 points in the opener.
- Jalen Haynes (Southern Illinois): Led the Salukis with 20 points and seven assists against Maryville.
- Luke Walsh (Southern Illinois): Scored 14 points off the bench, making 4 of 7 threes.
- Max Pikaar (Southern Illinois): Grabbed 10 rebounds and blocked three shots in the opener.
Numbers that matter
| Richmond returning minutes | 22.1% | The Spiders rebuilt around transfers, so last season's team numbers say little. |
|---|---|---|
| SIU returning minutes | 18.1% | Seven newcomers make this a different Saluki team from last season's. |
| SIU adjusted defense rank, last season | 34th | Nagy's defensive identity is the one thing that could carry over despite the roster churn. |
| Richmond effective FG% | 69.7% | Fifth nationally after the opener, built against a UNC Asheville team ranked 234th. |
| SIU 3-point attempt rate | 59.1% | A sharp turn from last season, when the Salukis ranked 355th in three-point volume. |
Richmond Spiders vs Southern Illinois Salukis: quick answers
Who is favored in Richmond Spiders vs Southern Illinois Salukis?
Richmond is favored by 3.75 points (Richmond -3.75).
What is the over/under for Richmond Spiders vs Southern Illinois Salukis?
The total is 155 points.
When is Richmond Spiders vs Southern Illinois Salukis?
Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.
Where is Richmond Spiders vs Southern Illinois Salukis played?
Banterra Center, Carbondale, IL.
Has the line moved for Richmond Spiders vs Southern Illinois Salukis?
Yes: Richmond Spiders opened -4.5 and is now -3.5, and the total moved from 155.5 to 153.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Richmond Spiders vs Southern Illinois Salukis?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Richmond Spiders: 29% of bets, 78% of the money; Southern Illinois Salukis: 71% of bets, 22% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Richmond Spiders -4.5: 31% of bets, 32% of the money; Southern Illinois Salukis +4.5: 69% of bets, 68% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 155.5: 33% of bets, 86% of the money; Under 155.5: 67% of bets, 14% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Richmond Spiders vs Southern Illinois Salukis?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: Richmond Spiders (1 wallet, $2). Largest: forecastication4 $2 on Richmond Spiders. Spread: Richmond Spiders (1 wallet, $550). Largest: Rapid-Lay $550 on Richmond Spiders. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.