New Mexico St Aggies vs San Diego St Aztecs prediction: San Diego State's offensive glass looms over short-handed New Mexico State

Second chances in Oceanside

Two rosters built almost from scratch meet on a neutral floor at the Compete 4 Cause Classic, and the clearest gap between them sits under the rim. San Diego State has grabbed 41.0% of its own misses (offensive rebound rate), 67th nationally. New Mexico State has secured only 59.5% of opponents' misses, 337th of 364. Two games is a small sample, and one of the Aggies' was a 109-68 beating at Gonzaga. But the Aztecs also play bigger, with a minutes-weighted average height of 78.0 inches against 76.9 for the Aggies.

The Aggies' frontcourt has also thinned. Stephon Payne III, a 6-9 Seton Hall transfer who blocked 1.2 shots a game there last season, was still waiting on eligibility clearance tied to a lawsuit in the most recent reports. That leaves Mark Lavrenov and Long Beach State transfer Leopold Levillain to hold the paint, behind a defense that blocks just 4.8% of opponents' two-point tries, 316th nationally.

An Aggies rotation under strain

Jason Hooten's fourth New Mexico State team lost senior Gabe Warren to a torn ACL six minutes into the opener, a 73-66 win over Western New Mexico in which the Aggies trailed at halftime. Warren, a Holy Cross transfer, averaged 12.5 points there last season and is out for the year. KK Robinson, a seventh-year senior, played on a minutes restriction in that opener.

The scoring now runs through two transfers. Lavrenov carries a 31.7% usage rate (the share of possessions he finishes) and averages 18.0 points. DJ Dudley, the lead guard, has hit 6 of 12 threes. Last season's numbers offer little help: New Mexico State returns just 21.5% of last season's minutes from a team that went 16-16.

Aztecs rebuilt around new guards

San Diego State turned over even more. Brian Dutcher's roster returns 14.6% of last season's minutes, so the stout defense the Aztecs finished with last season (16th in adjusted defensive efficiency, points allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for opponents) is a loose guide at best. Rice transfer Nick Anderson, expected to be a key piece, is likely to miss most, if not all, of the season with a knee injury.

The new backcourt has answered anyway. Latrell Davis, who sat out the Arizona exhibition with a shoulder issue, is averaging 21.5 points and has made 9 of 14 threes. Boston University transfer Chance Gladden scored 30 in the 77-66 win over Colorado, a game SDSU led 35-17 at the half. Bear Cherry anchors the back line at 2.5 blocks per game. One footnote: Cherry and Lavrenov both arrive from Sacramento State. Luka Skoric was listed as questionable with a groin injury on Oct. 19, and nothing newer has surfaced.

Where the Aggies can hang around

The Aztecs' weak spot is the ball. They have turned it over on 22.9% of possessions, 327th nationally, and they don't take it away either, ranking 317th in forced turnover rate. New Mexico State is nearly as loose with its own possessions, so this could be a sloppy afternoon for both.

The foul line cuts both ways. SDSU draws heavily, with a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 56.5%, 22nd in the country. New Mexico State has made 87.0% of its free throws, eighth nationally, which matters if the Aggies keep it within reach late.

The Aztecs rarely shoot threes, ranking 317th in 3-point attempt rate, but they have made 42.1% of them. Against an Aggies defense allowing 38.3% from deep, the few they take could land.

What to watch

• Tempo: SDSU has played at 76.5 possessions per 40 minutes, far quicker than the Aggies' 69.3.
• Lavrenov's workload: with Payne unavailable, foul trouble for him could open the glass even wider.
• History: SDSU leads the series 5-3; the last meeting was a 73-69 overtime win in the 2014 NCAA Tournament.
• Stakes: SDSU was picked third in its first Pac-12 season; NMSU was picked sixth in Conference USA.