Pepperdine Waves vs Oregon Ducks prediction: Pepperdine's rebuilt Waves face their first real test at Oregon

What the Waves' numbers hide

Pepperdine arrives 2-1 with scoring numbers that look like a top-50 team's. Look closer. Two of those wins came at home against La Sierra and Bethesda, opponents without Division I ratings, and the 116-43 rout of Bethesda says more about the opponent than the Waves.

The only real measuring stick was the opener, an 86-85 loss at Cornell in which Pepperdine closed as a 3.25-point favorite and didn't cover. That's the most honest data point first-year coach Griff Aldrich, who came over from Virginia, has so far.

Last season's numbers won't help much either. Pepperdine went 9-23, but this roster returns just 5.1% of last season's minutes, so the Waves are effectively a new team. Oregon is rebuilt too, returning 20.7% of its minutes, with Tony Stubblefield 2-0 as interim coach after Dana Altman retired in October. Last season's final adjusted net rating (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) put Oregon 99th and Pepperdine 270th, a gap that reflects programs more than these players.

Oregon scores where it shoots

Oregon's offense has been ruthlessly efficient through two home wins. Its effective field goal percentage (which counts threes 1.5 times) of 65.9% ranks 12th nationally, built on 69.0% shooting inside the arc.

The Ducks barely look for threes: their 3-point attempt rate ranks 348th, near the very bottom. When they do shoot from deep, they make 38.9%. Expect a steady diet of post touches and drives against a Pepperdine defense whose interior numbers so far come mostly from the weaker opponents.

Pepperdine plays the opposite way. Half its shots come from deep, with a 3-point attempt rate of 50.8%, 46th in the country. The best bet to make that work is Jahari Williamson, who shot 44.5% from three at Kent State last season. If the Waves turn this into a long-range contest, the variance gives them a path. If Oregon gets the game played near the rim, the home side's efficiency should tell.

Riley out, Lin steps up

Oregon lost Tyrone Riley IV to a hand injury in the opener, a game in which he scored 17 points. The school ruled him out for at least four weeks, with a reevaluation set at that point, so he won't play Sunday.

Wei Lin, one of only two major contributors back from last season, has filled the scoring gap off the bench. He scored 20 against Eastern Washington and is averaging 15.0 points, a sharp turn for a guard who shot 29.5% from three last season.

The bigger piece is Malique Ewin. The Arkansas transfer was cleared through an NCAA waiver for a fifth season and had 10 points, seven rebounds and seven assists in the Nov. 6 win. Returning starter Sean Stewart has been listed with an undisclosed issue; his status is unconfirmed.

Pepperdine's scorers and the glass

Petar Majstorovic, a transfer from Long Beach State, leads Pepperdine at 18.0 points per game and has started every game. Alex Constanza gave the Waves their best answer at Cornell, scoring 25 points off the bench in his college debut.

The Waves have crashed the offensive glass hard, but that number comes mostly against the two non-rated opponents. Oregon ranks 45th in defensive rebound rate (the share of opponent misses it collects). Second chances are where a visitor can find extra possessions, and Oregon has been solid on the defensive glass.

What to watch

• Three-point volume: Pepperdine's shooters need a hot day to offset Oregon's interior edge.
• Ewin's touches: he runs the offense from the post; Pepperdine's help defense will be tested.
• Lin's bench minutes: with Riley out, Oregon leans on him for perimeter scoring.
• Rest: Pepperdine gets eight days off and Oregon nine, so neither side has a fatigue edge.