Mercyhurst Lakers vs Penn State Nittany Lions prediction: Roko Prkačin and Penn State's new frontcourt face an undersized Mercyhurst
Both programs rebuilt almost from scratch, but only one showed up to opening night with a working inside game and the size to own the glass.
| Spread | Penn State -20.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 147.5 |
- Penn State should control the paint and the offensive glass, leaving Mercyhurst to win only if its threes start falling.
- Ivan Jurić and Roko Prkačin inside against a Mercyhurst defense that grabbed 39.4% of available defensive rebounds at Marquette.
- No line is posted yet; Penn State covered -23.75 in its opener, while Mercyhurst failed to cover +31.5 at Marquette.
The paint is Penn State's
Penn State spent the offseason replacing a team that went 12-20, and the first look at the new version came off the bench. Roko Prkačin, who spent the preseason working through the eligibility process, scored 28 points in his debut against Canisius. He needed only 20 minutes to do it, and the Nittany Lions won 97-57.
That game was won inside. Penn State made 69.6% of its two-point shots, 25th in Division I, and Ivan Jurić added 14 points and 15 rebounds at center. The Nittany Lions also rebounded 43.8% of their own misses (offensive rebound rate), 45th nationally.
Mercyhurst is poorly built to stop that. At Marquette the Lakers secured just 39.4% of the defensive rebounds available to them, 302nd of 303 teams. Their best rim protector from last season, Qadir Martin, who blocked 2.4 shots per game, now plays at Fairfield. Expect Penn State to get second chances all night.
Mercyhurst needs its threes back
The Lakers lean on the three: 46.6% of their shots at Marquette came from deep, 86th nationally. They made 14.8% of them. That left an effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 32.8%, and a 43-78 loss that was decided by halftime, when Mercyhurst had 14 points.
The shooting should improve. Jake Lemelman, a preseason All-NEC guard, went 2 of 8 from three in the opener but hit 40% last season. Fellow All-NEC pick Tennessee Rainwater made 50% of his threes at Le Moyne last season. The supporting cast is the worry: Geoff Sprouse went 0 for 6 from deep and Or Faran 0 for 4.
Penn State's opening-night perimeter defense looked sharp, holding Canisius to 18.2% from three. Canisius finished last season 345th in adjusted net efficiency, so treat that number with caution.
Two rosters starting over
Last season's numbers say little about either team. Mercyhurst returns 22.2% of last season's minutes, Penn State 26.4%. Penn State's defense ranked 352nd of 365 last season; almost none of those players remain. Mercyhurst's defense ranked 50th, but the core of that group is gone too, along with leading scorer Bernie Blunt III.
The Lakers did reach the NEC title game last season under Gary Manchel, now in his 24th year, before falling to Long Island. They aren't eligible for the NCAA tournament until 2027-28. Penn State, picked last in one preseason Big Ten poll, rebuilt with transfers like Brant Byers from Miami (Ohio) and Dasonte Bowen from St. Bonaventure.
Availability and the setting
Bowen missed the Oct. 17 exhibition with an undisclosed issue, returned at Drexel on Oct. 26 and started the opener at point guard. No newer injury news has surfaced. Josh Reed is eligible, though a pending eligibility lawsuit in Ohio could change that. Reggie Grodin, who redshirted last season while injured, played against Canisius. Nothing has been reported on Mercyhurst's availability.
Both teams get 10 days of rest. The game doubles as Penn State's Hoops for Troops and Senior Day, and it is the first meeting between the in-state programs.
Tempo and the total
Penn State ran 73 possessions per 40 minutes in its opener; Mercyhurst played at 65. The Lakers ranked 315th in pace last season, and a team that struggles to score has every reason to drain the clock. Both openers went under, Penn State's against a closing total of 154.25 and Mercyhurst's against 146.5. Books haven't posted a number for this one yet.
Mercyhurst Lakers vs Penn State Nittany Lions line movement and odds
| Book | Lakers ML | Lions ML | Lakers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1350 | -5000 | +20.5 (-115) | o147.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +20.5 (-114) | o147.5 (-112) |
| DraftKings | +1800 | -5000 | +20.5 (-115) | o147.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | — | — | +20.5 (-120) | o147.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | +2500 | -7000 | +20.5 (-110) | o147.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +2000 | -7000 | +20.5 (-110) | o147.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +20.5 (-110) | o147.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | — | — | +20.5 (-110) | o147.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Mercyhurst Lakers vs Penn State Nittany Lions
On the Kalshi moneyline: Mercyhurst Lakers: 55% of bets, 10% of the money; Penn State Nittany Lions: 45% of bets, 90% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Penn State Nittany Lions -20.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money; Mercyhurst Lakers +20.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 147.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money; Under 147.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Total: over (2 wallets, $119). Largest: Boiling-Sprat-Dwell $96 on over, 0x842c… $23 on over.
Mercyhurst Lakers vs Penn State Nittany Lions stats (this season)
| Stat | Mercyhurst Lakers | Penn State Nittany Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 99.4 (323rd of 365) | 114.7 (84th of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 110.1 (194th of 365) | 111.9 (233rd of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -10.7 (280th of 365) | 2.8 (137th of 365) |
| Pace | 69.2 (245th of 364) | 72.7 (118th of 364) |
| Effective FG% | 44.2% (334th of 364) | 52.7% (174th of 364) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 48.0% (182nd of 364) | 52.1% (268th of 364) |
| Turnover rate | 20.8% (296th of 364) | 17.8% (189th of 364) |
| Offensive rebound % | 27.9% (289th of 364) | 43.6% (23rd of 364) |
| 3-point % | 21.5% (354th of 364) | 26.3% (330th of 364) |
| Free throw rate | 18.1% (361st of 364) | 67.9% (1st of 364) |
Key players
- Roko Prkačin (Penn State): Scored 28 points on 85.7% shooting in 20 minutes of his debut.
- Ivan Jurić (Penn State): Posted 14 points and 15 rebounds against Canisius.
- Brant Byers (Penn State): Shot 39.5% from three on 177 attempts last season at Miami (Ohio).
- Josh Reed (Penn State): Scored 12 points on 57.1% shooting in the opener.
- Jake Lemelman (Mercyhurst): Scored 16 points with a 30.2% usage rate at Marquette after shooting 40% from three last season.
- Tennessee Rainwater (Mercyhurst): Made 50% of his threes and had a 116.5 offensive rating last season at Le Moyne.
- Hunter Te Ratana (Mercyhurst): Scored 8 points with two steals in 25 minutes at Marquette.
Numbers that matter
| Mercyhurst defensive rebound % | 39.4% | Ranked 302nd of 303 at Marquette, a bad sign against Penn State's offensive glass. |
|---|---|---|
| Penn State offensive rebound % | 43.8% | Ranked 45th nationally in the opener. |
| Mercyhurst 3-point % | 14.8% | A three-heavy team that went cold in its opener. |
| Penn State 2-point % | 69.6% | Ranked 25th, powered by Prkačin and Jurić. |
| Mercyhurst returning minutes | 22.2% | Makes last season's top-50 defense a weak guide. |
Mercyhurst Lakers vs Penn State Nittany Lions: quick answers
Who is favored in Mercyhurst Lakers vs Penn State Nittany Lions?
Penn State is favored by 20.5 points (Penn State -20.5).
What is the over/under for Mercyhurst Lakers vs Penn State Nittany Lions?
The total is 147.5 points.
When is Mercyhurst Lakers vs Penn State Nittany Lions?
Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 6:30 PM ET.
Where is Mercyhurst Lakers vs Penn State Nittany Lions played?
Bryce Jordan Center, University Park, PA.
Has the line moved for Mercyhurst Lakers vs Penn State Nittany Lions?
No: Mercyhurst Lakers has stayed at +20.5, and the total is still 147.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Mercyhurst Lakers vs Penn State Nittany Lions?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Mercyhurst Lakers: 55% of bets, 10% of the money; Penn State Nittany Lions: 45% of bets, 90% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Penn State Nittany Lions -20.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money; Mercyhurst Lakers +20.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 147.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money; Under 147.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Mercyhurst Lakers vs Penn State Nittany Lions?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Total: over (2 wallets, $119). Largest: Boiling-Sprat-Dwell $96 on over, 0x842c… $23 on over. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.