Marist Red Foxes vs UMass Lowell River Hawks prediction: Marist brings back its defensive identity, not its scorers, to Lowell
Last season's Red Foxes choked opponents from three, but with barely a quarter of their minutes back, UMass Lowell gets an early look at whether that defense survives a near-total rebuild.
UMass Lowell River Hawks covered the closing spread (Marist Red Foxes +1.5). The game went under the closing total of 141.5.
| Spread | UMass Lowell -1.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 142.5 |
- Expect a grinding, slower game in which Marist's defensive habits are tested against a Lowell team that crashes the glass and seldom shoots threes.
- Lowell's offensive rebounding against a Marist defense that finished last season second nationally in opponent 3-point percentage and must now win on the boards too.
- No spread or total posted yet; last season's adjusted net ratings had Marist 187th and Lowell 319th of 365.
A defense with new faces
Marist won 19 games last season almost entirely on one end. The Red Foxes allowed 95.7 points per 100 possessions, fourth in Division I, and opponents made just 28.3% of their threes, second nationally. The offense rarely had to be good, and it wasn't.
The catch is who is left. Players on this season's roster accounted for only 26.9% of last season's minutes. Justin Menard, the team's top scorer at 12.9 points a game, is gone, along with fellow guards Rhyjon Blackwell and Elijah Lewis and starting forward Jaden Daughtry. That makes last season's team numbers a weak guide. Coach John Dunne, entering his ninth season after no reported coaching change, has to rebuild the defense in a new group of bodies by early November.
Who carries Marist now
Graduate guard Jadin Collins-Roberts is the anchor, a full-time starter who played 30.3 minutes a game last season. He set up teammates more than he scored, and his jumper is a question: he made 23.8% of his threes.
The more intriguing returner is forward Myles Parker, who came off the bench and hit 38.5% from deep with an offensive rating of 120.6, the most efficient line among the players back. The new scoring load likely falls to Jack Graham, a transfer from New Hampshire who averaged 11.2 points last season. A roster heavy on freshmen fills in behind them.
Lowell's edge on the glass
UMass Lowell's best weapon last season was second chances. The River Hawks rebounded 34.8% of their own misses, 61st nationally, while Marist's defensive rebounding ranked 83rd. If the rebuilt Red Foxes frontcourt is slow to box out, that is where Lowell finds points.
The ball-security matchup cuts the other way. Marist forced turnovers on 19.3% of possessions, 64th, and Lowell coughed it up at a rate that ranked 250th. Free throws will not swing much: Marist got to the line less often than all but four teams, and Lowell shot 66.7% at the stripe, 347th.
Lowell's reset
Pat Duquette starts his 14th season in Lowell after a 15-18 finish that ended with a 91-69 loss to UMBC in the America East semifinals. League coaches picked the River Hawks seventh this fall. The defense was the problem: last season's final adjusted rating, which accounts for opponents, allowed 118.2 points per 100 possessions, 326th.
The current roster lists four freshmen, and several 2025-26 contributors, including Austin Green, Angel Montas Jr. and Xavier Spencer, don't appear on the visible portion of it. Lowell hasn't publicly settled who replaces them, so treat its returning core as unconfirmed until it plays.
Shape of the game
Neither team pushed the pace last season. Marist ranked 250th in tempo and Lowell 119th, which points to a modest possession count in a Sunday early-afternoon tip at Costello Athletic Center. No spread or total has been posted. The two programs' published schedules have not fully agreed on this date, so confirm the matchup and tip time before placing anything. These teams have not met since Lowell won 76-73 on this floor in 2017.
Marist Red Foxes vs UMass Lowell River Hawks line movement and odds
| Book | Foxes ML | Hawks ML | Foxes spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +105 | -125 | +1.5 (-110) | o141.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | -103 | -125 | +0.5 (+100) | o143.5 (+100) |
| DraftKings | +110 | -130 | +1.5 (-105) | o141.5 (-112) |
| ESPN BET | +110 | -130 | +1.5 (-105) | o141.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +105 | -125 | +1.5 (-110) | o142 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -102 | -118 | +1.5 (-115) | o141.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +100 | -125 | — | o143.5 (+100) |
| Caesars | +105 | -125 | +1.5 (-110) | o142 (-110) |
Key players
- Jadin Collins-Roberts (Marist): Started all 31 games last season, playing 30.3 minutes a night but shooting 23.8% from three.
- Myles Parker (Marist): Posted a 120.6 offensive rating off the bench last season while hitting 38.5% from deep.
- Jack Graham (Marist): Averaged 11.2 points at New Hampshire last season, the most of anyone on Marist's current roster.
Numbers that matter
| Marist returning minutes | 26.9% | Barely a quarter of last season's minutes are back, so last year's elite defensive numbers may not carry over. |
|---|---|---|
| Marist opponent 3-point % | 28.3% | Ranked 2nd nationally last season and was the core of the Red Foxes' identity. |
| Lowell offensive rebound % | 34.8% | Ranked 61st last season, Lowell's clearest edge against a rebuilt Marist frontcourt. |
| Lowell adjusted defense rank | 326th | Last season's final opponent-adjusted defense, the biggest weakness the River Hawks must fix. |
| Lowell preseason poll | 7th | Where America East coaches slotted the River Hawks this fall. |
Marist Red Foxes vs UMass Lowell River Hawks: quick answers
What was the final score of Marist Red Foxes vs UMass Lowell River Hawks?
Marist Red Foxes 61, UMass Lowell River Hawks 63 (final). UMass Lowell River Hawks covered the closing spread (Marist Red Foxes +1.5). The game went under the closing total of 141.5.
Who is favored in Marist Red Foxes vs UMass Lowell River Hawks?
UMass Lowell is favored by 1.5 points (UMass Lowell -1.5).
What is the over/under for Marist Red Foxes vs UMass Lowell River Hawks?
The total is 142.5 points.
When is Marist Red Foxes vs UMass Lowell River Hawks?
Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Marist Red Foxes vs UMass Lowell River Hawks?
Yes: Marist Red Foxes opened +1 and is now +1.5, and the total moved from 146.5 to 141.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).