Loyola (MD) Greyhounds vs Towson Tigers prediction: Loyola's three-point barrage tests a Towson defense that concedes the arc
Loyola can barely score inside the arc, and Towson's early defense hands opponents a steady supply of threes, so the 410 Invitational opener may come down to the Greyhounds' long-range shooting.
| Spread | Towson -13.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 134.5 |
- Towson's turnover pressure and size should control a slow game unless Loyola's shooters punish the open looks Towson has allowed.
- Leo Ricketts against Towson's perimeter defense: he has made 10 of 18 threes, and Towson opponents shoot heavily from deep.
- Towson is a 13.5-point favorite, the same number our feed first logged. Towson's 50.7% free-throw shooting makes covering harder than the spread suggests.
Loyola lives and dies outside
Loyola has made its identity plain in three games: shoot threes or don't score. The Greyhounds take 51.3% of their shots from beyond the arc, 31st most in Division I, and make 37.6% of them. Inside the arc they make just 39.6% of their twos, 350th of 364. Their 19 made threes against Washington College set a program record, but that came against an opponent with no Division I rating and says more about volume than quality.
Towson's defense invites the shots Loyola wants. Opponents take 51.2% of their attempts from three against the Tigers, 22nd most in the country, and have made only 30.5% so far. That number looks lucky as much as stingy. If Loyola's shooters keep finding those looks and the percentage evens out, the Greyhounds can stay closer than the market expects. If they go cold, nothing else on their offense props them up.
Turnovers and the foul line
Towson's clearest edge is its pressure. The Tigers force turnovers on 22.3% of opponent possessions, 83rd nationally, while Loyola forces them on only 15.1%, 310th. Loyola has protected the ball reasonably well, but Towson is the first opponent on its schedule built to test that.
The counterweight is Towson's own sloppiness and its free throws. The Tigers give the ball away on 20.4% of possessions, 284th, and they shoot just 50.7% from the line, 362nd of 364. They do get there often, with a free throw rate (free throw attempts per shot attempt) of 41.8%. A favorite laying a big number needs to close games at the line, and Towson has not been able to. Jaquan Womack, one of its best scorers, has made 22.2% of his free throws.
Two rosters starting over
Neither team looks much like last season's version. Loyola brings back 31.9% of last season's minutes, Towson 25.7%. Loyola has ten players new to the program and ranks 343rd of 362 in KenPom's experience measure. Last season's team numbers are a weak guide for both.
Loyola's offense now runs through Leo Ricketts, a junior-college transfer who leads the team at 17.7 points per game and scored 28 against Washington College. Carter Berg-McLean sets him up, averaging 6.0 assists. Sebastien Emenalo carries a heavy load but has made just 21.1% of his threes.
Towson's preseason All-CAA second-teamer, Villanova transfer Zion Stanford, uses 28.4% of possessions while shooting 31.4% from the field. Womack has been the more efficient scorer, making 6 of 12 threes. The Tigers are also the bigger team, at 78.4 inches of minutes-weighted height against 76.8 for Loyola. Neither school has reported an injury, though no availability news had surfaced as of Thursday.
What the schedules say
Both teams are 1-2, but the losses differ. Towson fell at Santa Clara, 40th in last season's final adjusted net ratings, and at Utah, then beat LIU 66-46 as a 6.5-point favorite. Loyola lost by 11 at Mount St. Mary's, 284th in that ranking, as a 6.25-point underdog, and it finished 325th in adjusted net efficiency last season.
Towson won last season's opener between these Baltimore-area programs. This one opens the inaugural 410 Invitational on Towson's floor, with the winner playing for the title Saturday night.
The number and the pace
The spread sits at Towson -13.5 with a total of 134.5, neither moving since our feed first logged the game. Low scoring has been the trend: Loyola is 0-2 on overs with a line, Towson 1-2. Towson plays at 68.7 possessions per 40 minutes, 261st, and its LIU win was a grinding game.
- Loyola's three-point percentage decides whether this stays within the number.
- Towson's turnovers forced versus its own giveaways shapes the margin.
- Towson at the line late could leave points behind.
Loyola (MD) Greyhounds vs Towson Tigers line movement and odds
| Book | Greyhounds ML | Tigers ML | Greyhounds spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +725 | -1200 | +13.5 (-105) | o138.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | +650 | -1250 | +13.5 (-112) | o138.5 (-112) |
| DraftKings | +700 | -1100 | +13.5 (-105) | o136.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | — | — | +14.5 (-115) | o137.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | +700 | -1100 | +14 (-115) | o137 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +720 | -1200 | +13.5 (-110) | o138.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | — | — | +13.5 (-110) | o135.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Loyola (MD) Greyhounds vs Towson Tigers
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: Loyola (MD) Greyhounds (1 wallet, $2). Largest: Infatuated-Flugelhorn $2 on Loyola (MD) Greyhounds.
Loyola (MD) Greyhounds vs Towson Tigers stats (this season)
| Stat | Loyola (MD) Greyhounds | Towson Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 102.4 (288th of 365) | 104.4 (257th of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 118.7 (336th of 365) | 104.0 (82nd of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -16.2 (325th of 365) | 0.5 (161st of 365) |
| Pace | 70.7 (183rd of 364) | 68.7 (261st of 364) |
| Effective FG% | 48.2% (277th of 364) | 46.2% (313th of 364) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 47.0% (161st of 364) | 47.2% (165th of 364) |
| Turnover rate | 17.0% (159th of 364) | 20.4% (284th of 364) |
| Offensive rebound % | 34.4% (167th of 364) | 37.3% (108th of 364) |
| 3-point % | 37.6% (87th of 364) | 34.5% (150th of 364) |
| Free throw rate | 22.8% (347th of 364) | 41.8% (100th of 364) |
Key players
- Leo Ricketts (Loyola Maryland): The junior-college transfer averages 17.7 points and has made 55.6% of his threes.
- Carter Berg-McLean (Loyola Maryland): He averages 6.0 assists and scored a career-high 17 against Washington College.
- Sebastien Emenalo (Loyola Maryland): He grabs 8.3 rebounds per game but is shooting 26.5% from the field.
- Zion Stanford (Towson): He averages 11.3 points with a team-high 28.4% usage rate but has shot 31.4%.
- Jaquan Womack (Towson): He leads Towson at 13.3 points and has made 6 of 12 threes.
- Christian Doerr (Towson): He averages 4.0 assists and had 7 assists with 8 rebounds against LIU.
Numbers that matter
| Loyola 3-point attempt rate | 51.3% | Loyola takes more than half its shots from three, 31st most nationally. |
|---|---|---|
| Towson opponent 3-point attempt rate | 51.2% | Towson's defense allows the 22nd-highest share of three-point attempts. |
| Loyola 2-point % | 39.6% | Ranks 350th, so Loyola has little to fall back on when threes miss. |
| Towson forced turnover rate | 22.3% | Ranks 83rd and is Towson's clearest edge against a passive Loyola defense. |
| Towson free throw % | 50.7% | Ranks 362nd of 364, a drag on a big favorite trying to close out. |
Loyola (MD) Greyhounds vs Towson Tigers: quick answers
Who is favored in Loyola (MD) Greyhounds vs Towson Tigers?
Towson is favored by 13.5 points (Towson -13.5).
What is the over/under for Loyola (MD) Greyhounds vs Towson Tigers?
The total is 134.5 points.
When is Loyola (MD) Greyhounds vs Towson Tigers?
Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Where is Loyola (MD) Greyhounds vs Towson Tigers played?
TU Arena, Towson, MD.
Has the line moved for Loyola (MD) Greyhounds vs Towson Tigers?
Yes: Loyola (MD) Greyhounds opened +14.5 and is now +13.5, and the total is still 138.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
What are proven bettors on in Loyola (MD) Greyhounds vs Towson Tigers?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: Loyola (MD) Greyhounds (1 wallet, $2). Largest: Infatuated-Flugelhorn $2 on Loyola (MD) Greyhounds. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.