Chicago St Cougars vs Loyola Marymount Lions prediction: Zion Sensley and LMU's rebuilt offense face a turnover-prone Chicago State
Loyola Marymount has scored in bunches with a nearly new roster, and Chicago State's habit of giving the ball away could hand the Lions even more chances.
| Spread | Loyola Marymount -16.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 142 |
- LMU should push the pace and build an early lead, with Chicago State's turnovers and cold shooting keeping it from closing the gap.
- Chicago State guard Mike Price, who uses 36.1% of possessions, against an LMU defense that clears the glass.
- No spread or total is posted yet; LMU averages 53.5 first-half points, 12th nationally, which will shape the total.
A new LMU that shoots
Stan Johnson is in his seventh season at Loyola Marymount, but this roster is barely recognizable. Players back from last season's 15-17 team account for only 20.0% of last year's minutes, so the old numbers say little about this group.
The new group has scored freely. LMU's effective field goal percentage, which counts threes as 1.5 makes, sits at 58.6%, 72nd in Division I. Zion Sensley, a transfer from UC Santa Barbara, leads the way at 21.0 points per game and has hit 9 of 15 from deep. Missouri transfer Jevon Porter adds 15.0 a night, and Andy Sigiscar has given the bench 13.5 points in just 16.0 minutes.
One caution: half of that sample is a 102-50 rout of Lincoln University, a team with no Division I rating. The more telling game was a 96-95 home loss to Queens, where LMU closed as a 6.5-point favorite and gave up a lot of points.
Chicago State's possession problem
Landon Bussie's second Chicago State team is even newer than LMU's, with returners holding just 7.7% of last season's minutes. The early results look like a team still learning to play together. The Cougars turn it over on 25.0% of possessions, 344th nationally, and they have made only 24.2% of their threes.
Much of the offense runs through Mike Price, the Cal State Bakersfield transfer. He scores 16.5 points per game on a 36.1% usage rate, but he needed 19 shots to get his 21 points in the win over Incarnate Word. When Price misses, there is little behind him. Chicago State's assist rate is 35.4%, 352nd, which means a lot of one-on-one basketball.
Second chances run one way
Chicago State's best route to an upset would be extra possessions, and LMU has closed that door so far. The Lions grab 80.0% of opponents' misses, 27th in the country. That is a bad matchup for a team that already shoots poorly and needs offensive rebounds to stay close.
At the other end, the Cougars have rebounded only 61.6% of opponents' misses, 324th. LMU also has the size edge, with a minutes-weighted average height of 78.2 inches against Chicago State's 76.4. Short possessions for the Cougars and long ones for the Lions could turn this into a lopsided game.
Tempo and an unset number
No line has been posted. When one appears, pace will matter. LMU plays at 78 possessions per 40 minutes, 39th nationally, and its game against Queens closed with a 162.5 total and went over.
Chicago State's two results show both extremes. It lost 109-59 at Texas, the over hit, and then won 66-54 at Incarnate Word as an 8.5-point underdog, where the under hit. The Cougars finished 7-25 last season, but that team is almost entirely gone.
- Whether Price can score efficiently against a longer LMU lineup
- Chicago State's turnover count before halftime
- How much Johnson leans on Sigiscar's production off the bench
Chicago St Cougars vs Loyola Marymount Lions line movement and odds
| Book | Cougars ML | Lions ML | Cougars spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1200 | -3000 | +18.5 (-110) | o141.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | +1050 | -3335 | +17.5 (-113) | o141.5 (-112) |
| DraftKings | +1200 | -2400 | +18.5 (-110) | o141.5 (-112) |
| ESPN BET | +1200 | -3000 | +17.5 (+100) | o141.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | +1300 | -2500 | +18 (-110) | o142 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +1200 | -3500 | +16.5 (-102) | o141.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1100 | -3000 | +17.5 (-110) | o141.5 (-110) |
| Kalshi (fee incl.) | +1074 | -1428 | — | o141.5 (-103) |
| Polymarket US (fee incl.) | +1050 | -1730 | — | o141.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Chicago St Cougars vs Loyola Marymount Lions
On the Kalshi moneyline: Chicago St Cougars: 71% of bets, 8% of the money; Loyola Marymount Lions: 29% of bets, 92% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Loyola Marymount Lions -16.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money; Chicago St Cougars +16.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 141.5: 67% of bets, 50% of the money; Under 141.5: 33% of bets, 50% of the money.
Chicago St Cougars vs Loyola Marymount Lions stats (this season)
| Stat | Chicago St Cougars | Loyola Marymount Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-3 | 1-3 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 106.4 (193rd of 364) | 108.8 (128th of 364) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 108.8 (251st of 364) | 115.6 (353rd of 364) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -2.4 (229th of 364) | -6.8 (303rd of 364) |
| Pace | 66.6 (303rd of 364) | 69.0 (241st of 364) |
| Effective FG% | 49.4% (246th of 364) | 52.9% (166th of 364) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 57.0% (336th of 364) | 51.7% (262nd of 364) |
| Turnover rate | 24.1% (350th of 364) | 13.0% (29th of 364) |
| Offensive rebound % | 35.6% (146th of 364) | 35.7% (143rd of 364) |
| 3-point % | 34.0% (166th of 364) | 29.1% (279th of 364) |
| Free throw rate | 40.6% (105th of 364) | 22.2% (349th of 364) |
Key players
- Zion Sensley (Loyola Marymount): Averaging 21.0 points and 9.5 rebounds with a 70% effective field goal mark.
- Jevon Porter (Loyola Marymount): Has made 6 of 9 threes on his way to 15.0 points per game.
- Andy Sigiscar (Loyola Marymount): Went 6-for-6 for 15 points and 10 rebounds against Queens.
- Mike Price (Chicago State): Leads the Cougars at 16.5 points per game with a 36.1% usage rate.
- Will Lovings-Watts (Chicago State): Averages 2.5 steals but went 3-of-11 from the field against Incarnate Word.
- Kameron Foman (Chicago State): Grabbed 7 rebounds in 21 minutes against Incarnate Word.
Numbers that matter
| Chicago State turnover rate | 25.0% | Ranks 344th nationally, which gives LMU extra possessions in a fast game. |
|---|---|---|
| LMU defensive rebound % | 80.0% | Ranks 27th and takes away the Cougars' best source of extra shots. |
| LMU effective FG% | 58.6% | Ranks 72nd, though the number is inflated by a rout of a non-Division I opponent. |
| Chicago State 3-point % | 24.2% | Ranks 326th and makes it hard for the Cougars to keep pace with a team that shoots this well. |
| LMU pace | 78 | Possessions per 40 minutes, 39th nationally, a key input for the total once it posts. |
Chicago St Cougars vs Loyola Marymount Lions: quick answers
Who is favored in Chicago St Cougars vs Loyola Marymount Lions?
Loyola Marymount is favored by 16.5 points (Loyola Marymount -16.5).
What is the over/under for Chicago St Cougars vs Loyola Marymount Lions?
The total is 142 points.
When is Chicago St Cougars vs Loyola Marymount Lions?
Sunday, November 15, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.
Where is Chicago St Cougars vs Loyola Marymount Lions played?
Gersten Pavilion, Los Angeles, CA.
Has the line moved for Chicago St Cougars vs Loyola Marymount Lions?
No: Chicago St Cougars has stayed at +17.5, and the total moved from 140.5 to 141.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Chicago St Cougars vs Loyola Marymount Lions?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Chicago St Cougars: 71% of bets, 8% of the money; Loyola Marymount Lions: 29% of bets, 92% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Loyola Marymount Lions -16.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money; Chicago St Cougars +16.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 141.5: 67% of bets, 50% of the money; Under 141.5: 33% of bets, 50% of the money.