Sacramento Kings vs New Orleans Pelicans prediction: Zion Williamson gets a Kings frontcourt stripped of its centers

Nobody left at the rim

Somebody's season gets its first win tonight in New Orleans. The Pelicans and Kings both arrive 0-4, and the clearest mismatch is easy to spot: one team scores inside better than anyone, and the other has almost no one left to stop it.

New Orleans leads the league with 57.5 points in the paint per game. Sacramento allows 55.5, the most in the NBA. Its block rate (blocks per opponent two-point attempt) sits at 4.9%, 29th of 30. Opponents are making 59.1% of their twos against the Kings.

The injury list explains a lot of it. Maxime Raynaud, last season's starting center, is out with a dislocated right knee and was due to be re-evaluated in about two weeks as of Oct. 26. Backup big Dylan Cardwell is also out with a calf strain. That leaves Domantas Sabonis to hold the middle. He was productive in Tuesday's loss at San Antonio, with 20 points and 14 rebounds.

Zion Williamson is the problem Sabonis has to solve. Williamson shot 60.0% from the floor last season and scored 25 against Denver on Wednesday. Derik Queen added 11 points and 12 rebounds in that game, so the Pelicans can come at the rim from two directions.

Two offenses that avoid the arc

Neither team wants to live behind the line. New Orleans ranks 30th in 3-point attempt rate, and Sacramento ranks 28th. Neither makes them, either: the Pelicans shoot 29.0% from deep and the Kings 30.2%. New Orleans went 7-of-30 from three in Wednesday's loss to Denver.

The Kings' perimeter defense is the wrinkle. Opponents are hitting 37.5% from three against Sacramento, and through four games the Kings rank last at both creating and preventing wide-open threes. Trey Murphy III, who made 37.9% of his threes last season, is the Pelican best placed to cash those open looks. If he gets going, the inside-out pressure could break the game open.

A Kings roster still finding itself

Sacramento returns only 57.4% of last season's minutes. DeMar DeRozan and Russell Westbrook are gone, and Keegan Murray is out with an ankle injury, set for re-evaluation in 10-to-14 days. Ben Simmons had surgery on a torn right Achilles and is out for the season.

The results show the churn. The Kings' offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions) of 104.1 ranks 25th, and their net efficiency is last in the league. De'Andre Hunter, who averaged 13.7 points for Cleveland last season, scored 24 at San Antonio. Zach LaVine and Malik Monk give Sacramento shot-making on the wing, but the Kings have not yet turned that into a working offense.

Tired legs, but a sharp line

Fatigue cuts against New Orleans. The Pelicans lost 104-91 to Denver at home Wednesday, so tonight is their second game in two nights. Sacramento had Wednesday off. First-year coach Jamahl Mosley is also juggling his guards: Jordan Poole left Wednesday's game with a left ankle injury and is listed as day-to-day, with his status for tonight unsettled. Yves Missi is out with a left knee bone bruise, which thins the frontcourt depth behind Williamson and Queen.

When the Pelicans do get downhill, they cash in. Their free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 32.5% ranks 6th, and they make 83.6% at the line, 4th in the league. Against a Kings defense that can't stop drives, that is a steady source of points even on tired legs.

Where the number sits

New Orleans is a 6-point favorite with a total of 237.5, and neither line has moved since our feed first recorded it Thursday morning. The Pelicans were underdogs in all four of their games so far, so this is the first time the market has trusted them.

Both teams are 3-1 to the over, and Sacramento's defense explains why totals keep landing high. The Kings allow 121.3 points per 100 possessions, 29th, and give up a league-worst 66.8 first-half points per game. The Kings are 1-3 against the spread. New Orleans won two of the three meetings last season, including a 120-94 home win in February.