Cleveland Cavaliers vs Atlanta Hawks prediction: Jalen Johnson's Hawks aim at Cleveland's soft paint on tired legs

Cleveland's paint problem

Both teams played Wednesday night, and only one of them had to get on a plane afterward. That puts a premium on easy baskets, and the easiest ones in this game should come at the rim.

The Hawks score 56.0 points in the paint per game, 3rd in the league. Cleveland allows 54.5, which ranks 28th of 30. That is the cleanest edge in the matchup.

The odd part is that the Cavaliers still swat plenty. Their block rate (blocks per opponent two-point attempt) is 12.9%, 4th in the NBA. Mobley and Allen are erasing some shots and still giving up the rest. Last season Cleveland allowed just 45.5 paint points a night, but this is a different group: only 63.6% of last season's minutes returned, with forwards Dean Wade and De'Andre Hunter gone.

Atlanta has its own leak at the rim. Its block rate ranks 28th, so Mobley and Allen will have chances to answer on the other end.

The turnover trade-off

Atlanta's defense makes its living with its hands. The Hawks force turnovers on 19.0% of opponent possessions, 2nd in the league. Cleveland coughs it up on 16.0% of its own trips, 17th, while a new backcourt still learns to share the ball.

That backcourt runs through James Harden, who averaged 8.0 assists for the Clippers last season. A tired, pass-heavy offense against Dyson Daniels and a ball-hawking defense is the kind of mix that produces runouts.

Cleveland's counter is the glass. Atlanta's defensive rebounding ranks 26th, and second chances are how a team erases the possessions it gives away with live-ball mistakes.

New faces, familiar engines

Cleveland swapped Darius Garland for Harden, who averaged 23.6 points for the Clippers last season, next to Donovan Mitchell, who scored 27.9 a night. Peyton Watson, a newcomer from Denver, hit 41.1% of his threes there last season and is expected to start.

Atlanta's offense is built on movement more than isolation. The Hawks lead the league in assist rate at 72.2% of made baskets. Johnson is the hub after averaging 22.5 points last season, and he is the player best equipped to punish Cleveland's interior off the dribble.

The depth chart got a jolt Wednesday. Rookie Kingston Flemings scored a career-high 23 in the loss to Miami, giving Quin Snyder another scorer off the bench.

Second night, different miles

The two teams arrive in opposite moods. Cleveland has won three straight but is 0-1 away from home. Atlanta has lost three in a row since a franchise-record rout of Charlotte and is 0-2 at State Farm Arena. The latest was a 129-117 loss to Miami in which a fourth-quarter rally fell short.

Atlanta is without Mouhamed Gueye, who had surgery on a fractured left foot and has an estimated return of Nov. 20, and Henri Veesaar, out for the season with a torn right ACL. Aaron Wiggins was questionable for the Miami game with a left knee contusion, and his status for Thursday hasn't been announced. Jock Landale is available after a nasal fracture.

Cleveland is without Nae'Qwan Tomlin (low back stress reaction). Khalifa Diop's status is unsettled, with reports split between a knee issue and a G League assignment. Allen was questionable before the opener with right patellar tendinopathy and has since been listed among the expected starters.

What the market sees

Books have Atlanta as a 1-point favorite, essentially a home-court bump, with a total of 238. Neither number has moved since our feed first recorded the game.

The total fits Atlanta's profile: its games have gone over in four of five. Cleveland has covered just once in four tries this season, failing even in wins over Brooklyn and Minnesota.

These teams split four meetings last season, and the home team won all of them, including a 124-102 Hawks rout in Atlanta in April.