Milwaukee Bucks vs New York Knicks prediction: Knicks' rebounding edge looms over a Bucks team losing six straight
Milwaukee arrives at Madison Square Garden at 1-9, and its weak defensive glass lines up against one of the league's best offensive rebounding teams.
New York Knicks covered the closing spread (Milwaukee Bucks +15.5). The game went under the closing total of 221.5.
- Proven wallets leaned New York Knicks on the moneyline (7 wallets, 88% one way): it won.
| Spread | New York Knicks -15.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 222 |
- Expect a slow, grinding game in which New York's extra possessions pile up and Milwaukee's long-range shooting has to carry everything.
- Watch Karl-Anthony Towns on the glass. He averages 13.6 rebounds, and the Bucks rank 27th in defensive rebound rate.
- Knicks -16 moved from -15.5. New York is 3-6 against the spread, so a big number still has to be earned.
The glass is the gap
The Bucks have plenty of problems at 1-9, but the one most likely to sink them tonight is the defensive glass. Milwaukee grabs 68.9% of available defensive rebounds, 27th in the league. The Knicks rebound 32.3% of their own misses, 3rd. Every one of those misses becomes a second chance against a defense already allowing 118.2 points per 100 possessions (28th).
The other end is closed. New York secures 77.0% of defensive rebounds, 2nd in the league, so Milwaukee's misses mostly end possessions. Karl-Anthony Towns is the engine of that edge. He is averaging 20.9 points and 13.6 rebounds on a 63.3% effective field goal percentage, a measure that counts threes as 1.5 makes. Myles Turner blocks 2.5 shots a night for Milwaukee, but he is shooting 34.6% from the field, and trade rumors linking him to a Kristaps Porzingis deal have followed him all week. Nothing has been completed.
Threes into a crowded perimeter
Milwaukee has built its offense on volume from deep. It takes 48.2% of its shots from three, 3rd most in the league, yet makes only 33.5% of them (24th). The inside offers no relief. The Bucks score 44.6 paint points per game (24th), and the Knicks allow just 38.4 (3rd).
New York does concede a lot of threes. Opponents take 47.5% of their shots from deep, the 3rd-highest share in the league, but they hit just 33.3% (10th). That leaves Milwaukee's game in the hands of its two best shooters. Tyler Herro is hitting 39.7% from three and Jaime Jaquez Jr. 42.5%. If either cools off, the Bucks have little else to lean on, and their 50.2 first-half points per game (30th) shows how often they fall behind early.
Two questionable names
Herro, Milwaukee's leading scorer at 21.4 points, is questionable with a right knee contusion. The team has not announced a timetable or said whether he would face a minutes limit if cleared. Without him, more of the load shifts to Jaquez, Kyle Kuzma and Ryan Rollins. Rollins is shooting 38.5% from the field. Gary Trent Jr. missed Sunday's game with an illness and was still listed day-to-day Tuesday.
The Bucks still look like a team searching for an identity after the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade. Rookie Brayden Burries has moved into the starting group, but he is making 22.2% of his threes.
For New York, Josh Hart is questionable with right ankle soreness after missing the last two games, though he took part in shooting drills Monday. Landry Shamet has started in his place and is shooting 41.7% from three. The Knicks face Cleveland on Wednesday, which could factor into how they handle Hart's return and how long the starters play in a lopsided game.
A big number in a slow game
New York is a 16-point favorite, up from -15.5 when our feed first recorded the line, with the total at 220. The Knicks play at the league's 29th-fastest pace and allow 104.2 points per game (2nd). Their games have gone under seven times in nine.
The spread is where it gets complicated. New York is 3-6 against the spread and failed to cover as a 14.5-point favorite against Brooklyn in a 103-90 win. The Knicks rank 27th in effective field goal percentage, which makes blowouts harder to build.
Milwaukee is 3-7 against the spread, and its lone cover in the last five came in a 102-109 loss at Boston. The last time these teams played, in February of last season, New York won 127-98 in Milwaukee.
Milwaukee Bucks vs New York Knicks line movement and odds
| Book | Bucks ML | Knicks ML | Bucks spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +700 | -1100 | +15.5 (-110) | o221.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +650 | -1115 | +15.5 (-117) | o220.5 (-115) |
| DraftKings | +670 | -1040 | +14.5 (-106) | o221.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | +750 | -1400 | +14.5 (-105) | o221.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +700 | -1100 | +15.5 (-110) | o222 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +750 | -1200 | +15.5 (-108) | o221.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +700 | -1200 | +15.5 (-110) | o221.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +700 | -1100 | +15.5 (-110) | o222.5 (+100) |
Where the money is on Milwaukee Bucks vs New York Knicks
On the Kalshi moneyline: Milwaukee Bucks: 44% of bets, 4% of the money; New York Knicks: 56% of bets, 96% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: New York Knicks -15.5: 58% of bets, 10% of the money; Milwaukee Bucks +15.5: 42% of bets, 90% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 222.5: 38% of bets, 85% of the money; Under 222.5: 62% of bets, 15% of the money.
Key players
- Tyler Herro (Milwaukee Bucks): Averaging 21.4 points on 39.7% from three this season while nursing a right knee contusion.
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. (Milwaukee Bucks): Scoring 15.2 points a game and shooting 42.5% from three this season.
- Myles Turner (Milwaukee Bucks): Blocking 2.5 shots a game this season but shooting just 34.6% from the field.
- Jalen Brunson (New York Knicks): Averaging 26.2 points and 5.6 assists this season, including 31 points in the win at Cleveland.
- Karl-Anthony Towns (New York Knicks): Putting up 20.9 points and 13.6 rebounds a game on a 63.3% effective field goal percentage this season.
- Josh Hart (New York Knicks): Averaging 7.3 rebounds and 2.1 steals this season, but has missed the last two games with right ankle soreness.
Numbers that matter
| Knicks offensive rebound % | 32.3% | 3rd in the league, against a Bucks defense that ranks 27th at finishing possessions with a rebound. |
|---|---|---|
| Bucks 3-point attempt rate | 48.2% | 3rd most in the league, though Milwaukee makes only 33.5% of those shots. |
| Knicks points allowed per game | 104.2 | 2nd in the league, a big reason seven of New York's nine games have gone under. |
| Spread | -16 | New York's line rose from -15.5, even though the Knicks are 3-6 against the spread. |
| Bucks first-half points per game | 50.2 | Last in the league, which points to an early hole for Milwaukee. |
Milwaukee Bucks vs New York Knicks: quick answers
What was the final score of Milwaukee Bucks vs New York Knicks?
Milwaukee Bucks 85, New York Knicks 117 (final). New York Knicks covered the closing spread (Milwaukee Bucks +15.5). The game went under the closing total of 221.5.
Who is favored in Milwaukee Bucks vs New York Knicks?
New York Knicks is favored by 15.5 points (New York Knicks -15.5).
What is the over/under for Milwaukee Bucks vs New York Knicks?
The total is 222 points.
When is Milwaukee Bucks vs New York Knicks?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 7:40 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Milwaukee Bucks vs New York Knicks?
Yes: Milwaukee Bucks opened +14.5 and is now +15.5, and the total is still 221.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Milwaukee Bucks vs New York Knicks?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Milwaukee Bucks: 44% of bets, 4% of the money; New York Knicks: 56% of bets, 96% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: New York Knicks -15.5: 58% of bets, 10% of the money; Milwaukee Bucks +15.5: 42% of bets, 90% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 222.5: 38% of bets, 85% of the money; Under 222.5: 62% of bets, 15% of the money.