Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers prediction: Jaylen Brown's first shot at the Celtics comes with first place on the line
Brown and Tatum share a floor as opponents for the first time in a regular-season game, but Boston's three-point barrage against Philadelphia's perimeter defense may decide the night.
Boston Celtics covered the closing spread (Boston Celtics -1.5). The game went over the closing total of 217.5.
- Proven wallets leaned the Under on the total (9 wallets, 75% one way): it lost.
| Spread | Boston Celtics -1.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 217.5 |
- Expect a grinding, half-court game: Boston plays slow and Philadelphia defends the arc well, so possessions get decided at the rim and on the glass.
- Boston's three-point volume against a Sixers defense holding opponents to 31.6% from deep, 3rd-best in the league.
- Boston moved from a slight underdog to a 1-point favorite, and the total climbed to 218 despite both teams going under eight times.
The trade comes home
The East's top two teams arrive with the standings and a fresh grudge in play. Philadelphia sits first at 9-2, Boston second at 8-2, and the Sixers are the team that came back from 3-1 down to win last spring's first-round series, closing it 109-100 in Game 7 at TD Garden.
Now Jaylen Brown wears the other jersey. Boston traded him to Philadelphia for Paul George and draft picks, and this is his first regular-season meeting with Jayson Tatum since. Tatum waved it off as just the Celtics versus the Sixers. Brown has fit in fast, averaging 22.3 points and shooting 39.2% from three.
The swap has been kind to Boston too. George is scoring 20.4 points on 42.5% from deep, giving the Celtics a second creator while Tatum's shot sorts itself out. Tatum leads the team with 27.1 points and 7.8 assists, but he is making just 31.3% of his threes.
Boston's threes against Philly's arc
Boston lives behind the line. Its 3-point attempt rate (share of shots taken from deep) of 47.2% ranks 6th, and it converts 37.6%, 5th in the league. Inside the arc the Celtics struggle, ranking 27th in paint points.
That runs straight into Philadelphia's best trait. The Sixers hold opponents to 31.6% from three, 3rd of 30. If that wall holds, Boston has to find offense where it has been weakest.
The Sixers' own path runs the other way. They rank 25th in 3-point attempt rate, while Boston allows the most three-point attempts in the league but gives up the fewest paint points of any team. Philadelphia's preferred shots are exactly what Boston takes away, which helps explain why the Celtics' net efficiency (point margin per 100 possessions) ranks 2nd and the Sixers' ranks 14th.
Possessions and the glass
Philadelphia rarely gives the ball away. Its turnover rate of 12.6 per 100 possessions is the league's best, which blunts a Boston defense that forces turnovers at the 5th-highest rate.
The Celtics can win extra possessions elsewhere. Their offensive rebound rate (share of their own misses they recover) of 31.8% ranks 4th, and Philadelphia's thin frontcourt makes that edge sharper. The Sixers, meanwhile, rank 29th on the offensive glass, so they are unlikely to punish Boston's soft defensive rebounding.
Embiid and a short frontcourt
Joel Embiid's status is unsettled. One Tuesday report lists him as probable, another says he isn't on the injury report at all, and a third called his right-foot management unconfirmed. He has struggled anyway, shooting 38.0% while averaging 17.9 points and 9.7 rebounds.
The bigs behind him are thinning. Adem Bona (back) is out for this game, Dominick Barlow (back) is out after Nick Nurse said Nov. 4 he likely needed another 10-12 days, and Ariel Hukporti is done for the season with a ruptured Achilles. If Embiid sits, Boston's offensive rebounding edge would grow.
Boston is missing only Devin Carter, out with mononucleosis. The Celtics play at Toronto on Wednesday, so watch for minutes management late if this one gets away. LeBron James, now a Sixer, is close to passing Jason Kidd for third all-time in assists this week.
A total that keeps rising
The market has drifted Boston's way. Our feed first saw Philadelphia as a half-point home favorite; the Celtics are now favored by 1 across 11 books.
The total moved from 215.5 to 218, which runs against the evidence. Boston is 2-8 to the over and Philadelphia 3-8, and the Celtics rank 28th in pace. Last season's meetings were tight: 117-116, 109-108 and 102-100 in three of the four.
Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers line movement and odds
| Book | Celtics ML | 76ers ML | Celtics spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -125 | +105 | -1.5 (-110) | o217.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | -122 | +100 | -1.5 (-109) | o218.5 (-107) |
| DraftKings | -124 | +105 | -1.5 (-114) | o216.5 (-113) |
| ESPN BET | -130 | +110 | -2.5 (-105) | o217.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | -125 | +105 | -2 (-110) | o217.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -130 | +110 | -1.5 (-122) | o217.5 (-106) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -120 | +100 | -1.5 (-110) | o217.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | -120 | +100 | -2 (-110) | o217 (-120) |
Where the money is on Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers
On the Kalshi moneyline: Boston Celtics: 29% of bets, 45% of the money; Philadelphia 76ers: 71% of bets, 55% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Boston Celtics -1.5: 40% of bets, 68% of the money; Philadelphia 76ers +1.5: 60% of bets, 32% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 217.5: 73% of bets, 66% of the money; Under 217.5: 27% of bets, 34% of the money.
Key players
- Jayson Tatum (Boston Celtics): Averaging 27.1 points and 7.8 assists this season, but shooting only 31.3% from three.
- Paul George (Boston Celtics): Scoring 20.4 points on 42.5% three-point shooting with 2.3 steals a game this season.
- Sam Hauser (Boston Celtics): Hitting 40.4% of his threes this season, a key test against Philadelphia's perimeter defense.
- Tyrese Maxey (Philadelphia 76ers): Leads the Sixers with 26.9 points in 36.5 minutes a night this season.
- Jaylen Brown (Philadelphia 76ers): Averaging 22.3 points and 6.7 rebounds this season after the trade from Boston.
- Joel Embiid (Philadelphia 76ers): Shooting 38.0% from the field this season while averaging 9.7 rebounds.
- LeBron James (Philadelphia 76ers): Averaging 6.7 assists this season as he closes in on third place all-time.
Numbers that matter
| Boston 3-point % | 37.6% | 5th in the league, the Celtics' main weapon on a 3-heavy shot diet. |
|---|---|---|
| Philly opponent 3-point % | 31.6% | 3rd-best in the league, directly opposing Boston's strength. |
| Philly turnover rate | 12.6 | Best in the league, neutralizing a Boston defense that forces turnovers at the 5th-highest rate. |
| Boston offensive rebound % | 31.8% | 4th in the league against a Sixers frontcourt missing three bigs. |
| Total | 218 | Up from 215.5 even though both teams have gone under in eight games. |
Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers: quick answers
What was the final score of Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers?
Boston Celtics 123, Philadelphia 76ers 101 (final). Boston Celtics covered the closing spread (Boston Celtics -1.5). The game went over the closing total of 217.5.
Who is favored in Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers?
Boston Celtics is favored by 1.5 points (Boston Celtics -1.5).
What is the over/under for Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers?
The total is 217.5 points.
When is Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers?
Yes: Boston Celtics opened +1.5 and is now -1.5, and the total moved from 216.5 to 217.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Boston Celtics: 29% of bets, 45% of the money; Philadelphia 76ers: 71% of bets, 55% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Boston Celtics -1.5: 40% of bets, 68% of the money; Philadelphia 76ers +1.5: 60% of bets, 32% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 217.5: 73% of bets, 66% of the money; Under 217.5: 27% of bets, 34% of the money.