Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans prediction: Jokic and Murray catch a battered Pelicans team on zero rest
New Orleans plays its second game in two nights with a thinned roster and the league's worst interior defense, against a rested Denver offense built to punish both.
New Orleans Pelicans covered the closing spread (Denver Nuggets -12.5). The game went under the closing total of 235.5.
| Spread | Denver Nuggets -12.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 236 |
- Denver should control the interior while a short-handed New Orleans pushes pace and hunts free throws to keep the game within reach.
- Zion Williamson's drives will test a Denver defense that allows the fewest free throws relative to shot attempts in the league.
- Denver is favored by 11.5 with a 234.5 total, both unchanged; New Orleans has gone over in 9 of 13 games.
A roster coming apart
New Orleans has lost five straight, four of them by at least 16 points. Friday's 142-111 NBA Cup loss to Memphis came the same day Dejounte Murray requested a trade. He sat that game with a left ankle sprain. Now the Pelicans turn around on the second night of a back-to-back against a Denver team coming off three days of rest.
The injury list compounds it. Murray, Trey Murphy III, Yves Missi, Trendon Watford and Bryce McGowens were all out Friday, and Bennedict Mathurin was doubtful with a right thumb sprain. The Pelicans had not filed a report for this game as of Saturday's latest update, so every one of those statuses is unsettled. Murphy is the one to track: he averages 15.6 points on 37.7% from three for a team that ranks 27th in 3-point percentage.
Denver is without Julian Strawther, out with a left knee sprain. Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson and Christian Braun were all listed available for the Nov. 9 game at Houston, and no newer Nuggets status has surfaced.
Nowhere to hide inside
The Pelicans allow 118.5 points per 100 possessions, 29th in the league. The damage comes inside. Opponents make 60.3% of their twos against New Orleans, the worst mark of all 30 teams, and score 53.2 paint points a game (28th).
That is the wrong defense to bring to Denver. The Nuggets make 56.2% of their twos, 6th in the league, and Jokic runs the offense from the post and the elbows, averaging 9.0 assists. His jumper hasn't fallen this season, so expect him to work closer to the rim against a frontcourt that may again be missing Missi.
The perimeter threat is Jamal Murray. He leads Denver at 26.2 points a game and is shooting 51.3% from three on 78 attempts. He scored 38 in the Nov. 9 loss at Houston, a game Adelman summed up with "It killed us tonight." Denver bounced back with a win at Memphis two nights later.
The whistle standoff
New Orleans' best weapon collides head-on with Denver's best defensive trait. The Pelicans lead the league in free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) at 37.2%, and they convert at 83.4%, 2nd in the league. Denver's defense ranks 1st at keeping opponents off the line.
Zion Williamson is the engine of that attack. He averages 21.8 points on 60.7% shooting, and the Pelicans lead the league with 56.5 paint points a game. If Denver walls him off without fouling, New Orleans has little fallback: it takes threes at the lowest rate in the league.
and guard Jeremiah Fears, who added 18 points and seven assists.
Tempo and the number
The pace gap is wide. New Orleans plays at 106.0 possessions a game, 3rd fastest, and ranks 3rd in fast-break scoring. Denver plays at 100.0, 26th, and ranks 27th in fast-break points. The Pelicans need a track meet; the Nuggets would rather grind possessions through Jokic.
The market hasn't budged. Denver was -11.5 when our feed first saw the game and is still there, with the total holding at 234.5. New Orleans' games have gone over 9 times in 13, a product of a defense that gives up 125.6 points a game, 29th. The Pelicans also failed to cover in each of their last five.
Denver has won the last five meetings, including both this season: 141-135 at home on Oct. 24 and 104-91 in New Orleans four days later. The Nuggets are 5-5 against the spread, so this number asks them to do something they haven't done consistently: win big.
Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans line movement and odds
| Book | Nuggets ML | Pelicans ML | Nuggets spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -625 | +450 | -12.5 (-105) | o236.5 (-105) |
| BetRivers | -715 | +480 | -12.5 (-110) | o236.5 (-108) |
| DraftKings | -650 | +470 | -12.5 (-105) | o235.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | -750 | +475 | -12.5 (-105) | o234.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | -600 | +430 | -12.5 (-105) | o236 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -620 | +460 | -12.5 (-106) | o235.5 (-112) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -700 | +500 | -12.5 (-110) | o235.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | -600 | +430 | -12 (-105) | o236.5 (-105) |
Where the money is on Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans
On the Kalshi moneyline: Denver Nuggets: 66% of bets, 95% of the money; New Orleans Pelicans: 34% of bets, 5% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Denver Nuggets -12.5: 64% of bets, 90% of the money; New Orleans Pelicans +12.5: 36% of bets, 10% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 235.5: 42% of bets, 42% of the money; Under 235.5: 58% of bets, 58% of the money.
Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans stats (this season)
| Stat | Denver Nuggets | New Orleans Pelicans |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 | 4-9 |
| Offensive efficiency | 114.5 (8th of 30) | 109.8 (18th of 30) |
| Defensive efficiency | 113.3 (22nd of 30) | 118.5 (29th of 30) |
| Net efficiency | 1.2 (15th of 30) | -8.6 (25th of 30) |
| Pace | 100.0 (26th of 30) | 106.0 (3rd of 30) |
| Effective FG% | 55.0% (8th of 30) | 52.2% (21st of 30) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 54.3% (19th of 30) | 57.2% (28th of 30) |
| Turnover rate | 13.3% (5th of 30) | 15.5% (18th of 30) |
| Offensive rebound % | 24.8% (22nd of 30) | 24.2% (26th of 30) |
| 3-point % | 35.4% (14th of 30) | 32.2% (27th of 30) |
| Points in the paint per game | 48.2 (12th of 30) | 56.5 (1st of 30) |
Key players
- Jamal Murray (Denver Nuggets): Murray averages 26.2 points this season and is shooting 51.3% from three.
- Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets): Jokic is averaging 23.5 points, 10.8 rebounds and 9.0 assists this season, though he is shooting 23.3% from three.
- Cameron Johnson (Denver Nuggets): Johnson is hitting 43.2% of his threes in seven games this season.
- Zion Williamson (New Orleans Pelicans): Williamson averages 21.8 points on 60.7% shooting this season.
- Saddiq Bey (New Orleans Pelicans): Bey averages 16.5 points with 38.9% shooting from three and scored 30 in Friday's loss to Memphis.
- Jeremiah Fears (New Orleans Pelicans): Fears averages 15.5 points and 5.1 assists while starting all 13 games.
Numbers that matter
| Pelicans opponent 2-point % | 60.3% | Worst in the league, against a Denver offense that ranks 6th in 2-point shooting. |
|---|---|---|
| Pelicans free throw rate | 37.2% | First in the league, but Denver's defense ranks 1st at keeping opponents off the line. |
| Pelicans pace | 106.0 | Third fastest, against a Denver team that ranks 26th in possessions per game. |
| Spread | -11.5 | Denver's number has not moved since our feed first saw the game. |
| Pelicans over/under record | 9-4 | New Orleans games have mostly gone over, with the total sitting at 234.5. |
Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans: quick answers
What was the final score of Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans?
Denver Nuggets 116, New Orleans Pelicans 108 (final). New Orleans Pelicans covered the closing spread (Denver Nuggets -12.5). The game went under the closing total of 235.5.
Who is favored in Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans?
Denver Nuggets is favored by 12.5 points (Denver Nuggets -12.5).
What is the over/under for Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans?
The total is 236 points.
When is Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 7:10 PM ET.
Where is Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans played?
Smoothie King Center, New Orleans.
Has the line moved for Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans?
Yes: Denver Nuggets opened -11.5 and is now -12.5, and the total moved from 233.5 to 235.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Denver Nuggets: 66% of bets, 95% of the money; New Orleans Pelicans: 34% of bets, 5% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Denver Nuggets -12.5: 64% of bets, 90% of the money; New Orleans Pelicans +12.5: 36% of bets, 10% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 235.5: 42% of bets, 42% of the money; Under 235.5: 58% of bets, 58% of the money.