Dallas Mavericks vs Cleveland Cavaliers prediction: Kyrie Irving returns to a Cleveland team running on fumes
Irving's homecoming lands on the night the Cavaliers, stranded in Miami and playing the second half of a back-to-back, may be without most of their core.
Cleveland Cavaliers covered the closing spread (Dallas Mavericks -8.5). The game went over the closing total of 227.5.
| Spread | Dallas Mavericks -8.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 227.5 |
- Dallas should control the glass and the paint against a Cleveland frontcourt missing Evan Mobley, unless Mitchell and Harden play and the Cavaliers' threes fall.
- Daniel Gafford and the Dallas offensive boards against a Cavaliers frontline without Mobley and possibly without Jarrett Allen.
- Cleveland was a 1.5-point favorite when our feed first saw this game; Dallas is now -8.5. Cleveland is 4-9 against the spread.
Cleveland's bruised second night
Kyrie Irving's first game in Cleveland since February 27, 2024 was supposed to be the story. Instead, the Cavaliers may not have enough healthy bodies to give him a proper welcome. Cleveland lost 133-121 in Miami on Friday, was stranded there overnight when flights were grounded, and now plays the second night of a back-to-back with its core in doubt.
Evan Mobley has been ruled out with a left toe sprain, which removes a center who has averaged 16.9 points this season. Donovan Mitchell (left knee bruise), James Harden (left calf tightness), Jarrett Allen (right knee) and Peyton Watson (right hamstring) are all listed as questionable. Mitchell openly questioned the wisdom of playing this game, and Harden logged nearly 35 minutes in Miami. Sam Merrill is out, and Nae'Qwan Tomlin remains sidelined with a back injury.
If Cleveland rests its stars, the lineup could be Tyrese Proctor, Meleek Thomas, Jaylon Tyson, Mario Hezonja and Thomas Bryant. Khalifa Diop is off the injury report and could make his NBA debut if Allen joins Mobley on the inactive list.
Irving and Flagg need a reset
Dallas has its own wound to lick. The Mavericks lost 133-94 in Minnesota on Thursday, a night when Cooper Flagg and Irving combined for 10 points. Dusty May said the Timberwolves put body on body on his two scorers. Flagg appeared to tweak his right foot or ankle early in that game, but he is not on Saturday's injury report.
Over the full season, the pair has carried the offense. Flagg averages 24.6 points and 6.5 assists, and Irving scores 21.6 a night while hitting 39.0% from three.
The Mavericks are thin as well. Dereck Lively II (foot surgery), Tarik Biberovic and Sergio de Larrea are out. Max Christie's left ankle sprain has his status unsettled, with listings ranging from day-to-day to doubtful, and Morez Johnson Jr.'s shin leaves his status unsettled, listed anywhere from probable to a game-time decision. The expected Dallas starters are Irving, Caleb Martin, Flagg, P.J. Washington and Gafford.
Extra possessions tilt to Dallas
The Mavericks' best edge is the offensive glass. They grab 29.4% of their own misses (offensive rebound rate), 7th in the league. Cleveland's defensive rebounding ranks 14th with Mobley and Allen both available, and it will be without Mobley and may be without Allen tonight. Gafford shoots 70.5% from the field, so every putback chance he gets against Bryant or Diop is valuable.
Turnovers usually count against Dallas, which ranks 22nd in turnover rate (giveaways per 100 possessions). Cleveland is poorly built to exploit that: its defense forces turnovers at the lowest rate in the league, 30th of 30. Dallas's sloppiness should cost less here than usual.
Threes are Cleveland's way in
If the Cavaliers keep this close, it will be from deep. They take 47.1% of their shots from three, 8th-most in the league. Dallas defends the arc well, though, holding opponents to 32.8% from three (7th). A lineup built around Proctor, Thomas and Hezonja does not carry the same threat as one with Mitchell and Harden, so the shooters who actually suit up matter more than Cleveland's season numbers.
The market has already reacted
The market has already reacted When our feed first saw this game, Cleveland was a 1.5-point favorite at home. The line now sits at Dallas -8.5, and the total has fallen from 231.5 to 227.5 as the injury news piled up.
The records point the same way. Dallas has covered in 7 of 12 games, and its games have gone under in 8 of 12. Cleveland is 4-9 against the spread. The two teams split two meetings last March, each winning on the other's floor. The final lineup cards will decide how much of that history matters tonight.
Dallas Mavericks vs Cleveland Cavaliers line movement and odds
| Book | Mavericks ML | Cavaliers ML | Mavericks spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -350 | +275 | -8.5 (-110) | o227.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | -315 | +250 | -8.5 (-109) | o227.5 (-113) |
| DraftKings | -344 | +276 | -8.5 (-107) | o228.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | -340 | +270 | -7.5 (-120) | o227.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | -350 | +275 | -8.5 (-105) | o228 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -375 | +300 | -8.5 (-114) | o227.5 (-108) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -350 | +275 | -8.5 (-110) | o227.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | -365 | +285 | -8.5 (-115) | o228 (-115) |
Where the money is on Dallas Mavericks vs Cleveland Cavaliers
On the Kalshi moneyline: Dallas Mavericks: 50% of bets, 95% of the money; Cleveland Cavaliers: 50% of bets, 5% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Dallas Mavericks -7.5: 76% of bets, 92% of the money; Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5: 24% of bets, 8% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 227.5: 62% of bets, 79% of the money; Under 227.5: 38% of bets, 22% of the money.
Dallas Mavericks vs Cleveland Cavaliers stats (this season)
| Stat | Dallas Mavericks | Cleveland Cavaliers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-5 | 6-7 |
| Offensive efficiency | 110.3 (16th of 30) | 113.8 (10th of 30) |
| Defensive efficiency | 109.3 (11th of 30) | 112.9 (21st of 30) |
| Net efficiency | 1.0 (17th of 30) | 1.0 (16th of 30) |
| Pace | 102.6 (15th of 30) | 102.6 (16th of 30) |
| Effective FG% | 53.9% (14th of 30) | 55.3% (6th of 30) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 53.1% (15th of 30) | 52.8% (13th of 30) |
| Turnover rate | 16.1% (22nd of 30) | 12.9% (3rd of 30) |
| Offensive rebound % | 29.4% (7th of 30) | 24.2% (24th of 30) |
| 3-point % | 33.7% (21st of 30) | 37.0% (8th of 30) |
| Points in the paint per game | 48.3 (11th of 30) | 44.9 (20th of 30) |
Key players
- Cooper Flagg (Dallas Mavericks): Averages 24.6 points and 6.5 assists this season, though he is shooting 30.0% from three.
- Kyrie Irving (Dallas Mavericks): Scoring 21.6 points per game this season on 39.0% three-point shooting.
- Daniel Gafford (Dallas Mavericks): Shooting 70.5% from the field with 1.8 blocks in 21.6 minutes this season.
- P.J. Washington (Dallas Mavericks): Averaging 14.2 points and 7.2 rebounds while starting all 12 games this season.
- Donovan Mitchell (Cleveland Cavaliers): Leads Cleveland with 23.0 points per game this season and scored 25 in Miami on Friday.
- James Harden (Cleveland Cavaliers): Averaging 16.9 points and 5.8 assists this season, but shooting 39.0% from the field.
- Jarrett Allen (Cleveland Cavaliers): Pulls down 8.3 rebounds per game this season, the frontcourt anchor with Mobley out.
- Mario Hezonja (Cleveland Cavaliers): Averages 7.5 points in 18.2 minutes off the bench this season and could start if the regulars rest.
Numbers that matter
| Spread movement | -1.5 to Dallas -5 | Cleveland was favored when our feed first saw the game; the injury news flipped the line toward Dallas. |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas offensive rebound rate | 29.4% | Ranks 7th, against a Cleveland frontcourt missing Mobley and possibly Allen. |
| Cleveland forced turnover rate rank | 30th | The league's least disruptive defense is unlikely to punish Dallas's 22nd-ranked ball security. |
| Dallas opponent 3-point % | 32.8% | A 7th-ranked perimeter defense against a Cleveland team that takes the 8th-most threes. |
| Dallas over/under record | 4-8 | Dallas games have gone under in 8 of 12, and the total has already dropped from 231.5 to 228. |
Dallas Mavericks vs Cleveland Cavaliers: quick answers
What was the final score of Dallas Mavericks vs Cleveland Cavaliers?
Dallas Mavericks 117, Cleveland Cavaliers 127 (final). Cleveland Cavaliers covered the closing spread (Dallas Mavericks -8.5). The game went over the closing total of 227.5.
Who is favored in Dallas Mavericks vs Cleveland Cavaliers?
Dallas Mavericks is favored by 8.5 points (Dallas Mavericks -8.5).
What is the over/under for Dallas Mavericks vs Cleveland Cavaliers?
The total is 227.5 points.
When is Dallas Mavericks vs Cleveland Cavaliers?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 7:40 PM ET.
Where is Dallas Mavericks vs Cleveland Cavaliers played?
Rocket Arena, Cleveland.
Has the line moved for Dallas Mavericks vs Cleveland Cavaliers?
Yes: Dallas Mavericks opened +3.5 and is now -8.5, and the total moved from 231.5 to 227.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Dallas Mavericks vs Cleveland Cavaliers?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Dallas Mavericks: 50% of bets, 95% of the money; Cleveland Cavaliers: 50% of bets, 5% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Dallas Mavericks -7.5: 76% of bets, 92% of the money; Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5: 24% of bets, 8% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 227.5: 62% of bets, 79% of the money; Under 227.5: 38% of bets, 22% of the money.