Winnipeg Jets vs Florida Panthers prediction: Jets drag a back-to-back and an unsettled crease into Florida

A crease in transition

A week after trading Connor Hellebuyck to New Jersey, Winnipeg is still figuring out who stops the puck. Thursday in Tampa, Stuart Skinner was pulled after allowing five goals on 21 shots in two periods, and Nico Daws stopped all nine shots he saw in his Jets debut. The Jets lost 6-4.

Now comes the second night of a back-to-back, and Daws is the probable starter. Neither team has confirmed its goalie. Daws arrives with a .884 save percentage and 2.57 goals-against average from five games with the Devils this season, numbers that won't scare a Florida team that just scored five on Winnipeg.

Akira Schmid is expected to start for Florida with Jacob Markstrom on injured reserve. Schmid's season line is modest, a .885 save percentage, but he made 24 saves in Tuesday's win in Winnipeg.

Florida lives on the power play

The Panthers play a heavy, physical game, leading the league in hits, and they draw penalties at a rate no one matches: 4.69 power plays per game, 1st of 32. Their power play (goals per opportunity) converts at 23.0%, 11th. That runs straight into a Winnipeg penalty kill that ranks 23rd at 73.5%.

The edge cuts both ways. Florida is shorthanded more than any team, 32nd at 4.23 times per game. Winnipeg can't punish it yet: the Jets' power play sits 25th at 17.1% and had gone 0-for-12 over four games entering Tuesday's meeting.

Tuesday's tape and the shot gap

Florida won 5-1 in Winnipeg on Tuesday, scoring three goals in the first period and never looking back. The broader numbers explain why. The Panthers hold a 53.9% shot share (their share of all shots in their games), 9th in the league, and allow just 24.2 shots per game, 3rd.

Winnipeg scores 2.46 goals per game, 28th, and leans heavily on Kyle Connor, who has 10 goals on 55 shots. Florida's attack is broader. Matthew Tkachuk has 20 points, and Brady Tkachuk, acquired from Ottawa in June, leads the team with eight goals. Paul Maurice, who coached the Jets for parts of nine seasons, gets another look at his old club.

Missing bodies on both benches

Florida is playing without Aleksander Barkov and Brad Marchand, both on injured reserve and both back on skates this week; Maurice put Marchand about three weeks away. Markstrom skated Thursday and Maurice called him "not far off," though no return date is set. Jonah Gadjovich is also out.

Winnipeg is missing defenseman Josh Morrissey, forward Vladislav Namestnikov and Nick Bjugstad, all on injured reserve, and defenseman Garrett Brown was still listed out Friday. Losing Morrissey hurts a blue line that already allows 28.9 shots per game, 24th.

What the market sees

Florida is a -220 moneyline favorite, with Winnipeg at +180 and the Panthers at -1.5 on the puck line. The total has climbed to 6.0 from 5.5 when our feed first saw the game.

That move pushes against the Jets' profile: their games have gone under 9 of 13 times, and Florida's have gone under 8 of 13. Winnipeg is 7-6 on the puck line, while Florida is just 4-9 covering -1.5.