Buffalo Sabres vs San Jose Sharks prediction: Colten Ellis returns to face San Jose's surging power play

Ellis walks into the fire

Colten Ellis hasn't played in a game since Oct. 12, and his reward for the wait is a late-night start in San Jose. Buffalo arrives as the road favorite anyway, which says a lot about how the market views the Sharks and not much about how the Sabres have kept pucks out of their own net.

Ellis took the starter's crease at the morning skate and is the probable starter, though the team hasn't formally confirmed it. His save percentage sits at 86.4% across three appearances, and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen hasn't been better at 86.6%. As a team, Buffalo's save percentage ranks 30th of 32. Eleven games is a small sample, but no Sabres goalie has offered a reason to trust it yet.

San Jose's crease is murkier. Yaroslav Askarov is listed as the probable starter, while a Monday projection had Alex Nedeljkovic in net, and the Sharks haven't named their goalie. The numbers favor Nedeljkovic at 90.3% against Askarov's 88.3%, so watch warmups.

Where the game tilts: special teams

This is the matchup most likely to decide the night. San Jose's power play (power-play goals per opportunity) converts at 26.8%, 6th in the league. Buffalo's penalty kill stops just 69.2% of chances, 27th.

The Sabres also hand out opportunities freely, going shorthanded 3.55 times per game, which ranks 27th. Their own power play offers no counterpunch at 10.5%, second-worst in the NHL. If this game turns into a parade to the box, the special teams gap is the cleanest edge either team owns.

Celebrini against Buffalo's finishers

Macklin Celebrini drives everything for San Jose, with 15 points in 10 games. He centers a projected top line with Ivar Stenberg and Will Smith, and that trio will see plenty of a Buffalo defense missing bodies.

Buffalo's offense runs through Jack Quinn, who has six goals. Tage Thompson leads the team with 45 shots, and San Jose gives up plenty of looks: the Sharks allow 30.3 shots per game, 28th in the league. If Buffalo can tilt the ice, Thompson's volume has room to pay off against a goalie who may be uncertain until warmups.

Absences and history

Buffalo is thin. Jiri Kulich is out in concussion protocol as of Monday. Goalie Alex Lyon remains on injured reserve after a setback announced Oct. 15, with conflicting reports on a return. Defensemen Matt Grzelcyk, Conor Timmins and Jack Rathbone are all on injured reserve.

San Jose is without Igor Chernyshov and Alexander Wennberg, both called week-to-week last week, while Adam Gaudette returned Saturday.

History favors the visitors: Buffalo has won seven of the last eight meetings, including a 5-0 shutout in San Jose last March. These Sabres have also lived in extra time, with four of their last five games going to overtime.

What the market sees

Buffalo is -148 on the moneyline, with San Jose at +125 and +1.5 on the puck line. Neither the puck line nor the total of 6.5 has moved since our feed first saw the game.

That overtime habit matters for the puck line, since one-goal finishes cover the +1.5 side. The total leans on both defenses: Buffalo games have gone over 7 times in 11, and San Jose's 7 overs in 12 tell a similar story.